Good News Thread

This is huge news. The CDC has announced they are starting with nursing home patients FIRST, not health care workers. If it holds, it means a few things: a) the data must show and they are sufficiently convinced that the vaccine does have eficacy in older people, b) since the vaccine, though, doesn't prevent 100% getting COVID, but does lessen symptoms, they are doubling down on the "emergency/masks forever" strategy....seeking to lessen the crisis but not necessarily make it end quickly, c) it delays the mandatory vaccine debate for a bit (possibly not until the next administration), and d) no mention of teachers....remote school for the entire year increasingly likely, though I'm not ready to call that one yet....I still think teachers should come before any non-aged health care workers if that's what it takes to reopen the schools.

 
This is huge news. The CDC has announced they are starting with nursing home patients FIRST, not health care workers. If it holds, it means a few things: a) the data must show and they are sufficiently convinced that the vaccine does have eficacy in older people, b) since the vaccine, though, doesn't prevent 100% getting COVID, but does lessen symptoms, they are doubling down on the "emergency/masks forever" strategy....seeking to lessen the crisis but not necessarily make it end quickly, c) it delays the mandatory vaccine debate for a bit (possibly not until the next administration), and d) no mention of teachers....remote school for the entire year increasingly likely, though I'm not ready to call that one yet....I still think teachers should come before any non-aged health care workers if that's what it takes to reopen the schools.

In some ways, nursing homes are “low hanging fruit” assuming the vaccine is reasonably effective for seniors. You have a bunch of high risk folks, all in one spot, and many incapable of saying “No, thanks.” Sounds like they will vaccinate the workers at the homes simultaneously. Hard to argue with this approach if the vaccine offers them protection - especially given the high level of resistance many have to getting the vaccine.
 
In some ways, nursing homes are “low hanging fruit” assuming the vaccine is reasonably effective for seniors. You have a bunch of high risk folks, all in one spot, and many incapable of saying “No, thanks.” Sounds like they will vaccinate the workers at the homes simultaneously. Hard to argue with this approach if the vaccine offers them protection - especially given the high level of resistance many have to getting the vaccine.
If it's true and the side effects are less for older people, it's also a way to lessen the "vaccine bad" stories. But these aren't people that are out and around in the community and if they can still get COVID even with the vaccine it won't lessen the case count substantially at first (whereas vaccinating college kids and health care workers would). But I do agree with your analysis of the incentives involved.
 
If it's true and the side effects are less for older people, it's also a way to lessen the "vaccine bad" stories. But these aren't people that are out and around in the community and if they can still get COVID even with the vaccine it won't lessen the case count substantially at first (whereas vaccinating college kids and health care workers would). But I do agree with your analysis of the incentives involved.
I was really hoping we could vaccinate the college kids before they went home for the holidays. However, even if the vaccine was ready, the two doses and the potential of unpleasant side effects might make the end of the semester exams more challenging. There are ways around it such as, get a vaccine and your grade stats the same as before your final.

I have to wonder if college kids won’t fall far down the priority list due to optics. College students tend to fall more into the wealthier side of our society. Why favor them over the 19 year old not going to college? I only hope there is the general mindset in the public that this is even a real possibility - people are upset because they didn’t get access to the vaccine sooner. I fear the issue is that many want nothing to do with the vaccine. Every survey I have seen indicates that appears more prevalent in the economically disadvantaged side of society.
 
This is huge news. The CDC has announced they are starting with nursing home patients FIRST, not health care workers. If it holds, it means a few things: a) the data must show and they are sufficiently convinced that the vaccine does have eficacy in older people, b) since the vaccine, though, doesn't prevent 100% getting COVID, but does lessen symptoms, they are doubling down on the "emergency/masks forever" strategy....seeking to lessen the crisis but not necessarily make it end quickly, c) it delays the mandatory vaccine debate for a bit (possibly not until the next administration), and d) no mention of teachers....remote school for the entire year increasingly likely, though I'm not ready to call that one yet....I still think teachers should come before any non-aged health care workers if that's what it takes to reopen the schools.

interesting contradictory info being released in Tennessee today. They say health care workers are first so someone’s not communicating very well with each other

also Tennessee’s governor said no vaccine requirement for schools. Sets up a battle with the Biden admin.
 
interesting contradictory info being released in Tennessee today. They say health care workers are first so someone’s not communicating very well with each other

also Tennessee’s governor said no vaccine requirement for schools. Sets up a battle with the Biden admin.
It will be very interesting how this all plays out with the vaccine.
 
It will be very interesting how this all plays out with the vaccine.
There will be those who strictly use it for political purposes like they have since the beginning. The power of American ingenuity and the ability to pull together has been discarded in favor of political divide. Sad, so many have died, so many have been devastated financially, school children have been deprived, athletics, etc. all quite needlessly.
 

Desert Hound

PREMIER
Rt is less than 1.0 in several states that have been getting hammered with cased the past few weeks. That's definitely good news. Those same states also appear to be peaking with cases in for a few, have started down a bit (check out the NY Times for those graphs - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/north-dakota-coronavirus-cases.html#cases)

View attachment 9538
Here is the direct link.

If you watch it over a month or so you see states constantly move up and down the scale.

 
US Supreme court 5-4 strikes down Cuomo size restrictions on worship. I'd expect the precedent will also serve to strike down restrictions in California. Likely also adds fuel to the fire for the parochial schools challenges in California to county restrictions.
 
US Supreme court 5-4 strikes down Cuomo size restrictions on worship. I'd expect the precedent will also serve to strike down restrictions in California. Likely also adds fuel to the fire for the parochial schools challenges in California to county restrictions.
Roberts dissented basically saying because the restrictions lifted the matter is moot and the Supreme Court should not act. Gorsuch tears into him for that saying to get to the Supreme Court and have the principle adjudicated, the house of worship would have to have the restriction placed on them and remain in the applicable tier until the Supreme Court heard their case, even though they were under threat of a potential future closure. Gorsuch basically alleges Roberts is a situationalist, using the technically to avoid overturning an executive action, even though in principle Roberts signals he agrees with the majority.

The thrust of the majority opinions is that the reason the restriction is not acceptable is because it isn't content neutral. Cuomo limited houses of worship to 10 people but didn't limit tattoo parlors, alcohol dealers, grocers, and law offices, deeming those essential. So the state could restrict all indoor singing or require masks in all indoor public places, but cannot single out houses of worship for special treatment. Similarly, the state can't restrict outdoor services or put restrictions on those, if it doesn't do so on things like protests or political celebrations.

The Gorsuch opinion in particularly sizzles. He's clearly fed up with the Chief's politicking around sensitive issues.
 
What's really interesting about the Gorsuch opinion too is he's discusing the Jacobson small pox case which the Chief used as his rationale for allowing the restrictions early in the pandemic. On the face of it, Gorsuch is rebutting the chief's rationale. But the long game is he's laying out the parameters on which a vaccine mandate may or may not survive Supreme Court review.
 
What's really interesting about the Gorsuch opinion too is he's discusing the Jacobson small pox case which the Chief used as his rationale for allowing the restrictions early in the pandemic. On the face of it, Gorsuch is rebutting the chief's rationale. But the long game is he's laying out the parameters on which a vaccine mandate may or may not survive Supreme Court review.
What is your impression on whether a vaccine mandate would be upheld by the Supreme Court?
 
What is your impression on whether a vaccine mandate would be upheld by the Supreme Court?
depends on how it’s structured. Gorsuch is signaling they’ll need a wide religious exemption to pass. Likely at least acb Thomas and Alito agree. He’s also signaling he’d might have an issue in general but unclear whose with him on that

there Will be 3 vaccine fights, from most dangerous to least. One is Biden v red states like Tennessee that have come out and said no mandate. Two is states v individuals like when they try and force the teachers to get vaccinated (which will happen and might make for some interesting blue on blue conflict). Three is when employers try to force it on workers and airlines on employees.
 
What's really interesting about the Gorsuch opinion too is he's discusing the Jacobson small pox case which the Chief used as his rationale for allowing the restrictions early in the pandemic. On the face of it, Gorsuch is rebutting the chief's rationale. But the long game is he's laying out the parameters on which a vaccine mandate may or may not survive Supreme Court review.
ACB saved the day for those who want to worship in peace Grace? She's the real deal :) Happy Thanksgiving Grace. I'm so thankful for all the strong woman in my life. We have some really incredible brave woman in this country and I'm so grateful to my wife and dd as well. My adopted mommy and my biological mommy are true heroes to me and always will be. I would not be here without them and today i am must grateful. My adopted mom loved Thanksgiving and always told us it was her favorite holiday. She died on this day in 2010 and would be 100 today. Thanks for adopting me :)
 
@Grace T. Do you have a favorite Palm you want share with all of us today? I love me some Palmist on Thanksgiving Day. I'm reading one of my Palms today before our family dinner. We will all stay as a single family unit today and then do a virtual "We miss you grandma and grandpa." Tomorrow is another day and we will celebrate the day after, Thanks :)
 
This is why I'm optimistic for a much more "normal" life by spring, 2021 due to a significant decrease in "deaths from COVID".

1) Immunity to COVID appears persistent and a lot of people already had (20%?) and many more will catch it in the next few months.
2) With a virus such as COVID where much of the transmission is driven by "super spreading" events, those that get it early tend to have a higher "individual R0" and that drives down R0 for the remaining population --> The virus doesn't spread as easily not only due to fewer people being susceptible, those that are susceptible don't spread it as easily as those who caught it already.
3) The priority is to roll out the vaccine to the older folks first. This makes sense to me as the vaccine is stated to be effective for the older generation and those groups are driving the high death rate. <check my math with the link below>
Age group proportion of COVID deaths:
-- 75+, it's 58%
-- 65+, it's 79%
-- 55+, it's 91%
4) Treatments will continue to get better.
5) Seasonality


Case counts will look grim for a while, but there are already good signs in the heartland as some of the states appeared to have peaked.
 
This is why I'm optimistic for a much more "normal" life by spring, 2021 due to a significant decrease in "deaths from COVID".

1) Immunity to COVID appears persistent and a lot of people already had (20%?) and many more will catch it in the next few months.
2) With a virus such as COVID where much of the transmission is driven by "super spreading" events, those that get it early tend to have a higher "individual R0" and that drives down R0 for the remaining population --> The virus doesn't spread as easily not only due to fewer people being susceptible, those that are susceptible don't spread it as easily as those who caught it already.
3) The priority is to roll out the vaccine to the older folks first. This makes sense to me as the vaccine is stated to be effective for the older generation and those groups are driving the high death rate. <check my math with the link below>
Age group proportion of COVID deaths:
-- 75+, it's 58%
-- 65+, it's 79%
-- 55+, it's 91%
4) Treatments will continue to get better.
5) Seasonality


Case counts will look grim for a while, but there are already good signs in the heartland as some of the states appeared to have peaked.
I drove by the ER yesterday for a peak and it was a ghost twon. All these "rise" in cases has everything to do with folks trying to leave the state and want to make sure their not infected with the bat virus. Grace is spot on. Anyway, Happy Thanksgiving and great job on all the research.
 
TSA on Wednesday screened the highest number of travelers in one day since the pandemic began

Be safe my fellow Americans and visitors to our awesome country
 
This is why I'm optimistic for a much more "normal" life by spring, 2021 due to a significant decrease in "deaths from COVID".

1) Immunity to COVID appears persistent and a lot of people already had (20%?) and many more will catch it in the next few months.
2) With a virus such as COVID where much of the transmission is driven by "super spreading" events, those that get it early tend to have a higher "individual R0" and that drives down R0 for the remaining population --> The virus doesn't spread as easily not only due to fewer people being susceptible, those that are susceptible don't spread it as easily as those who caught it already.
3) The priority is to roll out the vaccine to the older folks first. This makes sense to me as the vaccine is stated to be effective for the older generation and those groups are driving the high death rate. <check my math with the link below>
Age group proportion of COVID deaths:
-- 75+, it's 58%
-- 65+, it's 79%
-- 55+, it's 91%
4) Treatments will continue to get better.
5) Seasonality


Case counts will look grim for a while, but there are already good signs in the heartland as some of the states appeared to have peaked.
it depends if falling death rates allows us realists to get the upper hand in the discussions. Remember case numbers are all important to some experts like Fauci, the California health authorities or our genius in Los Angeles. The Biden covid panel leans this way too. The scenario that’s being set up is due to vaccine and treatments death rate falls but there are still stories of 30 somethings landing in the hospital and a 40 something dying here and there. Will we be able to climb down from the hysteria weve built up, in the background of an election controversy that’s not going away, a vaccine fight, and a red/blue federalist control controversy? I don’t know. If Trump had won I’d have said sure you are right. The problem is we don’t know how much a true believer Biden (or more appropriately Dr Jill Biden) is in all this and how much of it was just a political tool to beat Trump on the head with. The fact Biden is a pragmatist gives me optimism. His panel pick makes me skeptical.
 
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