Bad News Thread

[Grace T.]

Interesting study I just read re democratic republic of Congo. Lower incidence of covid in Southern Asia and Africa may be explained by a prepandemic covid like illness producing covid like antibodies and T cells. Will post when I’m back on a computer. India would have to be explained but it may also be the answer for why the meltdown is happening there despite a 50% seroprevalence in some areas....the new mutations may not be as robustly covered by the prior prepandemic immunity.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Start by looking at the prior administration’s lack of serious intent, how they ignored/denied the groundwork that was already in place provided by past administrations, undermining of their own team and its recommendations, etc. Except THAT reality first and the trends amongst the indoctrinated base it created, THEN you can begin to assess the overall response.

Speaking of the indoctrinated base.

 

[dad4]

The problem with that is then, as with Los Angeles, you’ll just say different variants. Otherwise Los Angeles is really all you need look at.

Sorry. The real world is messy. It really throws a monkey wrench into things when Dallas has R0=3 and LA has R0=5. It looks like the perfect thing to prove your side is right, and you're not allowed to compare them.

This is why you need statistical analysis, instead of just reposting carefully selected graphs with 2-5 misleading arrows.

 

[Grace T.]

Sorry. The real world is messy. It really throws a monkey wrench into things when Dallas has R0=3 and LA has R0=5. It looks like the perfect thing to prove your side is right, and you're not allowed to compare them.

This is why you need statistical analysis, instead of just reposting carefully selected graphs with 2-5 misleading arrows.

When you start throwing out everything it can lead to manipulation to get the results you want regardless of the side you are on. It takes an especially honest researcher with a self awareness of their bias. The cdc hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory on that front.

 

[dad4]

When you start throwing out everything it can lead to manipulation to get the results you want regardless of the side you are on. It takes an especially honest researcher with a self awareness of their bias. The cdc hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory on that front.

I don't think you will find many epidemiologists willing to do a direct policy comparison between cities where one has wild type covid and the other has a high transmissibility variant.

It would never make it through peer review. Internet trolls can get away with it. Real researchers can't.

 

[Kicker4Life]

Start by looking at the prior administration’s lack of serious intent, how they ignored/denied the groundwork that was already in place provided by past administrations, undermining of their own team and its recommendations, etc. Except THAT reality first and the trends amongst the indoctrinated base it created, THEN you can begin to assess the overall response.

So follow the politics not the science?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Sorry. The real world is messy. It really throws a monkey wrench into things when Dallas has R0=3 and LA has R0=5. It looks like the perfect thing to prove your side is right, and you're not allowed to compare them.

This is why you need statistical analysis, instead of just reposting carefully selected graphs with 2-5 misleading arrows.

I can take the arrows and labels out and let you tell your own story.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

I don't think you will find many epidemiologists willing to do a direct policy comparison between cities where one has wild type covid and the other has a high transmissibility variant.

It would never make it through peer review. Internet trolls can get away with it. Real researchers can't.

And they haven't. That's why the graphics list the sources. Please continue.

 

[Grace T.]

I don't think you will find many epidemiologists willing to do a direct policy comparison between cities where one has wild type covid and the other has a high transmissibility variant.

It would never make it through peer review. Internet trolls can get away with it. Real researchers can't.

So we are back to, due to demographic, cultural and variant differences, no such comparisons are possible.

 

[Hüsker Dü]

So follow the politics not the science?

Is it comprehension you lack or are you just intentionally ignorant?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

So we are back to, due to demographic, cultural and variant differences, no such comparisons are possible.

Too funny. Too bad Dad4 didn't start out with "no such comparisons are possible". He would have left his statistical analysis for the 2nd time we PCR, Mask, social distance, and shut down an economy to protect ourselves from a common cold virus.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Is it comprehension you lack or are you just intentionally ignorant?

Hanapaa!!

 

[Bruddah IZ]

First, the ol' California vs. Florida issue again. The best the excuse factory has been able to do is to pretend that Californians aren't complying with the regulations or they're not staying home. Why, they're still going to restaurants! This is supposed to be why California is doing worse than Florida at the present moment. In fact, the evidence is the other way around. Here's a plot of restaurant visits in Florida (top line) alongside restaurant visits in California (bottom line):

 

[Bruddah IZ]

First, the ol' California vs. Florida issue again. The best the excuse factory has been able to do is to pretend that Californians aren't complying with the regulations or they're not staying home. Why, they're still going to restaurants! This is supposed to be why California is doing worse than Florida at the present moment. In fact, the evidence is the other way around. Here's a plot of restaurant visits in Florida (top line) alongside restaurant visits in California (bottom line):

 

[dad4]

So we are back to, due to demographic, cultural and variant differences, no such comparisons are possible.

You're welcome to compare Michigan to Wisconsin last month. ( I know. You dislike NPI, so you don't want to talk about Michigan right now. ) But it's an interesting pair. Same variant, same weather, same SES, same culture, different policies. And Lake Michigan makes sure it's difficult to pop over the state border- at least for the high population areas.

At first glance MI/WI seems to be a strong argument in favor of keeping your restrictions until after you vaccinate.

Even then, it may not show much. You'd have to check whether WI and MI had similar seroprevalence before the MI rule changes. If WI was at 9% when MI was at 7% confirmed infections, then it may prove nothing more than that most people don't get infected twice.

Like I said, data is messy.

 

[Grace T.]

You're welcome to compare Michigan to Wisconsin last month. ( I know. You dislike NPI, so you don't want to talk about Michigan right now. ) But it's an interesting pair. Same variant, same weather, same SES, same culture, different policies. And Lake Michigan makes sure it's difficult to pop over the state border- at least for the high population areas.

At first glance MI/WI seems to be a strong argument in favor of keeping your restrictions until after you vaccinate.

Even then, it may not show much. You'd have to check whether WI and MI had similar seroprevalence before the MI rule changes. If WI was at 9% when MI was at 7% confirmed infections, then it may prove nothing more than that most people don't get infected twice.

Like I said, data is messy.

Didn’t the Wisconsin Supreme Court strike down the mask mandate at the end of March and everyone predicted as a result it would follow Michigan in April (but it didn’t)?

 

[kickingandscreaming]

You're welcome to compare Michigan to Wisconsin last month. ( I know. You dislike NPI, so you don't want to talk about Michigan right now. ) But it's an interesting pair. Same variant, same weather, same SES, same culture, different policies. And Lake Michigan makes sure it's difficult to pop over the state border- at least for the high population areas.

At first glance MI/WI seems to be a strong argument in favor of keeping your restrictions until after you vaccinate.

Even then, it may not show much. You'd have to check whether WI and MI had similar seroprevalence before the MI rule changes. If WI was at 9% when MI was at 7% confirmed infections, then it may prove nothing more than that most people don't get infected twice.

Like I said, data is messy.

Like I said, flip a coin. That's pretty much what using the epidemiologists' predictions for public policy comes down to. How useful is it if they blame it on housing density? That's not solvable in any practical way short-term and unlikely to be solved long term especially considering we will have many new immigrants. If they can't consistently predict outcomes of policy, we need to give less weight to their opinions.

 

[dad4]

Didn’t the Wisconsin Supreme Court strike down the mask mandate at the end of March and everyone predicted as a result it would follow Michigan in April (but it didn’t)?

What epidemiology training does the wisconsin supreme court have? Courts are collections of English majors who think they know everything. I don't have much respect for their scientific advice.

I looked up MI/WI. It is a bad comparison. Wisconsin had 11% confirmed cases. Michigan had 7%. All it proves is that you don't get a huge spike when you have a large immune population.

If you want to figure it out, look for places which had low to moderate seroprevalence and then changed behavior. MI, NE, India. Not sure where else fits the description.

If you just want to prove your side is right, ask team virus and they'll agree with you.

 

[Grace T.]

What epidemiology training does the wisconsin supreme court have? Courts are collections of English majors who think they know everything. I don't have much respect for their scientific advice.

I looked up MI/WI. It is a bad comparison. Wisconsin had 11% confirmed cases. Michigan had 7%. All it proves is that you don't get a huge spike when you have a large immune population.

If you want to figure it out, look for places which had low to moderate seroprevalence and then changed behavior. MI, NE, India. Not sure where else fits the description.

If you just want to prove your side is right, ask team virus and they'll agree with you.

So you invite a wi mi comparison and then when you don’t like what it shows say nevermind?

Or you could look at your preferred solution of masks+no indoor dining, look at Los Angeles, and see how well it worked.

 

[dad4]

Like I said, flip a coin. That's pretty much what using the epidemiologists' predictions for public policy comes down to. How useful is it if they blame it on housing density? That's not solvable in any practical way short-term and unlikely to be solved long term especially considering we will have many new immigrants. If they can't consistently predict outcomes of policy, we need to give less weight to their opinions.

Knowing the link to cramped housing helps you avoid drawing a bad policy conclusion from your LA data.

Unless you ignore it. Then you learn nothing, and it is that much harder to enact useful policies.

I don't think anyone has predictions as accurate as you want. They can tell you that cases will be higher with indoor dining than without. They can tell you that the choir practice is a bad idea. But they can't tell you what cases will be in 8-12 weeks.

Sorry. If someone had that crystal ball they'd use it.