Yes. States like FL and TX will be back to near normal in no time, but CA? I think it will be a while.Think you are right. The IFR is going to drop to the equivalent of a bad flu season within a couple months even with some states like CA and NY dragging its feet with the elderly.
On the other side of the ledger though you have a system which is entirely built into cases (though the WHO might help with that with the new advice that just came out), kids vaccines no where on the horizon, mass vaccination of the non-elderly held up until we get either the AZ or JJ vaccines approved, a Biden task force heavily focused on prolockdowners, and health advisers that want to be masked up and restricted until 2022 at the earliest. Also, because those children vaccines won't be here any time soon, and because the "experimental" label won't be removed from the vaccine any time soon, the COVID cases aren't disappearing any time soon (they'll floor over the summer and then we'll experience outbreaks in the fall/winter again).
The actual emergency will be all but over in the next 2-3 months. From there on out everything is just plain political.