2005 DA Standings

Hot off the presses, below predicts for matches this weekend.

Still mostly based on results and trends from last year (so insert all of last week's caveats here) but modified algo to include an adjustment to a team's likely result based on relative strength/weakness of 2018-19 group.

Ex. Oregon score just over 50% fewer goals per game than SD teams. Similarly, Oregon teams typically allow about 3x more goals than SD teams. So, while the top Oregon team may blow out the other Oregon teams, they really are middle of the pack relative to SoCal teams.

A good real world example of this is that RSL (w/ a number of SoCal players) tied Portland Timbers 3-3 even though RSL played most of the match down a man. (Speaking of RSL, will try to include RSL predicts as of next week. Need to do include some data that's not currently in the model to be anywhere close to accurate for RSL)​

Here's predicts. Home (as always) is listed first. Best of luck!

SD Surf 2 vs De Anza 1
SD Surf performed about as expected last week. As a reminder, they lost most of their starting line-up from 2018-19 to RSL and Barcelona but do still have XG and TW, which is non-trivial.

Despite the 8/31 0-5 scoreline against LAFC, De Anza is a good team. On the flip side, best bet is that last week's tie against the Pats was a wake-up call/reality check for the SD Surf, and adjustments will be made this week.

LA Galaxy 2 vs San Jose Earthquakes 2 - match to watch
LAG started slow against FCG with the 2-1 win but only four LAG players went the full 80, and AK (in the mid) and JO (up top) were not rostered. Best guess is that they're going to strong against San Jose. On the flip side, San Jose had one of the D's in the country last year, particularly towards the end of the season with six shut-outs in their last six regular season away games.

Key to match for LAG - and, two cents here, for the season - is if JO is back, can they get JO and JR on the field at the time and have them be productive.

Strikers 5 vs Real SoCal 1
Strikers lost SR, who accounted for about 20% of the Strikers scoring in 2018-19, to LAFC, and it's unclear if FJ, who signed something with OC Blues, will be rostered. Still, the Strikers have a fair amount of firepower in most spots.

On the flip, RSC slimmed their roster down while adding size and speed, and could have one of the stronger midfields in SoCal this year. However, RSC still doesn't look like they have answers for how to get the ball in the back of the net, a problem they had last year, for example, averaging .85 goals per game in away matches.

LAFC 11 vs Pateadores 0
Yeah. Unfortunately, Pats tied SD Surf 1-1 last week, and, this season, LAFC '05s may be looking to make a statement.

FC Golden State 2 vs Sacramento Republic 2 - match to watch
This one is interesting. FC Golden State has added some firepower and, at least as of last season, had good size. On the other hand, Sacramento is no slouch and would give them the edge at home. But, FCG is tough to play at home and Sacramento has tough travel to get out to FCG's home field, so calling it a tie. Will be a good measure for how FCG is likely to do this season.

TFA 5 vs Ballistic 3
TFA picked up a number of solid players from LAUFA but aren't what they were last year where they were knocking on LAG and LAFC's door. Ballistic has a solid D but is traveling. Edge to TFA.

LAUFA 2 vs LAGSD 3
LAUFA will have their hands full with LAGSD's big forward and this one looks like it will be match-up driven. Algo says it will be close but it could get away from LAUFA if they don't have a defender who can match up.

Pateadores 1 vs San Jose Earthquakes 5
Tough weekend for the Pats, but they should feel good if they can get one in and if they can keep San Jose under five goals.

LAUFA 5 vs Ballistic 2
Interestingly, the algo has LAUFA doing a little bit better against Ballistic than TFA, holding Ballistic to one fewer goals. Will likely be theme thru the season where LAUFA and TFA project out with similar results. Be interesting to see the directions which player and team development take over the course of the season.

FC Golden State 4 vs De Anza 2
Reports had De Anza as the better team than Sacramento against LAFC, but the algo has Sacramento, based on results last season, has the stronger away team.

 
Kante said:
Hot off the presses, below predicts for matches this weekend.



LA Galaxy 2 vs San Jose Earthquakes 2 - match to watch
LAG started slow against FCG with the 2-1 win but only four LAG players went the full 80, and AK (in the mid) and JO (up top) were not rostered. Best guess is that they're going to strong against San Jose. On the flip side, San Jose had one of the D's in the country last year, particularly towards the end of the season with six shut-outs in their last six regular season away games.

Key to match for LAG - and, two cents here, for the season - is if JO is back, can they get JO and JR on the field at the time and have them be productive.

Click to expand...

Galaxy lost 4 -1. Not a good game and imho San Jose had control of the game. It’s only the second game in and maybe galaxy will find their groove. Time will tell.
 
Soccerdad2016 said:
Lights at LA City college never came on. Boys played 15 minutes, waited til 8 when the lights allegedly “might” come on. Never did. Great 5 + hours of driving. No score after 15 minutes.
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Wow! That sucks. I would have been involved in a road rage incident if I had been sitting in traffic on the 5 after that. I hope all my friends on LAGSD had a good day on Sunday to make up for that crappy experience.

Maybe in a couple of weeks you can have someone "forget" the keys at Army/Navy and return the favor.
 
Here's actuals vs predicts for this last weekend (9/14/19). home team is listed first.

predict: SD Surf 2 vs De Anza 1. Actuals: SD Surf 1 vs De Anza 1
note: per the game report, both teams had late goals for the 1-1 result. Any commentary or insight on this one?

predict: LA Galaxy 2 vs San Jose Earthquakes 2. Actuals: LA Galaxy 1 vs San Jose Earthquakes 4.
note: LAG went down to 10 men after a red card. Also, only three LAG players went the full 80 (last game only four went the full 80). JO and Dt were not rostered for the match.

predict: Strikers 5 vs Real SoCal 1. Actuals: Strikers 1 vs Real SoCal 1
note: Strikers seem to be lacking offensively with FJ not rostered and SR at LAFC but were up 1-0 at half. Per the game report, RSC scored at the 78th for the tie. Any commentary more here?

predict: LAFC 11 vs Pateadores 0. Actuals: LAFC 5 vs Pateadores 0
note: one observer said LAFC 07s were lackadaisical, almost disinterested, in their match vs the Pats. DC had three goals against the Pats, and, three games in, is averaging 2.65 goals per 80 minutes played. Any commentary on how this 05 match went?

predict: FC Golden State 2 vs Sacramento Republic 2. Actuals: FC Golden State 2 vs Sacramento Republic 3
note: game report has it a pretty close match. Tied 1-1 at half. FCG went ahead 2-1 w/ a VM goal but Sacramento responded quickly two goals for the win.

predict: TFA 5 vs Ballistic 3. Actuals: TFA 4 vs Ballistic 1.
note: per the game report, TFA looked pretty dominant. Any commentary more here?

predict: LAUFA 2 vs LAGSD 3 Actuals: ?
note: Although game report has this as a 0-0 tie, report was that, for whatever reason, lights were not available for this 7pm match, and LAGSD drove back to San Diego from LA on a Saturday night without a game. If this is not correct, please correct.

predict: Pateadores 1 vs San Jose Earthquakes 5. Actuals: Pateadores 0 vs San Jose Earthquakes 4

predict: LAUFA 5 vs Ballistic 2 Actuals: LAUFA 1 vs Ballistic 1
note: had thought TFA and LAUFA would be posting similar results against Ballistic. Nope.

predict: FC Golden State 4 vs De Anza 2. Actuals: FC Golden State 2 vs De Anza 1.
note: Any commentary here? Surprised that it was so low scoring
 
Soccerdad2016 said:
Lights at LA City college never came on. Boys played 15 minutes, waited til 8 when the lights allegedly “might” come on. Never did. Great 5 + hours of driving. No score after 15 minutes.
Click to expand...

What an inconvenience to all players, coaches and parents, unfortunately that is a typical LAUFA experience.
 
Kante said:
Here's actuals vs predicts for this last weekend (9/14/19). home team is listed first.

predict: SD Surf 2 vs De Anza 1. Actuals: SD Surf 1 vs De Anza 1
note: per the game report, both teams had late goals for the 1-1 result. Any commentary or insight on this one?

From what I could see, Surf played a 3-5-2 formation. That is tough to get right early in the season with so many new players.
Click to expand...
 
here's predicts for this weekend. home team is listed first. there's going to be a number of measuring stick games where teams will begin to get an idea of how the rest of their season may look. Should be some fun matches.

btw, please insert accuracy caveats here. most of the data for the algo is from last season. obviously there's been changes to rosters (have tried to account for these changes but...) usually it takes about ten games to start to zero in on more accurate predicts, so have been experimenting. thanks for the patience.

Crossfire Premier 3 vs Real SoCal 0 - match to watch
note: RSC has aspirations - and maybe the roster - to move up competitively but they look like - while they got stronger defensively/in the mid, they still have some challenges putting the ball in the back of the net. xfire should be a good measuring for RSC for where they're at and where they need to get to.

Real Salt Lake 1 vs Seattle Sounders 2 - match to watch
note: RSL is about about 50% brand new w/ some strong new players but seem like they should be doing better - and playing more dynamically - than they have been. Sounders are strong, maybe a bit better than LAG.

Nomads 2 vs Albion 2
note: was surprised by the algo here. would have thought that Albion would have the edge.

Arsenal 3 vs Breakers 1

LAFC 4 vs SD Surf 0 - match to watch
note: this will be the first match between these two teams since the former SD Surf coach - BD - left for LAFC. Not sure if BD will be coaching the LAFC u15s but that would definitely be a dramatic wrinkle. As a reminder, SD Surf lost 10 starters from last season, and will have everything to prove.

on the flip side, SD Surf was ranked #1 in the country most of last season, ahead of LAFC, so LAFC may come with a chip on their shoulder.

honestly, this match could go any of a number of ways, ranging from a LAFC blow-out to a close one if SD Surf somehow gets an early lead which is possible with XG and TW.

in all scenarios, though, SD Surf loses. this is one of those matches that you want to watch but you don't want to watch. be interesting to hear how this went.

Ballistic 2 vs LAGSD 2

Sacramento Republic 1 vs San Jose Earthquakes 2
note: yup, this a norcal match but am tracking since the algo needs the data. result will be a good indicator to socal team about which of these teams is the best. for reference, this one is like LAFC vs LAG or Strikers vs SD Surf down here.

TFA 1 vs LA Galaxy 3 - match to watch
note: TFA lost 12 rostered 2018-19 players coming into the 2019-20 season. so no 2019-20 TFA is not 2018-19 TFA. However, they definitely have something to prove.

Having said that, LAG, with their roster, should be winning games like this one by a blow-out. However, they still seem to be sorting things out and the last two results haven't been what one would expect from this team.

LAUFA 2 FC Golden State 3
note: FCG should win this, probably by a bigger margin given their roster adds this season but this is what the algo says. this is an 8pm game and, last week, LAUFA had some issues with lights for their 7pm game vs LAGSD. to be fair, life happens, but LAGSD drove a roundtrip of 5 hours for 20 minutes of soccer. hopefully, the lighting issue has been addressed.

Barca 3 vs Strikers 1 - match to watch
note: am fascinated how this plays out. Barca added 11 DA players - including four from SD Surf and two from TFA - to a roster that already included the #1 05 player in the country (per TDS). be interesting to see if BR really is all that.

meanwhile, Strikers lost one of their leading scorers to LAFC and another top 05 signed a pro contract with a USL team (although he's still rostered w/ the 05s).

algo had this one at 1-1, but best guess is 3-1 Barca.

Vancouver Whitecaps 4 vs. Portland Timbers 4
note: yup, this a nw match but am tracking since the algo needs the data. result will be a good indicator to socal team about which of these teams is the best. for reference, this one is like LAFC vs LAG or Strikers vs SD Surf down here.

TFA 2 vs Arsenal 1



 
Kante said:
here's predicts for this weekend. home team is listed first. there's going to be a number of measuring stick games where teams will begin to get an idea of how the rest of their season may look. Should be some fun matches.

btw, please insert accuracy caveats here. most of the data for the algo is from last season. obviously there's been changes to rosters (have tried to account for these changes but...) usually it takes about ten games to start to zero in on more accurate predicts, so have been experimenting. thanks for the patience.

Crossfire Premier 3 vs Real SoCal 0 - match to watch
note: RSC has aspirations - and maybe the roster - to move up competitively but they look like - while they got stronger defensively/in the mid, they still have some challenges putting the ball in the back of the net. xfire should be a good measuring for RSC for where they're at and where they need to get to.

Real Salt Lake 1 vs Seattle Sounders 2 - match to watch
note: RSL is about about 50% brand new w/ some strong new players but seem like they should be doing better - and playing more dynamically - than they have been. Sounders are strong, maybe a bit better than LAG.

Nomads 2 vs Albion 2
note: was surprised by the algo here. would have thought that Albion would have the edge.

Arsenal 3 vs Breakers 1

LAFC 4 vs SD Surf 0 - match to watch
note: this will be the first match between these two teams since the former SD Surf coach - BD - left for LAFC. Not sure if BD will be coaching the LAFC u15s but that would definitely be a dramatic wrinkle. As a reminder, SD Surf lost 10 starters from last season, and will have everything to prove.

on the flip side, SD Surf was ranked #1 in the country most of last season, ahead of LAFC, so LAFC may come with a chip on their shoulder.

honestly, this match could go any of a number of ways, ranging from a LAFC blow-out to a close one if SD Surf somehow gets an early lead which is possible with XG and TW.

in all scenarios, though, SD Surf loses. this is one of those matches that you want to watch but you don't want to watch. be interesting to hear how this went.

Ballistic 2 vs LAGSD 2

Sacramento Republic 1 vs San Jose Earthquakes 2
note: yup, this a norcal match but am tracking since the algo needs the data. result will be a good indicator to socal team about which of these teams is the best. for reference, this one is like LAFC vs LAG or Strikers vs SD Surf down here.

TFA 1 vs LA Galaxy 3 - match to watch
note: TFA lost 12 rostered 2018-19 players coming into the 2019-20 season. so no 2019-20 TFA is not 2018-19 TFA. However, they definitely have something to prove.

Having said that, LAG, with their roster, should be winning games like this one by a blow-out. However, they still seem to be sorting things out and the last two results haven't been what one would expect from this team.

LAUFA 2 FC Golden State 3
note: FCG should win this, probably by a bigger margin given their roster adds this season but this is what the algo says. this is an 8pm game and, last week, LAUFA had some issues with lights for their 7pm game vs LAGSD. to be fair, life happens, but LAGSD drove a roundtrip of 5 hours for 20 minutes of soccer. hopefully, the lighting issue has been addressed.

Barca 3 vs Strikers 1 - match to watch
note: am fascinated how this plays out. Barca added 11 DA players - including four from SD Surf and two from TFA - to a roster that already included the #1 05 player in the country (per TDS). be interesting to see if BR really is all that.

meanwhile, Strikers lost one of their leading scorers to LAFC and another top 05 signed a pro contract with a USL team (although he's still rostered w/ the 05s).

algo had this one at 1-1, but best guess is 3-1 Barca.

Vancouver Whitecaps 4 vs. Portland Timbers 4
note: yup, this a nw match but am tracking since the algo needs the data. result will be a good indicator to socal team about which of these teams is the best. for reference, this one is like LAFC vs LAG or Strikers vs SD Surf down here.

TFA 2 vs Arsenal 1
Click to expand...
Any further thoughts on Baalistic v LAGSD?
 
Soccerdad2016 said:
Any further thoughts on Baalistic v LAGSD?
Click to expand...
not much data to work from at this point in the season.

algo has it 2-2 but just barely, with the edge to LAGSD. could easily be 3-1 LAGSD. having said that, LAGSD being on the road will benefit Ballistic.

At the showcase last year, Ballistic beat LAGSD 3-1. LAGSD has improved since then while Ballistic looks about the same.

From the showcase, Ballistic looked technically solid but small. Good luck!
 
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1-1 Strikers and Barcelona, strikers looks great and strong on defense adding center back FR who played the past two years for Galaxy Academy !!!
 
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