I don't think we'll see a steep decline. The LA pattern will likely show a peak sometime between now and 3 weeks out followed by a very slow decline). That's based just on trig and the curves and what ours looks like in relation to the others, on the assumption it's mathematically rigid, and the decline in social distancing which will slow that process down.
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- Thread starter jpeter
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I don't think we'll see a steep decline. The LA pattern will likely show a peak sometime between now and 3 weeks out followed by a very slow decline). That's based just on trig and the curves and what ours looks like in relation to the others, on the assumption it's mathematically rigid, and the decline in social distancing which will slow that process down.
Keepermom2
GOLD
It is so hard to look at any patterns because the protests and opening up occurred simultaneously. Yeah I do not see any steep decline coming but the slow decline would be nice but doubtful. We shall see.
Keepermom2
GOLD
Oddly enough, this came up today. New York times reported it too but I didn't want to pay to read it. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/sweden-has-become-the-worlds-cautionary-tale/
Keepermom2
GOLD
Sweden's Covid Experiment is Now a Certified Failure
Open Air Failure Sweden captured international attention for its decision to buck the trend on mandated shut-ins. The results are now in as Sweden Has Become
www.thestreet.com
Japan has had fewer infections in 6 months than Florida has had in 2 days.
The “mini wave” in Japan is very, very, small. You’re right that masks are not the only thing we need. But they sure look like a decent sized step in the right direction.
Lionel Hutz
SILVER
Do you have a link to a study or report that shows this -- genuinely would be interested to read up on something that claims what CFR defines an epidemic and where the CFR is currently falling.
Well, a lot of the reporting was before Sweden took a turn for the better. I agree they made a mistake, but the Swedish example hows even if you don't lock down, the initial wave does eventually burn out.
Nonsense.
Nice rebuttal. Added a lot. Cool.
I could have said that your body of work on this topic makes you look like you are an advocate for a certain point of view no matter what the facts are, but I didn't want to insult your integrity.
The CFR is the case fatality rate (that's not the IFR which is how deadly the thing is). The IFR is a fixed number. The CFR declines the less deadly the thing is. It's less deadly because it's hitting younger people and other states haven't replicated the disastrous policy of the northeast of putting nursing home residents and workers that test positive back in nursing homes. It's also declined because we are doing a lot more testing and catching some of those asymptomatic cases.
I'll give you a cite (because I'm lazy and busy and it's the first one I've found), that even while acknowledging what I'm saying (the CFR is falling) makes the opposite case and says things are still bad. It relies on the fact that deaths are a lagging indicator but it doesn't know things will get worse. I suspect they will in the sunbelt, but not significantly, because almost half of all deaths in the north east were from care facilities and we are doing better in patrolling that (at a minimum by not sending COVID positive patients back or allowing workers that test positive to work there). So both "sides" will ultimately claim victory: the antipanic group by saying it wasn't as bad as New York, the panic group by saying you see there was a bump.
A Lower Death Rate Doesn’t Make the U.S. Covid Surge OK
Fatalities still stand to rise, and many survivors will suffer lasting health problems.
www.bloomberg.com
Sheriff Joe
DA
How about the trauma the Trump victory caused you?
Does that count?
Well, isn't Fauci? Trump? Cuomo? Keepermom?
I've been pretty consistent on this. Not the flu but I do think we are overreacting and in an irrational panic. If I were emperor I wouldn't shut down school or youth sports at least for the fall (it's not where the transmission is). Wouldn't have given the protests a free pass, don't like the large scale gatherings going on in private homes either, didn't think an indoor Trump rally was a good idea either. I would have done a mask program early on (said Fauci was full of s--- from the beginning) and would have mobilized resources to produce masks that might actually help (not bandanas and stupid surgical masks). I wouldn't have locked down the South when they did (would have waited several weeks), I would have locked down New York, and though the Constitution doesn't allow it if I were emperor I probably would have shut travel from NY if I were emperor as well as the southern border to even US citizens. I wouldn't have sent sick people back into nursing homes. And no, that would have been without the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.
Beyond that there's not much that governments can do. Some got lucky in their timing and some didn't. This is going to happen, unfortunately, and there's not a whole lot we can do to control it. I know that's uncomfortable in our "we must do something" society but there's really not a whole to be done. Governments, left and right, democratic and authoritarian, have failed around the world at controlling the thing.
None of that impacts my opinion of your performance.
Keepermom2
GOLD
That is not what it shows at all and by the way...this was reported today.
Well, you can't win em all I guess. Your critique is noted. I let my record though speak for itself: knew how this would play out well back in January (and took steps to prepare personally, in business, and at my son's school), nailed the shutdown almost within the week a month out, nailed the stock market crash to the day (as well as the subsequent so-so recovery), the pattern over the summer in Socal, the IFR to less than .1 of a decimal point (when the WHO was saying 3%), the asymptomatic transmission, and both the current patterns in the US and Europe. Was wrong about Australia... at least so far.....
Look at the Swedish charts (both death and reported). It's very clear they are on the down slope of their wave.
Keepermom2
GOLD
I think you are reaching to make yourself right. I think the headline is clear...Certified Failure.
Exactly
Well, I'm in good company then since everyone else has as well. As with espola, though, I'll let me track record speak for itself. Can't really argue with you if you refuse to acknowledge the clear numbers.