Bad News Thread

[dad4]

No...it won’t work on a mass scale because human beings are social creatures. So one introverted weirdo can keep to himself and once weekly takeout (btw your tournament hypocrisy proves this effect...even you couldn’t do it) but if you amplify that across the country not only do you get the 1 tournament failing (whatever it is for that person) but you also get the other imperfections from folks less virtuous and more sociable and less weird than dad. So some advice which may be useful for individuals fails when you scale it because it can’t be maintained...not because folks are naughty and don’t want to...but because neither they nor the economy are built that way


Why am I not surprised you have yet again declined to layout the Hindsight dad plan?

That discussion is dead. No matter what plan I suggest, you will assume no one complies. There is not a covid containment plan which works despite no one following it. Dead argument.

Back to macro/micro: can you explain why you think avoiding high risk areas works micro, but fails macro?

So far, all you can offer is “it would fail because we refuse to do it”. That doesn’t disprove the Roosevelt study or cdc at all. The cdc just says, if we can manage to wear masks and avoid high risk areas, transmission will be lower. That is still true.

Whether we are emotionally and financially capable of doing so is a different question entirely.

 

[Glitterhater]

I am def that introverted weirdo. There are some crazy people in this world!

 

[kickingandscreaming]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389678199391592452

Yep, that J&J pause didn't do us any good at all. I thought we had a president that "stayed out of the way" now.

You aren't paying attention to Fauci. Shame on you. We are only slightly more than halfway over, in the bottom of the 6th inning.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389706051423965186

Hmmm. More bad information from an epidemiologist. This is much more like the end of a basketball game. The last 2 minutes take as long as any other 10 minutes of the game time.

 

[Grace T.]

That discussion is dead. No matter what plan I suggest, you will assume no one complies. There is not a covid containment plan which works despite no one following it. Dead argument.

Back to macro/micro: can you explain why you think avoiding high risk areas works micro, but fails macro?

So far, all you can offer is “it would fail because we refuse to do it”. That doesn’t disprove the Roosevelt study or cdc at all. The cdc just says, if we can manage to wear masks and avoid high risk areas, transmission will be lower. That is still true.

Whether we are emotionally and financially capable of doing so is a different question entirely.

If we aren’t emotionally or financially capable of doing it then why are we arguing about it? Otherwise we are back to you preaching rather than offering prescriptive solutions, which is why you’ve declined to put forward one. It’s easier to preach the virtues of star command than to actually go out there and fight zog or zur or whatever the thing is. It’s easier to cast aspersions on people (when you yourself failed) than to accept that there may not be many good solutions. It’s easier to build your ideal Soviet man than to deal with the messy reality of how people are and to make a cost benefit analysis. The tough cost benefit analysis you keep saying you are willing to make but never get to.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

If we aren’t emotionally or financially capable of doing it then why are we arguing about it? Otherwise we are back to you preaching rather than offering prescriptive solutions, which is why you’ve declined to put forward one. It’s easier to preach the virtues of star command than to actually go out there and fight zog or zur or whatever the thing is. It’s easier to cast aspersions on people (when you yourself failed) than to accept that there may not be many good solutions. It’s easier to build your ideal Soviet man than to deal with the messy reality of how people are and to make a cost benefit analysis. The tough cost benefit analysis you keep saying you are willing to make but never get to.

Is it odd that he so readily accepts the idea of messy data but not the reality of messy people?

 

[dad4]

Is it odd that he so readily accepts the idea of messy data but not the reality of messy people?

Data is often better company.

It more bugs me that so many of us don’t even seem to care enough to try. We can look at the world, understand that covid is a problem, but then completely fall short on even attempting to do our part. All kinds of completely lame rationalizations come out. It’s easier to lie to ourselves than actually change our behavior.

So we talk about how bad Fauci is. Why? Is he actually evil? Is he deliberately trying to mislead us about a matter of national importance? No, but he tells us things we don’t want to hear. So we find a way to disbelieve. After all, if we believed that restaurants were killing people, we’d have to stop going.

So we tell ourselves a story about how masks don’t work and restaurants don’t spread covid. It’s a lie. But, if we believe it, we can do what we want and not feel guilty. So we do.

 

[Grace T.]

Data is often better company.

It more bugs me that so many of us don’t even seem to care enough to try. We can look at the world, understand that covid is a problem, but then completely fall short on even attempting to do our part. All kinds of completely lame rationalizations come out. It’s easier to lie to ourselves than actually change our behavior.

So we talk about how bad Fauci is. Why? Is he actually evil? Is he deliberately trying to mislead us about a matter of national importance? No, but he tells us things we don’t want to hear. So we find a way to disbelieve. After all, if we believed that restaurants were killing people, we’d have to stop going.

So we tell ourselves a story about how masks don’t work and restaurants don’t spread covid. It’s a lie. But, if we believe it, we can do what we want and not feel guilty. So we do.

Care. Evil. Disbelieve. Guilt. Man you’ve gone full preacher and are just oozing the words of religion.

For most of us on team reality it’s not about feelings. It’s about making rational judgments not based in fear but calculating the cost/benefits given the limitations on what we are working with. It’s not that fauci is evil (anymore than trump or Biden are) but that he’s self-obsessed, ineffective or downright wrong in his messaging.

Your first sentence is so sad...even if said in half jest....I say this even as a low extrovert that can appreciate both the is and es. It’s more sad than that scene where Jessie’s owner abandons her. Childhood must have been so difficult for you.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Data is often better company.

Ha! Truth.

It more bugs me that so many of us don’t even seem to care enough to try. We can look at the world, understand that covid is a problem, but then completely fall short on even attempting to do our part. All kinds of completely lame rationalizations come out. It’s easier to lie to ourselves than actually change our behavior.

So we talk about how bad Fauci is. Why? Is he actually evil? Is he deliberately trying to mislead us about a matter of national importance? No, but he tells us things we don’t want to hear. So we find a way to disbelieve. After all, if we believed that restaurants were killing people, we’d have to stop going.

So we tell ourselves a story about how masks don’t work and restaurants don’t spread covid. It’s a lie. But, if we believe it, we can do what we want and not feel guilty. So we do.

It's not a switch where people change their behavior or they don't. Like most things in life, it's a dial. People have changed their behavior quite a bit, actually. Almost everyone did at first - quite dramatically. For many, it's not sustainable for various reasons and viruses punish any deviation from staying away from others. Again, look at how they respond to a single case in Australia.

I don't disbelieve. I stayed out of indoor areas for about a year until I got vaccinated. I think masks are better than not wearing masks when in close proximity to others but overrated in their ability to protect and a poor substitute for staying away from others. Eventually, people assess what they believe their risk is and behave accordingly.

I don't think Fauci is an evil guy. He apparently lied at first about masks, "for our own good'. Then he made some of the same mistakes you accuse others of in terms of "not seem to care enough to try". If anything, his behavior (and Newsome's) supports what Grace and I have been saying about what happens. People are messy. Also, his call on the J&J was probably a pretty bad choice as well, but not evil.

 

[Grace T.]

Pfizer is telling investors people will need to have the shot every 12 months starting with the elderly and people with underlying conditions since immunity seems to wane with time. I dunno...we are struggling to hit 50% on the first shots let alone go back and remember to get a booster.....we aren’t getting to a place where herd immunity makes things go away any time soon.

Anecdotally have been seeing that a lot of the decliners are people who have had covid already. No idea how many of the refusers are but even besties doctor told her to wait 90 days post covid. If they came out with better guidelines and research on the effect of vaccines post covid it might help with this group

Saw an interesting Twitter verse post. Humans are hard wired to believe in something greater than themselves. Some people replaced this with the religion of covid, some with the religion of racism. But now that the covid emergency is almost over, some people are wondering what they’ll fill that void with so they don’t really want it to be over.

 

[Desert Hound]

For many, it's not sustainable for various reasons and viruses punish any deviation from staying away from others. Again, look at how they respond to a single case in Australia.

For most it isn't sustainable.

People have to work. People have to have places open where they can work. Kids need to be in school, Etc. Etc.

You can shut something down for a couple of weeks. You cannot do it for a month or more.

That is the reality.

 

[dad4]

Ha! Truth.


It's not a switch where people change their behavior or they don't. Like most things in life, it's a dial. People have changed their behavior quite a bit, actually. Almost everyone did at first - quite dramatically. For many, it's not sustainable for various reasons and viruses punish any deviation from staying away from others. Again, look at how they respond to a single case in Australia.

I don't disbelieve. I stayed out of indoor areas for about a year until I got vaccinated. I think masks are better than not wearing masks when in close proximity to others but overrated in their ability to protect and a poor substitute for staying away from others. Eventually, people assess what they believe their risk is and behave accordingly.

I don't think Fauci is an evil guy. He apparently lied at first about masks, "for our own good'. Then he made some of the same mistakes you accuse others of in terms of "not seem to care enough to try". If anything, his behavior (and Newsome's) supports what Grace and I have been saying about what happens. People are messy. Also, his call on the J&J was probably a pretty bad choice as well, but not evil.

The J&J call was overcautious, but reasonable.

If the blood clot risk had turned out to be one in 10,000, keeping J&J would have done permanent damage to all of our vaccination efforts, not just covid.

 

[Desert Hound]

Hmmm. More bad information from an epidemiologist. This is much more like the end of a basketball game. The last 2 minutes take as long as any other 10 minutes of the game time.

"Speaking with CNN host Wolf Blitzer on Tuesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci continued pushing against any thoughts that the end of the coronavirus may be near, positing that America is only in "the bottom of the sixth" inning in its battle against the virus.
In baseball terms, the bottom of the sixth represents roughly two-thirds of the length of a typical baseball game, although if the score is tied, extra innings are added until one side wins...

...Fauci, late July 2020: "I don't think we need to go to lockdown again and shelter in place."

Fauci, October 2020: "I'm not going to tell you anything. I don't even know. It would be foolish to predict what is going to be better. The proof is in the pudding."

Fauci, mid-November 2020: "I was talking with my U.K. colleagues who are saying the U.K. is similar to where we are now, because each of our countries have that independent spirit. I can understand that, but now is the time to do what you're told."

---

"Months ago, Fauci et. al. all agreed that children were at little or no risk of getting covid, of transmitting it, least of all dying from it. Now Fauci is demanding that all teens be vaccinated by the end of the year! Why? They are no more danger of contracting it now than they were a year ago. There is no reason on earth for teens, children and infants to be vaccinated. Not one."

 

[Bruddah IZ]

The J&J call was overcautious, but reasonable.

If the blood clot risk had turned out to be one in 10,000, keeping J&J would have done permanent damage to all of our vaccination efforts, not just covid.

Gee thanks Doc.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Pfizer is telling investors people will need to have the shot every 12 months starting with the elderly and people with underlying conditions since immunity seems to wane with time. I dunno...we are struggling to hit 50% on the first shots let alone go back and remember to get a booster.....we aren’t getting to a place where herd immunity makes things go away any time soon.

Anecdotally have been seeing that a lot of the decliners are people who have had covid already. No idea how many of the refusers are but even besties doctor told her to wait 90 days post covid. If they came out with better guidelines and research on the effect of vaccines post covid it might help with this group

Saw an interesting Twitter verse post. Humans are hard wired to believe in something greater than themselves. Some people replaced this with the religion of covid, some with the religion of racism. But now that the covid emergency is almost over, some people are wondering what they’ll fill that void with so they don’t really want it to be over.

I just added to my Pfizer position.

 

[Grace T.]

Whoa......o.k. this is way outside my zone of comfort so don't know how to evaluate the source but it was reputable enough to get listed on both realclearhealth and realclearpolitics. If you read to the end, it circles back to Fauci and his role in the outbreak.

Origin of Covid — Following the Clues

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted lives the world over for more than a year. Its death toll will soon reach three million people. Yet the origin of pandemic remains uncertain: the political agendas…

nicholaswade.medium.com

 

[Bruddah IZ]

You actually got it wrong. Your macro explanation simplifies to "it won't work because we refuse".

I've already granted that. We are stuck with covid because the right wing here refuses to get with the program. See, we agree.

Your macro/micro stuff is a bit off, though.

The normal macro/micro distinction is more about externalities. I can lower my personal driving risk by buying a heavier vehicle. But this doesn't help overall, because the reduced risk for me is offset by increased risk to pedestrians and to other drivers. So the micro effect is beneficial, but the macro effect is negative.

None of that applies to Cioppino. When I skip Cioppino, there is no negative covid externality to offset my local benefit. In fact, the external covid effect (less risk for the waiter) is also beneficial. So the macro effect is aligned with the micro.

If you want to use macro/micro, you need some kind of large scale prisoner's dilemma. Covid case rates don't provide that.

-Buzz Feldstein ( Chicago school. )

Oh so now you're on to externalities? Welcome to the party Alice. I love your analogies. Selective bias much? Not buying your bull shit. Always find your post eloquent but selectively bias with collectivism masquerading as interventionism. Dervish on.

 

[dad4]

Care. Evil. Disbelieve. Guilt. Man you’ve gone full preacher and are just oozing the words of religion.

For most of us on team reality it’s not about feelings. It’s about making rational judgments not based in fear but calculating the cost/benefits given the limitations on what we are working with. It’s not that fauci is evil (anymore than trump or Biden are) but that he’s self-obsessed, ineffective or downright wrong in his messaging.

Your first sentence is so sad...even if said in half jest....I say this even as a low extrovert that can appreciate both the is and es. It’s more sad than that scene where Jessie’s owner abandons her. Childhood must have been so difficult for you.

Religion is meant to give guidance towards ethical behavior in times of crisis. If you're thinking about what it means to be a good person, you're going to share some vocabulary with your preacher.

Except, of course, if you prefer a preacher who tends his flock by building a crystal palace and buying himself designer clothes. Those exist, too.

 

[Grace T.]

1. Even Fauci doesn't seem to fully agree with the CDC camp guidelines
2. Fauci is really horrible at the public relations aspect of his job. Here he manages to neither appease Savannah nor defend the CDC guidelines.
3. To make matters worse, he yuks it up when Savannah mentions the names of her 2 kids. Not a good look.
4. The CDC guidelines really are horrible and they contradict the guidance on masks and outdoor activities.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389927079366569993

 

[Grace T.]

Religion is meant to give guidance towards ethical behavior in times of crisis. If you're thinking about what it means to be a good person, you're going to share some vocabulary with your preacher.

Except, of course, if you prefer a preacher who tends his flock by building a crystal palace and buying himself designer clothes. Those exist, too.

Wow you've actually admitted it. Color me shocked.

The disconnect all along is that you've been preaching morality, while the rest of us having been discussing solutions in the real world subject to real world limitations. It clarifies a lot. You are the old timey preacher railing on the sins of alcoholism....not the politician trying to decide what to do about it....or the federal agent that actually has to go out and enforce Prohibition.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

If we aren’t emotionally or financially capable of doing it then why are we arguing about it? Otherwise we are back to you preaching rather than offering prescriptive solutions, which is why you’ve declined to put forward one. It’s easier to preach the virtues of star command than to actually go out there and fight zog or zur or whatever the thing is. It’s easier to cast aspersions on people (when you yourself failed) than to accept that there may not be many good solutions. It’s easier to build your ideal Soviet man than to deal with the messy reality of how people are and to make a cost benefit analysis. The tough cost benefit analysis you keep saying you are willing to make but never get to.

Dad4 has cast out history to focus only on stats. He would have served Hitler well.