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[Keepermom2]

Here's an La County fun fact. La County just completed a census of available hospital beds. It's census showed fewer hospital beds in use than the equivalent time in 2019. Part of that is hospitals expanded beds in anticipation of COVID. Another is that people are deferring some procedures out of fear of catching COVID (one of my nurse friends just got laid off of her lypo job for example). But under that metric, your own figures aren't useful

You are assuming exponential growth that goes on forever. Even Sweden didn't show that. And LA isn't Sweden...many businesses are still shut, there's a mask requirement, kids aren't playing soccer (at least not legally). All the models that predicted the worst were completely wrong....and SoCal and NorCal have had similar patterns and similar shutdown with the same governor, yet there are different results. What's to account for that? Well the waves are rigid...they are mathematically....you just have to go through a certain amount and there's very very little anyone can do about it.

Notice the top 5 counties for hospitalizations are all Southern Cal. Also note, no flows going on and only up up up after the impact from opening so fast started.

 

[Keepermom2]

What you've basically said is that nothing we can do will lower the R factor at this point. We agree on something at least.

The reason why is because restaurants aren't the primary driver of this thing right now. It's the illicit gatherings taking place (bars are also a factor...I would have shut the bars too if I were the governor, as well as indoor gyms, but I would have let distanced soccer go on for now). The reason you can't put the genii back in the bottle is because of the protests....the protests basically convinced a lot of young people they should just go out and have at it. Nothing the governor can do at this point is going to put that genii back in the bottle, so he's left with got to do something let's do stupid things like keep schools partially closed or ban youth sports. Short of enacting a police state where the police raid and shut down any gatherings of people greater than 2, there's not a whole lot that can be done. If you don't allow club soccer, it's just going to go underground.

The other major driver is the southern border. The zip codes along the Mexican border have had a substantial amount of cases more than those outside of it. Considering the D hostility towards shutting the border, and at this point that the people crossing the border are largely US citizens or people with work permission, there's not much to be done there either.

No I didn't say that. I said we have to do something to lower the R factor. The problem is, we do not contact trace so we have no idea what is contributing to the significant increases so we could isolate those activities. It could be protests, it could be bars open, it could be people not wearing masks, it could be social gatherings, it could be socializing at home etc. We have no data showing what is causing it and they are shooting in the dark so to speak and waiting to see if there is a change. Youth sports is easy for them to say no to with no logical reasoning. I think it is that simple.

There is no evidence patients from Imperial County have been transported to OC.

I don't believe the answer is open everything up and do nothing until we are at 90% capacity like Arizona and Texas such that they will have to shut down soon. I would rather have piece meal shut downs than complete shut down again. That is better for the economy.

 

[watfly]

COVID has already shown to not operate in flows because it isn't like the flu where it dies off in the summer. I think Texas and Arizona has already proved that along with Mexico. 3 weeks at 30% or above weekly increase is an indicator that if there is no change in the R factor, than we will have a problem. I said that if we continued at the rate we were, you would see various levels of shut down be put back in place. The only way at this point to lower the R factor, is to put various levels of shut down in place.

SoCal and NorCal does not have similar patterns at all!!! Look at the graphs on the State website. Nor Cal just opened up hair salons last week and dining opened later than us as well.

This doesn't look like "slow burn" in LA. They are at 2004 confirmed hospitalizations and 666 suspected right now.
View attachment 8065

That's funny because the graph is already off by around 500 beds as of today based on their estimate of most likely value (25% error) and is completely out of the red, which is the wide latitude they've given themselves in their prediction (whoever they are?).

 

[Keepermom2]

That's funny because the graph is already off by around 500 beds as of today based on their estimate of most likely value (25% error) and is completely out of the red, which is the wide latitude they've given themselves in their prediction (whoever they are?).

They are at 2,670 today (confirmed and suspected...they include both because the reality is they are in a hospital bed and most turn out to be confirmed). They are right where they predicted they would be. This chart was from LA Health.

 

[Grace T.]

No I didn't say that. I said we have to do something to lower the R factor. The problem is, we do not contact trace so we have no idea what is contributing to the significant increases so we could isolate those activities. It could be protests, it could be bars open, it could be people not wearing masks, it could be social gatherings, it could be socializing at home etc. We have no data showing what is causing it and they are shooting in the dark so to speak and waiting to see if there is a change. Youth sports is easy for them to say no to with no logical reasoning. I think it is that simple.

There is no evidence patients from Imperial County have been transported to OC.

I don't believe the answer is open everything up and do nothing until we are at 90% capacity like Arizona and Texas such that they will have to shut down soon. I would rather have piece meal shut downs than complete shut down again. That is better for the economy.

Well, re the border some people aren't stopping at imperial or San Diego county but coming up to LA. We don't know what percentage it is but it isn't insignificant. The highest confirmed cases over the weekend in San Diego were in the zip codes right along the Mexican border. Look at the numbers out of Yuma Arizona as well. It's not the only factor, but we know by this point it is definitely one of them.

I agree with you that the state should be doing more contact tracing to determine this. But instead we have what contact tracers we do have in the US being given stupid orders like don't ask people if they've attended protests. It's exactly this which contact tracing is useful for: where are the problem areas. It's not useful for determining apersons contacts and then if someone was riding on a subway putting 1000s of people into qurantine. We actually see eye to eye on this and this is actually how we should be constructing our contact tracing. Instead the left has wanted to immitate South Korea (which is impossible because Americans don't even return their phone call) and the right has said no. It's why California's contact tracing (in a blue state run by almost all blue politicians) is a disaster just as much as Texas'.

 

[Kicker4Life]

Notice the top 5 counties for hospitalizations are all Southern Cal. Also note, no flows going on and only up up up after the impact from opening so fast started.
View attachment 8067

I looked at that char online. When you hover over the LA “bar” next to the counties it breaks it down:

LA County:
Positive Covid Patients - 2,004
Suspected Covid Patients - 666
ICU Positive Covid Patients - 529
ICU Suspected Covid Patients - 103
ICU Available beds - 1,334

Orange CO
Positive Covid Patients - 659
Suspected Covid Patients - 180
ICU Positive Covid Patients - 224
ICU Suspected Covid Patients - 26
ICU Available beds - 406

All counties as a whole:
ICU positive patients grew by 64 over the past 6 days. Which is a slowing/plateau from the prior 6 days (311). I also noted how ICU bed availability is virtually flat from where it was on 5/2 (3922) to where it is on 7/6 (3,925).

I get and appreciate the concerns but these numbers don’t support what I’m hearing in the media.

 

[Keepermom2]

Well, re the border some people aren't stopping at imperial or San Diego county but coming up to LA. We don't know what percentage it is but it isn't insignificant. The highest confirmed cases over the weekend in San Diego were in the zip codes right along the Mexican border. Look at the numbers out of Yuma Arizona as well. It's not the only factor, but we know by this point it is definitely one of them.

I agree with you that the state should be doing more contact tracing to determine this. But instead we have what contact tracers we do have in the US being given stupid orders like don't ask people if they've attended protests. It's exactly this which contact tracing is useful for: where are the problem areas. It's not useful for determining apersons contacts and then if someone was riding on a subway putting 1000s of people into qurantine. We actually see eye to eye on this and this is actually how we should be constructing our contact tracing. Instead the left has wanted to immitate South Korea (which is impossible because Americans don't even return their phone call) and the right has said no. It's why California's contact tracing (in a blue state run by almost all blue politicians) is a disaster just as much as Texas'.

I agree with almost everything you said. I do believe the boarder plays a role but I have seen no evidence that it is "significant" to our numbers or that it plays a role in OC at all. I will say one thing political....Republicans and Democrats alike are to blame for us not being prepared in any way shape or form which we should have been somewhat prepared given the biological weapon threat, and for States not having proper somewhat updated systems of any kind.

 

[Keepermom2]

I looked at that char online. When you hover over the LA “bar” next to the counties it breaks it down:

LA County:
Positive Covid Patients - 2,004
Suspected Covid Patients - 666
ICU Positive Covid Patients - 529
ICU Suspected Covid Patients - 103
ICU Available beds - 1,334

Orange CO
Positive Covid Patients - 659
Suspected Covid Patients - 180
ICU Positive Covid Patients - 224
ICU Suspected Covid Patients - 26
ICU Available beds - 406

All counties as a whole:
ICU positive patients grew by 64 over the past 6 days. Which is a slowing/plateau from the prior 6 days (311). I also noted how ICU bed availability is virtually flat from where it was on 5/2 (3922) to where it is on 7/6 (3,925).

I get and appreciate the concerns but these numbers don’t support what I’m hearing in the media.

The hospitals have been mandated to increase ICU beds over the last week. Why are you using 6 days to calculate a weekly average? Why do you think they closed bars? Why do you think they closed the beaches for the fourth of July weekend? I said a couple of weeks ago as you know, if the weekly increases keep occurring, they will start doing something. What has been said for the State is that we have had 50% increase in hospitalizations over the last 2 weeks. If you listened to Newsom yesterday, he said something about a decrease over the last few days but that information isn't accurate because over the weekend they only have 97% of hospitals reporting so of course the numbers are distorted.

 

[Grace T.]

The hospitals have been mandated to increase ICU beds over the last week. Why are you using 6 days to calculate a weekly average? Why do you think they closed bars? Why do you think they closed the beaches for the fourth of July weekend? I said a couple of weeks ago as you know, if the weekly increases keep occurring, they will start doing something. What has been said for the State is that we have had 50% increase in hospitalizations over the last 2 weeks. If you listened to Newsom yesterday, he said something about a decrease over the last few days but that information isn't accurate because over the weekend they only have 97% of hospitals reporting so of course the numbers are distorted.

Again, hospitalizations isn't a good number. If you are delivering, they run a COVID test. You come back positive, you are in a bed, you are counted as COVID hospitalized even if you aren't showing symptoms. The baby comes down with it, the baby is counted as COVID hospitalized too. My counsin had a kidney stone, was COVID tested, asymptomatic yet is a COVID hospitalized case (we think he got it at a protest or a preprotest party). The number is about as useful as total cases. The ICU numbers are a much better proxy. It's also a better indication of whether the cases are serious or not.

 

[Keepermom2]

The hospitals have been mandated to increase ICU beds over the last week. Why are you using 6 days to calculate a weekly average? Why do you think they closed bars? Why do you think they closed the beaches for the fourth of July weekend? I said a couple of weeks ago as you know, if the weekly increases keep occurring, they will start doing something. What has been said for the State is that we have had 50% increase in hospitalizations over the last 2 weeks. If you listened to Newsom yesterday, he said something about a decrease over the last few days but that information isn't accurate because over the weekend they only have 97% of hospitals reporting so of course the numbers are distorte

I looked at that char online. When you hover over the LA “bar” next to the counties it breaks it down:

LA County:
Positive Covid Patients - 2,004
Suspected Covid Patients - 666
ICU Positive Covid Patients - 529
ICU Suspected Covid Patients - 103
ICU Available beds - 1,334

Orange CO
Positive Covid Patients - 659
Suspected Covid Patients - 180
ICU Positive Covid Patients - 224
ICU Suspected Covid Patients - 26
ICU Available beds - 406

All counties as a whole:
ICU positive patients grew by 64 over the past 6 days. Which is a slowing/plateau from the prior 6 days (311). I also noted how ICU bed availability is virtually flat from where it was on 5/2 (3922) to where it is on 7/6 (3,925).

I get and appreciate the concerns but these numbers don’t support what I’m hearing in the media.

I went back and plugged the numbers in and we would still have a 19% growth in 6 days thus increasing hospitalizations at 19% every 6 days and that extended out the reaching capacity date by 2 weeks so mid September.

 

[Kicker4Life]

The hospitals have been mandated to increase ICU beds over the last week. Why are you using 6 days to calculate a weekly average? Why do you think they closed bars? Why do you think they closed the beaches for the fourth of July weekend? I said a couple of weeks ago as you know, if the weekly increases keep occurring, they will start doing something. What has been said for the State is that we have had 50% increase in hospitalizations over the last 2 weeks. If you listened to Newsom yesterday, he said something about a decrease over the last few days but that information isn't accurate because over the weekend they only have 97% of hospitals reporting so of course the numbers are distorted.

It’s not an average. It is an observation. I’m not debunking your concerns just the media narrative cause the stats don’t match.


Newsome - ask him why his Winery didn’t have to closewhen everyone else did. Ask him why he won’t touch the coveted $110B
What I do see are “dramatic” increases in cases and ICU occupancy 12 to 14 days after the massive protests in LA. But those where will “allowed”????

 

[Keepermom2]

Again, hospitalizations isn't a good number. If you are delivering, they run a COVID test. You come back positive, you are in a bed, you are counted as COVID hospitalized even if you aren't showing symptoms. The baby comes down with it, the baby is counted as COVID hospitalized too. My counsin had a kidney stone, was COVID tested, asymptomatic yet is a COVID hospitalized case (we think he got it at a protest or a preprotest party). The number is about as useful as total cases. The ICU numbers are a much better proxy. It's also a better indication of whether the cases are serious or not.

I have already explained it is about the number of people in a hospital bed. Whether you are tested positive for COVID or not there are a limited number of hospital beds period. So regardless of whether these people are in a hospital bed for COVID or not, they are still in a hospital bed and if all of the people aren't positive for COVID, we still are running an increase in hospitalizations of 30% per week. That is exactly why all of the data analysis experts use hospitalizations and ICU hospitalizations as key indicators.

 

[Grace T.]

I have already explained it is about the number of people in a hospital bed. Whether you are tested positive for COVID or not there are a limited number of hospital beds period. So regardless of whether these people are in a hospital bed for COVID or not, they are still in a hospital bed and if all of the people aren't positive for COVID, we still are running an increase in hospitalizations of 30% per week. That is exactly why all of the data analysis experts use hospitalizations and ICU hospitalizations as key indicators.

My cousin, though, isn't an increased hospitalization. He probably would have had the kidney stone regardless of whether there's an epidemic now or not, and if beds are a measure we are doing better than the same time period in 2019 without an epidemic (because of the lower elective procedures). The only reason you believe it is a problem is because you believe the model showing exponential growth. The models, though, have been repeatedly shown to be wrong and are only guesses not really backed up by data, just the assumption that what's happening now will go on forever. That's where I'm critical of the so-called experts. It could be, but maybe not. Everyone is just guessing. If the other patterns hold, my guess is we are in the middle of it.

 

[Keepermom2]

I have already explained it is about the number of people in a hospital bed. Whether you are tested positive for COVID or not there are a limited number of hospital beds period. So regardless of whether these people are in a hospital bed for COVID or not, they are still in a hospital bed and if all of the people aren't positive for COVID, we still are running an increase in hospitalizations of 30% per week. That is exactly why all of the data analysis experts use hospitalizations and ICU hospitalizations as key indicators.

By the way, OC uses a 3 day average in hospitalizations which I don't use because like I said, weekend numbers aren't complete. I do calculations on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays if they have 100% hospitals reporting.

 

[watfly]

I looked at that char online. When you hover over the LA “bar” next to the counties it breaks it down:

LA County:
Positive Covid Patients - 2,004
Suspected Covid Patients - 666
ICU Positive Covid Patients - 529
ICU Suspected Covid Patients - 103
ICU Available beds - 1,334

Orange CO
Positive Covid Patients - 659
Suspected Covid Patients - 180
ICU Positive Covid Patients - 224
ICU Suspected Covid Patients - 26
ICU Available beds - 406

All counties as a whole:
ICU positive patients grew by 64 over the past 6 days. Which is a slowing/plateau from the prior 6 days (311). I also noted how ICU bed availability is virtually flat from where it was on 5/2 (3922) to where it is on 7/6 (3,925).

I get and appreciate the concerns but these numbers don’t support what I’m hearing in the media.

There is no significant evidence to suggest that SoCal will run out of ICU beds.

A note on the border, my buddy who is the medical director/chief of staff for very large healthcare organization, indicated that the border patients were mostly impacting the Chula Vista and Imperial Valley hospitals. I read an article a week or so ago that mentioned some of those Imperial Valley patients are rolling over to San Diego and Orange County. IDK why they'd come to the OC, but the article mentioned 24 from IV in OC ICU beds (can't find the article so I'm only stating that as an observation).

 

[Keepermom2]

My cousin, though, isn't an increased hospitalization. He probably would have had the kidney stone regardless of whether there's an epidemic now or not, and if beds are a measure we are doing better than the same time period in 2019 without an epidemic (because of the lower elective procedures). The only reason you believe it is a problem is because you believe the model showing exponential growth. The models, though, have been repeatedly shown to be wrong and are only guesses not really backed up by data, just the assumption that what's happening now will go on forever. That's where I'm critical of the so-called experts. It could be, but maybe not. Everyone is just guessing. If the other patterns hold, my guess is we are in the middle of it.

The models that have been wrong were early on when historical data was not available or not complete enough to be useful. Apparently the Counties think it is a problem too considering the fact they started closing places again at the end of last week like I predicted would happen 2 weeks ago if we kept running increases. I also checked on the increases with an in charge nurse at a large hospital in OC. She confirmed what I calculated.

 

[Keepermom2]

There is no significant evidence to suggest that SoCal will run out of ICU beds.

A note on the border, my buddy who is the medical director/chief of staff for very large healthcare organization, indicated that the border patients were mostly impacting the Chula Vista and Imperial Valley hospitals. I read an article a week or so ago that mentioned some of those Imperial Valley patients are rolling over to San Diego and Orange County. IDK why they'd come to the OC, but the article mentioned 24 from IV in OC ICU beds (can't find the article so I'm only stating that as an observation).

Interesting. I read some articles too but there didn't appear to be any evidence of numbers etc. Transparency from our Government would be nice.

 

[Grace T.]

The models that have been wrong were early on when historical data was not available or not complete enough to be useful. Apparently the Counties think it is a problem too considering the fact they started closing places again at the end of last week like I predicted would happen 2 weeks ago if we kept running increases. I also checked on the increases with an in charge nurse at a large hospital in OC. She confirmed what I calculated.

Well we know this because of 1 location: Sweden. Sweden has been much criticized for doing nothing to slow the spread (it's not really true...they did social distance, but didn't have a hard lock down). But in the past couple weeks both cases and deaths have fallen despite a new emphasis on the government on testing. The other major revision was revising their nursing home protocols. It shouldn't have happened under the models, but it did, which has the so-called experts baffled. The other hard hit European countries also aren't at herd immunity but have opened faster than we have (my son's little UK GK pen pal was out of school maybe a month and just wrapped up).

I agreed with you on the reclosing. It's just my opinion they are stupid and won't do very much, because I suspect most of the transmission is taking place at private homes (my neighbors had a kegger 2 weekends ago a big BBQ over the 4th...young 20 somethings).

 

[Keepermom2]

I hope I am wrong and I hope we all of a sudden see a steep decline in hospitalizations. That would be great. My point has always been, the lock downs aren't about preventing anyone from dying...it started because of capacity concerns and various levels of shut down continue because of capacity concerns. I hope the recent mandates changes the picture such that our kids will be allowed to play soccer normally in the fall some time. We won't know that for another 14 to 21 days.

 

[Keepermom2]

Well we know this because of 1 location: Sweden. Sweden has been much criticized for doing nothing to slow the spread (it's not really true...they did social distance, but didn't have a hard lock down). But in the past couple weeks both cases and deaths have fallen despite a new emphasis on the government on testing. The other major revision was revising their nursing home protocols. It shouldn't have happened under the models, but it did, which has the so-called experts baffled. The other hard hit European countries also aren't at herd immunity but have opened faster than we have (my son's little UK GK pen pal was out of school maybe a month and just wrapped up).

I agreed with you on the reclosing. It's just my opinion they are stupid and won't do very much, because I suspect most of the transmission is taking place at private homes (my neighbors had a kegger 2 weekends ago a big BBQ over the 4th...young 20 somethings).

Yeah I saw parties on FB. Ugh