Good News Thread

Think you are right. The IFR is going to drop to the equivalent of a bad flu season within a couple months even with some states like CA and NY dragging its feet with the elderly.

On the other side of the ledger though you have a system which is entirely built into cases (though the WHO might help with that with the new advice that just came out), kids vaccines no where on the horizon, mass vaccination of the non-elderly held up until we get either the AZ or JJ vaccines approved, a Biden task force heavily focused on prolockdowners, and health advisers that want to be masked up and restricted until 2022 at the earliest. Also, because those children vaccines won't be here any time soon, and because the "experimental" label won't be removed from the vaccine any time soon, the COVID cases aren't disappearing any time soon (they'll floor over the summer and then we'll experience outbreaks in the fall/winter again).

The actual emergency will be all but over in the next 2-3 months. From there on out everything is just plain political.
Yes. States like FL and TX will be back to near normal in no time, but CA? I think it will be a while.
 
Yes. States like FL and TX will be back to near normal in no time, but CA? I think it will be a while.
This is largely due to politics, though....not the vaccine. Florida is pretty much back to semi-normal anyway...the step to near normal is short for them....California has a long way to go before we even get to semi-normal, and from the look of the city these days it might be years before we achieve pre-pandemic normality, if ever. I also point out that all this self-flagellation has gotten us pretty much bubkis....despite mask mandates, curfews, lockdowns, no outdoor dining, and kids out of school, we still for a period of time have had a worst-in-the-country outbreak.
 
This is largely due to politics, though....not the vaccine. Florida is pretty much back to semi-normal anyway...the step to near normal is short for them....California has a long way to go before we even get to semi-normal, and from the look of the city these days it might be years before we achieve pre-pandemic normality, if ever. I also point out that all this self-flagellation has gotten us pretty much bubkis....despite mask mandates, curfews, lockdowns, no outdoor dining, and kids out of school, we still for a period of time have had a worst-in-the-country outbreak.
Further to this, the attached article is way over the top but it hit on a core truth. And if we did this for COVID, what's going to happen the next time we get a new bad flu strain. The emergency will be over in a couple months...100 days max. The question then is do we reject the ideology of destruction, or do we let it rule our lives forever more. That's political.

 

socalkdg

PREMIER
I'm thinking we can reopen everything by May, with cases dropping dramatically by end of March. US has administered 18.4 million doses. Biden plans on another 100 million in the next 100 days. Kids under 16 don't get the shot, that is another 70 million. Another 25 million already had covid(this number is probably much greater). 1/4 the population will choose not to get the shot. 80 million. Add it all up and we have close to 300 million by end of April.

Since this is good news, my dad and stepmom had their first shots last week, my mom gets hers this Saturday. In-laws shortly. They are all in the 75+ category.
 
I'm thinking we can reopen everything by May, with cases dropping dramatically by end of March. US has administered 18.4 million doses. Biden plans on another 100 million in the next 100 days. Kids under 16 don't get the shot, that is another 70 million. Another 25 million already had covid(this number is probably much greater). 1/4 the population will choose not to get the shot. 80 million. Add it all up and we have close to 300 million by end of April.

Since this is good news, my dad and stepmom had their first shots last week, my mom gets hers this Saturday. In-laws shortly. They are all in the 75+ category.
Great news for your folks! My folks got theirs last week too (MDs).

Here's some other real good news. Am hearing from my pharma friend they expect the J&J EU authorization in the next 2-3 weeks.

I agree both cases and deaths will drop dramatically by March (in part because of seasonality and in part because of the vaccine and as dad points out in part because so many people have had it). Your math though isn't 100% correct. The kids under 16 and the 1/4 who have chosen not to get the shot don't really count since they will be still spreading COVID among themselves. The people who have already had it also may or may not count (because they are vaccinating them anyway, which is dumb, there's some overlap with the vaccinated...some of them also fall in the kid category). Then there's the issue of length of immunity/mutations...my son had it back in March....does he count?....we don't have a firm idea yet. Finally, it takes 2 shots to make that fully effective and those need to be spread more than a month so we aren't reaching (even with the J&J vaccine which is easier to admin) max voluntary immunity among those authorized until May (though someone correct me if I'm wrong but I think J&J is 1 dose)

But ultimately for California the issue is going to be that we are still going to have cases over March. Not a ton of them like we do now but enough that it will disrupt life. If you get a COVID positive kid, your school and your sports teams are still going to be shut down. If you get one at work, they'll still make everyone test (including stupidly those that have had the 2nd dose of the vaccine). They'll still be the horror stories of the 40 year old struck down in the prime of life. The teachers unions are setting it up that schools can't be fully reopened until the kids are vaccinated (which for under 12 isn't looking until 2022 and which won't be mandated until the EU label is removed). California will still force you to wear a mask. Disneyland will still be closed (prob summer) and mass sporting event with spectators not allowed. No tournaments or away camps this summer.
The case levels are sensitive enough that it's really really very hard to get to orange and yellow zones and remember there's still no green. In some low pop counties a handful of cases are enough to kick you into the orange.

"Open" everything is therefore a political question. It won't happen as long as Newsom and his team doesn't change his thinking and the standards are still geared to cases. If you live in Texas and Florida, yes absolutely.
 
Good news everyone. OC is now down to 500 new cases. The WHO just admitted their testing grossly overstates individuals for testing positive for the Rona and grossly overstates mortality rate. Oh my and oh dear all in one :) I read the news this morning and it looks like places in NY, Chicago are going to open for business. I'm sure by March 4th all will be well. Let's just go back to "the way we were." Maybe we should just pick up where we left off 3/11/20 and just pretend nothing just happen right in front of our eyes and ears? Nothing really happen and this was just one insane long acid trip or some like to say, "A journey of a lifetime." I've learned so much about myself and want I really want on this planet.

 
The J&J vaccine is a game-changer. One dose AND it can be stored in refrigerators. I feel like we should use this vaccine as a completely separate "prong" in the attack. Take it to the high infection rate communities that are also invariably underserved as far as getting the vaccine. Set up in the community center and vaccinate anyone willing to come in. Don't make them sign up online. Bring ID for tracking and get the shots in the arms ASAP. Looks like it will be another 2 months, though.

 

socalkdg

PREMIER
If you get one at work, they'll still make everyone test (including stupidly those that have had the 2nd dose of the vaccine).
OSHA requires 3 positives in the same work area in a two week period to make the whole company tst.. We have had about 20 positive over the last 9 months. We quarantine anyone that was close to the person that got sick.

Looks like our Governor is on our side again.

 
One shot - normal refrigeration. Get this into the areas where the virus is spreading fastest, ASAP. Do walk-ups/drives-ups by age with ID so we can get to those that aren't internet savvy.

 
One shot - normal refrigeration. Get this into the areas where the virus is spreading fastest, ASAP. Do walk-ups/drives-ups by age with ID so we can get to those that aren't internet savvy.

One shot - normal refrigeration. Get this into the areas where the virus is spreading fastest, ASAP. Do walk-ups/drives-ups by age with ID so we can get to those that aren't internet savvy.

I would totally take the j&j vaccine now but would want to continue to wait at least a year to take the mRNA vaccine and would not for years give the mRNA vaccine to the kids. I probably would want my folks though given their age to get the mRNA vaccines (they’ve had first dose moderna)

im already seeing the chicken little crowd on Twitter saying 60%+ is not enough for such a risky virus with unknown long term side effects and all these scary variants. My panicky in laws say no way Jose. The wife of my sons godfather, an lausd teacher, says the jj vaccine not good enough for teachers since they’ll bring it home from the classroom

if we weren’t in such a complete insane irrational panic, the jj vaccine should be prioritized for essential workers in hard hit community and the mRNA vaccines for the elderly and those with severe conditions (downs or uncontrolled diabetes not asthma or being overweight). It’s most likely by the end of this at least 1/2 of us are going to get it....if the thing mutates away from full protection most likely way more...you can’t avoid it forever so whip away the jj shot. Doing this would make things easier to mass vaccinate too since single dose less refrig. But they’ll just say we are fing essential workers for the rich white elderly
 
Colorado offers an interesting "middle" between CA and TX/FL/AZ. My interpretation of the restrictions is: CA > CO > AZ > TX > FL. But it feels like the "distance" between AZ and FL is much less than the distance between CA and CO. I found the story below regarding how CO plans to move forward. In CO, they are talking about the virus exist strategy and are even willing to talk about living normally as early as May-June if you are vaccinated. I just don't see this conversation getting off the ground in CA.

Polis said, adding he hopes the state can achieve a 60-70% vaccination rate by May, June or July. At that point, he said, “it certainly means that for those who’ve been vaccinated … they can generally live the same way they’ve lived in years past.”

Then there are the risk assessment considerations below. Again, I don't see this type of decision making happening in CA. In CA all "risk assessment" is tied to the number of infections. Philosophically, it is a very different approach.

“The question of whether it’s the right time — well, that’s how much risk we want to take,” said Jon Samet, dean at The Colorado School of Public Health and a state adviser on pandemic modeling. “With the pandemic going down in the state, and vaccinations going up, it’s not the wrong time. I’ll put it that way.”

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COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS

State takes first step in virus exit strategy

Restaurants, bars, gyms, offices will move to 50% capacity as Colorado loosens curbs

By Alex Burness

The Denver Post

Most Colorado counties will see more people allowed in restaurants, bars, gyms, offices and event spaces starting at 9 a.m. Saturday.

It’s the first step in the state’s broader COVID-19 exit strategy, one in which Gov. Jared Polis envisions Coloradans returning to nightclubs and sports stadiums as soon as May. He and public health officials hope that by the fall, people will be able to gather indoors with large groups in much the way they did before the pandemic.

Polis announced new details Friday afternoon about the state’s plans to loosen restrictions gradually, and promised more to come. His move comes as the virus is still spreading widely, with about four times as many cases as Colorado saw during the summer.

Every county in every corner of the state still will have to follow Colorado’s colorcoded restriction dial, but the new version — “Dial 2.0” — significantly lowers the threshold of COVID-19 cases that must be met to restore personal freedoms and full business activities.

The softening begins at 9 a.m. Saturday, when the most populous counties — including Denver, Larimer, El Paso, Adams, Douglas, Jefferson, Boulder and Arapahoe — move to Level Yellow, down from Orange,

which opens up capacity to 50% or 100 people indoors. And 22 of the state’s 64 counties will have even fewer restrictions under Level Blue (175 people indoors).

The new dial, Polis told The Post, will be more nimble “to allow for more normalcy” — or less, if case rates move in the wrong direction.

“Every day I wake up asking myself, ‘Can we get rid of the dial?’ I think the answer is still overwhelmingly no,” Polis said, adding he hopes the state can achieve a 60-70% vaccination rate by May, June or July. At that point, he said, “it certainly means that for those who’ve been vaccinated … they can generally live the same way they’ve lived in years past.”

If all goes well, there will be another, more-lenient update to the dial in the next couple months. But that’s a big “if,” given that fewer than 2% of all Coloradans have received both vaccine doses and there are new virus variants making the rounds.

Colorado is somewhat containing the virus — as of this week it had the eighthfewest new virus cases among states, adjusted for population — resulting in lower hospitalizations and deaths. But the statewide case count on average is approximately twice as high as when Polis issued a statewide stay-at-home order in the spring (partly a reflection of increased testing capacity).

Plus there’s concern, particularly for and among low-income people and people of color, that Polis is moving too quickly toward a greater normalcy.

“The question of whether it’s the right time — well, that’s how much risk we want to take,” said Jon Samet, dean at The Colorado School of Public Health and a state adviser on pandemic modeling. “With the pandemic going down in the state, and vaccinations going up, it’s not the wrong time. I’ll put it that way.”
 
I feel like this is good news (taken from NY Times), although I am not sure about how children are included/excluded given we don't have a vaccine that is approved for children. With any luck, the J&J will work for them and we can get that out soon. I think we saturate adults interested in having the vaccine before July, with the bit of accelerration we are seeing and the J&J vaccine coming out in a couple of weeks.

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I feel like this is good news (taken from NY Times), although I am not sure about how children are included/excluded given we don't have a vaccine that is approved for children. With any luck, the J&J will work for them and we can get that out soon. I think we saturate adults interested in having the vaccine before July, with the bit of accelerration we are seeing and the J&J vaccine coming out in a couple of weeks.

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The problem with the j&j vaccine is the much lower efficiency. Some people won’t want to take it because of that particularly once the scare of the South Africa variant hits the mainstream. Biden admin just bought a new round of mRNA vaccine so they seem to be leaning more heavily towards that which means a slower roll out due to handling requirements unlike the j&j which could be rolled out to every cvs across the country
 
The problem with the j&j vaccine is the much lower efficiency. Some people won’t want to take it because of that particularly once the scare of the South Africa variant hits the mainstream. Biden admin just bought a new round of mRNA vaccine so they seem to be leaning more heavily towards that which means a slower roll out due to handling requirements unlike the j&j which could be rolled out to every cvs across the country
Why not have a completely separate effort with younger "spreaders" with the J&J vaccine, then - assuming we have enough resources to do so without slowing down the mRNA vaccination effort. Any slowing of the spread reduces the chances of mutations, correct?
 
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