here's actuals vs predicts for this last weekend (9/21/19) home team is listed first. one at a glance takeaway is that there's maybe a lot of parity this year. LAFC might be the one exception but should make for an interesting season for the rest of the group.
one backdrop/context is that USSDA recently grouped the u19s into tier 1 and tier 2 (all mls teams have been initially grouped into tier 1) and said that they were looking to extend this tiering into the younger age groups next season, so results may matter a lot more this season. Does anyone have any additional news/insight/updates on this?
predict: Crossfire Premier 3 vs Real SoCal 0. Actuals: Crossfire Premier 2 vs Real SoCal 2
note: per the game report, looks like a fun match. RSC went up early 1-0 at the five minute mark but xfire tied so 1-1 at half. Three yellow in the 2nd half. xfire went ahead 2-1 at the 56th minute but RSC tied at the 80th for the final 2-2 result. of note, xfire's 04 player (each u15 team is allowed two 04 players on its game day roster but only some teams take advantage of this rule) accounted for both xfire goals. two decent results for RSC against very solid teams (RSC tied Strikers last week 1-1). it's early, but the first two results bode well for RSC.
predict: Real Salt Lake 1 vs Seattle Sounders 2. Actuals: Real Salt Lake 1 vs Seattle Sounders 1
note: decent result for RSL. RSL is about about 50% brand new w/ some strong new players but still seems like they should be doing better - and playing more dynamically - than they have been. maybe an unrealistic expectation but RSL still has some latent offensive firepower than hasn't really manifested yet. Sounders are strong, maybe a bit better than LAG.
predict: Nomads 2 vs Albion 2. Actuals: Nomads 4 vs Albion 2
note: decent result for the Nomads. per the game report, match started fast and furious with Nomads getting two quick ones in the first five minutes but Albion responded at about the 10th minute to make the score 2-1 and then picked up a yellow about five minutes later. Things settled down after that and the score was still 2-1 at half. Nomads pick up two more later to make it 4-1 but Albion got one back at the 7th minute for what was the final result of 4-2 Nomads.
predict: Arsenal 3 vs Breakers 1. Actuals: Arsenal 1 vs Breakers 0
note: here's commentary from Benchwarmer (thx!): "Decent game, breakers actually scored at the end of the 1st half but was taken away by offsides call. Arsenal scored on a set play in 2nd half"
predict: LAFC 4 vs SD Surf 0. Actuals: LAFC 0 vs SD Surf 0
note: As a reminder, SD Surf lost 10 starters from last season plus their coach - BD - left 2/3's of the season to got to LAFC.. Game report says that seven LAFc staff were present at the match but not BD. On the soccer side, the game report says that there were three yellows but that's not unusual at this age level. At first glance, it looks like there were some odd substitutions by both teams with players who might be expected to go a full 80 in a match like this being subbed out.
would have thought that LAFC might have gone stronger to make statement win but without having seen the match it's tough to tell how it went.
Got an offline DM with more details... Sounds like SD Surf bunkered and din't get a shot off the whole game. XG played decent but is stuck in a tough situation without a lot of the kind of help he is used since so many SD Surf players from last season left. (also, XG's dad is the team coach). On the LAFC side, it sounds like they took this one for granted and played lackadaisically. Strong statement to make about a very good team, but it's also not the first time these LAFC boys have dipped like this.
Anyone have other commentary/insights here? either for post or dm?
predict: Ballistic 2 vs LAGSD 2 Actuals: Ballistic 1 vs LAGSD 2
note: socal for the win! per the game report, it looks like LAGSD had this match in hand most of the way with Ballistic only getting their goal from a LAGSD own goal mistake.
Anyone have commentary/insights here?
predict: Sacramento Republic 1 vs San Jose Earthquakes 2 Actuals: Sacramento Republic 0 vs San Jose Earthquakes 0
note: this is a norcal match but am tracking since the algo needs the data. result will be a good indicator to socal team about which of these teams is the best. for reference, this one is like LAFC vs LAG or Strikers vs SD Surf down here.
predict: TFA 1 vs LA Galaxy 3. Actuals: TFA 1 vs LA Galaxy 1
note: as a reminder, TFA lost 12 rostered 2018-19 players coming into the 2019-20 season. so 2019-20 TFA is not 2018-19 TFA. by comparison, LAG, after churning 50% of their roster in 2018-19, only churned 3-4 players this season.
so, very solid result by TFA given their roster changes. per the game report, it was 0-0 at half. LAG scored first in the 2nd half and had two yellows. interestingly, TFA had no yellow for the game, which is unusual for this age group and also in match that presumably was meaningful for TFA. TFA tied it at the 80th minute for the final 1-1 result.
Some might take this match as evidence that the chatter about LAG underperforming has some basis, and certainly all things being equal, these last three LAG results would tend to support that.
However, there has also been a lot of regime change at LAG and they still seem to be sorting things out. Looking at the sub patterns from the game reports seems to indicate that LAG is seeing who can do what. Have never been the LAG apologist, but it feels like LAG's performance in November-ish may be more indicative of the team's strength than right now.
predict: LAUFA 2 FC Golden State 3. Actuals: LAUFA 0 FC Golden State 3
note: solid match by FCG. VM - an add this season from TFA - had two for FCG and has five goals in four matches this year. FCG could be a team to watch this year.
predict: Barca 3 vs Strikers 1. Actuals: Barca 1 vs Strikers 1 (algo was right; human error adjusted the predict to 3-1, alas)
note: "algo had this one at 1-1, but best guess is 3-1 Barca" = famous last words...
was looking forward to see how this match player out. Barca added 11 DA players - including four from SD Surf and two from TFA - to a roster that already included the #1 05 player in the country (per TDS). meanwhile, Strikers lost one of their leading scorers to LAFC and another top 05 - FJ - signed a pro contract with a USL team (although he's still rostered w/ the 05s)
Both teams were playing to win this one with a relatively few subs (per the game report, Barca had ten staff at the match) and the two goals both came after the 75the minute in what looks was a hard fought match. Strikers had two late yellows.
For the interested SoCal folks, three SD Surf players played 237 out of 240 possible minutes but one of the SD Surf players only played three minutes. On the TFA side, the two TFA players played 146 out of a possible 160 minutes.
any commentary/insight on this one?
predict: Vancouver Whitecaps 4 vs. Portland Timbers 4. Actuals: pending
predict: TFA 2 vs Arsenal 1. Actuals: TFA 1 vs Arsenal 1
note: here's commentary from Benchwarmer (thx and thx again for both Arsenal match results): "TFA came out guns blazing missing two really good opportunities to start the game. Good goalkeeping has solidified the teams defense. TFA scores 1st in 2nd half and arsenal tied up the score before the end of game."