Good News Thread

“We’re rounding the curve! Many people say we did a great job millions would have died if we had done absolutely nothing!” Thousands would have survived if we had just taken it half-way seriously.
I'm just saying we ran out of people to infect. Don't mistake my nonsense for optimism.
 
I've been looking at positivity to guess the relationship between confirmed and actual cases.

LA had a low multiplier for a while, but most of the cases have happened recently, when the multiplier was high.

In areas with low overall cases, turkey day seems to cause large a one time bump in cases, after which the growth goes back to what it was/would have been.

For socal, I think this will push you into decline, assuming no policy or compliance changes.
One sm friend I get info from covid and other things (the bad cat) thinks SoCal in general tops out by New Years. He’s been extremely right about everything including the southern summer wave. The bad news is he thinks the west coast wave (driven by NorCal Oregon and Seattle) is just really getting started and won’t be going into decline any time soon. He also thinks notwithstanding vaccine deployment the SoCal slump will be very slow. If true bad news for SoCal...very bad news for NorCal. It’s only one persons guess but he has been accurate to date.
 
This is the best this graph has looked in some time.

View attachment 9766
This is the best this graph has looked in some time.

View attachment 9766
Kansas and Tennessee have been especially hard hit in recent weeks. Looks like they are both improving. California still not looking so good (my friend may be right....few week to go before peak especially norcal). Looks like it's Oklahoma's turn from Kansas, West Virginia from Tennessee. New Hampshire and Maine (which had been spared a lot to date) getting hit. What's up with Hawaii? And how's Washington managed to escape things for so long?
 

socalkdg

PREMIER
Have to believe this will be the last spike. With vaccine available plus the shear numbers of people that have already got it, figure it starts to go down by 3rd week in Jan. Hoping.
 
Since we’ve been in this revised/updated STAY AT home order for about 3 weeks now, why are cases still flying high? I mean, no outdoor sports, no outdoor dining, kids haven’t been in school....we are 4 weeks past ThanksGiving........why is LA still skyrocketing?

Better yet, why didn’t Newsome do anything to push to prepare excess capacity for Hospitals and ICU’s (including staffing)? I mean, they’ve been talking about a Holiday spike since
July. They were able to build out make shift triage’s at almost every hospital in CA back in March and did it in record time, why not plan ahead when you know it’s coming?
 
1 million people in the US vaccinated so far:


100 million more orders of the Pfizer vaccine:


Enough supply for everyone to get it by June. Assume Moderna availability, and Oxford approval and availability, and we really could see a late March/early-April timeframe.
 
Have to believe this will be the last spike. With vaccine available plus the shear numbers of people that have already got it, figure it starts to go down by 3rd week in Jan. Hoping.
Agree. At the very least, the next "spike" will be a small one in terms of cases and even smaller in terms of deaths assuming the vaccines are effective in the older age groups. There's no reason to believe otherwise at this point.

Cases are showing signs of a peak. Unfortunately, three big states - CA, TX and FL are still trending up. That's a lot to overcome nationally. It's looking like a plateau now until those states level off a bit. I'm guessing we start heading down by the end of the first week in January - maybe earlier unless we get some sort of bump at Christmas.
 
Agree. At the very least, the next "spike" will be a small one in terms of cases and even smaller in terms of deaths assuming the vaccines are effective in the older age groups. There's no reason to believe otherwise at this point.

Cases are showing signs of a peak. Unfortunately, three big states - CA, TX and FL are still trending up. That's a lot to overcome nationally. It's looking like a plateau now until those states level off a bit. I'm guessing we start heading down by the end of the first week in January - maybe earlier unless we get some sort of bump at Christmas.
The Christmas/New Years surge will come in a couple weeks. It will get much worse before it gets any better.
 
The Christmas/New Years surge will come in a couple weeks. It will get much worse before it gets any better.
Much worse? Maybe. Airports had the heaviest travel day of the year yesterday. Based on the graphs of the states, there is little indication that states got much worse after Thanksgiving. In many states, there was a bump up, but the trend after Thanksgiving was pretty consistent with the trend prior to Thanksgiving.
 
Ok, my "Good News" is really just a different perspective that we don't typically see in the news. It's also something @Desert Hound posted a while back. While the vaccine rollout is going slower than desired, the effect on the rate of death will happen quickly where states focus on vaccinating the older population. This "surge" already appears to be well past the apex for infections and even for deaths/day. Add that to a significant proportion of the older population already getting vaccines and we are headed in the right direction quickly.

1611248492294.png
 
Ok, my "Good News" is really just a different perspective that we don't typically see in the news. It's also something @Desert Hound posted a while back. While the vaccine rollout is going slower than desired, the effect on the rate of death will happen quickly where states focus on vaccinating the older population. This "surge" already appears to be well past the apex for infections and even for deaths/day. Add that to a significant proportion of the older population already getting vaccines and we are headed in the right direction quickly.

View attachment 9984
Think you are right. The IFR is going to drop to the equivalent of a bad flu season within a couple months even with some states like CA and NY dragging its feet with the elderly.

On the other side of the ledger though you have a system which is entirely built into cases (though the WHO might help with that with the new advice that just came out), kids vaccines no where on the horizon, mass vaccination of the non-elderly held up until we get either the AZ or JJ vaccines approved, a Biden task force heavily focused on prolockdowners, and health advisers that want to be masked up and restricted until 2022 at the earliest. Also, because those children vaccines won't be here any time soon, and because the "experimental" label won't be removed from the vaccine any time soon, the COVID cases aren't disappearing any time soon (they'll floor over the summer and then we'll experience outbreaks in the fall/winter again).

The actual emergency will be all but over in the next 2-3 months. From there on out everything is just plain political.
 
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