2006 DA

Kante

GOLD
here's predicts for this weekend (11/23). home team is listed first, and order is alpha by home team.

Los Angeles
LAUFA 1 - Real SoCal 2 - match to watch
note: interesting match here that most might write off. Given the two teams' current trends, the algo has this one a lot closer than most might think, given that LAUFA is in the standings basement and most think RSC 06s have the potential to be one the better LA group teams.

So, RSC has been underperforming their potential a bit so far this season. Will be interesting to see if they can turn the corner a bit with this match.

On the flip side, LAUFA has tended to show some pride when playing better teams, with a 0-0 tie vs the LA Galaxy and a 1-2 loss to TFA.

Short version is that there's lots of subtext on this one, with both teams having points to prove. Likely will be hard fought, fun to watch match.


LAFC 4 - Legends 1

Pateadores 1 - LA Galaxy 4

Santa Barbara SC 1 - LA Surf 0 - match to watch
note: first, it bears noting generally that this match is LA Surf's seventh away game is in its first eight matches of the season. at this age, the away vs home effect is very significant, and would assume that most would be aware of that. So, not sure what USSDA is doing, stacking the scheduling deck against LA Surf to start the 2019-20 season. To be fair, maybe there's something up with LA Surf's home field...

in any case, in LA Surf's one home game this season, LA Surf lost 0-2 vs #1 ranked TFA as opposed to losing 1-9 to TFA away in an earlier match. make of that what you will.. short version is LA Surf is not great away, and may or may not be a lot better at home.

second, Santa Barbara seems to be pushing to get out of the LA group standings basement which is what makes this match worth watching.

Statistically, Santa Barbara have a solid defense but this strongly driven by their recent results against RSC and LAFC. haven't had feedback on the RSC match, but it sounds like the Santa Barbara's defensive strategy vs LAFC was a little cynical. Against LA Surf, would think that Santa Barbara would go at them, rather than bunker. offensively, Santa Barbara is anemic with the worst average goals scored per game in the LA group, and their offensive trend line over time is decidedly going in the wrong direction.

This match is opportunity for Santa Barbara to maybe open things a bit, score some goals and continue a decent defensive trend line.

will see how it goes.


Ventura Fusion 0 - TFA 6

San Diego
Murrieta Surf 1 - Strikers 2 - match to watch
note: that the Strikers are not in TDS' top 25 national rankings is a travesty. at the showcase, Strikers lost 0-2 to #4 ranked SJ Quakes, and lost 0-1 to #1 ranked TFA. And the Strikers have one of the best D's in the country with shutouts in six of their last nine matches.

but, to be fair to TDS, teams got to beat the best to be the best.

Speaking of which, Murrieta is no slouch. Their offense is top three in the SD group and has been trending stronger, but frankly Murrieta gives up too many goals.

Net net, this match is opportunity for the Strikers offense to show what they got, and also a very good test for Murrieta's offense. Should be a fairly wide open and fun to watch.


OC Surf 0 - Arsenal 2
Real Salt Lake AZ 3 - Nomads 0
Real Salt Lake AZ 3 - LAGSD 1
SDSC 1 - Murrieta Surf 3
SC del Sol 0 - LAGSD 0 (edge: LAGSD)
SC del Sol 1 - Nomads 0
 

focomoso

SILVER ELITE
note: first, it bears noting generally that this match is LA Surf's seventh away game is in its first eight matches of the season. at this age, the away vs home effect is very significant, and would assume that most would be aware of that. So, not sure what USSDA is doing, stacking the scheduling deck against LA Surf to start the 2019-20 season. To be fair, maybe there's something up with LA Surf's home field...
I suspect this has more to do with field availability on the LA Surf side. They're at the mercy of the La Canada football team.
 

Kante

GOLD
here's predicts vs actuals for this weekend (11/23). home team is listed first, and order is alpha by home team. Happy Turkey Day!

Los Angeles
predict: LAUFA 1 - Real SoCal 2 actuals: LAUFA 4- Real SoCal 3
note: interesting result. per game report, LAUFA was up 2-1 at ht, and seems like they stayed just ahead of RSC the whole game. LAUFA went up 3-1 at the 50th minute but RSC got close again with a goal at the 64th minute to make it 3-2 but LAUAF grabbed one last one at the 76th minute such that RSC's last minute goal didn't affect the outcome. Looks like a fun back and forth match to watch.

anyone have more insight/commentary?


predict: LAFC 4 - Legends 1 actuals: rescheduled

predict: Pateadores 1 - LA Galaxy 4 actuals: pending. anyone have score here

predict: Santa Barbara SC 1 - LA Surf 0 actuals: Santa Barbara SC 0 - LA Surf 1

note: comment that Santa Barbara has a mostly solid defense. offensively, Santa Barbara is anemic with the worst average goals scored per game in the LA group, and their offensive trend line over time is decidedly going in the wrong direction.

anyone have more insight or commentary?

predict: Ventura Fusion 0 - TFA 6 actuals: Ventura Fusion 1- TFA 6

San Diego
predict: Murrieta Surf 1 - Strikers 2 actuals: Murrieta Surf 0 - Strikers 4
note: that the Strikers are not in TDS' top 25 national rankings is a travesty. at the showcase, Strikers lost 0-2 to #4 ranked SJ Quakes, and lost 0-1 to #1 ranked TFA.

And the Strikers have one of the best D's in the country with shutouts in six seven of their last nine ten matches.

note: per the game report, looks like it was tight in the first half. Both teams have an issue at the 26th minute-ish with Murrieta picking up 3 cards and strikers picking up one. Strikers were up 1-0 at ht, but scored three more to lock down the 4-0 win.

anyone have more insight or commentary?

predict: OC Surf 0 - Arsenal 2 actuals: OC Surf 5 - Arsenal 1
note: interesting result. anyone have more insight or commentary?

predict: Real Salt Lake AZ 3 - Nomads 0 actuals: Real Salt Lake AZ 6- Nomads 0

predict: Real Salt Lake AZ 3 - LAGSD 1 actuals: pending. anyone have score here?

predict: SDSC 1 - Murrieta Surf 3 actuals: SDSC 3 - Murrieta Surf 1
note: interesting result. anyone have more insight or commentary?

predict: SC del Sol 0 - LAGSD 0 (edge: LAGSD) actuals: SC del Sol 1 - LAGSD 1

predict: SC del Sol 1 - Nomads 0 actuals: SC del Sol 3 - Nomads 0
 

Tvaughn33

BRONZE
here's predicts vs actuals for this weekend (11/23). home team is listed first, and order is alpha by home team. Happy Turkey Day!

Los Angeles
predict: LAUFA 1 - Real SoCal 2 actuals: LAUFA 4- Real SoCal 3
note: interesting result. per game report, LAUFA was up 2-1 at ht, and seems like they stayed just ahead of RSC the whole game. LAUFA went up 3-1 at the 50th minute but RSC got close again with a goal at the 64th minute to make it 3-2 but LAUAF grabbed one last one at the 76th minute such that RSC's last minute goal didn't affect the outcome. Looks like a fun back and forth match to watch.

anyone have more insight/commentary?


predict: LAFC 4 - Legends 1 actuals: rescheduled

predict: Pateadores 1 - LA Galaxy 4 actuals: pending. anyone have score here

predict: Santa Barbara SC 1 - LA Surf 0 actuals: Santa Barbara SC 0 - LA Surf 1

note: comment that Santa Barbara has a mostly solid defense. offensively, Santa Barbara is anemic with the worst average goals scored per game in the LA group, and their offensive trend line over time is decidedly going in the wrong direction.

anyone have more insight or commentary?

predict: Ventura Fusion 0 - TFA 6 actuals: Ventura Fusion 1- TFA 6

San Diego
predict: Murrieta Surf 1 - Strikers 2 actuals: Murrieta Surf 0 - Strikers 4
note: that the Strikers are not in TDS' top 25 national rankings is a travesty. at the showcase, Strikers lost 0-2 to #4 ranked SJ Quakes, and lost 0-1 to #1 ranked TFA.

And the Strikers have one of the best D's in the country with shutouts in six seven of their last nine ten matches.

note: per the game report, looks like it was tight in the first half. Both teams have an issue at the 26th minute-ish with Murrieta picking up 3 cards and strikers picking up one. Strikers were up 1-0 at ht, but scored three more to lock down the 4-0 win.


anyone have more insight or commentary?

predict: OC Surf 0 - Arsenal 2 actuals: OC Surf 5 - Arsenal 1
note: interesting result. anyone have more insight or commentary?

predict: Real Salt Lake AZ 3 - Nomads 0 actuals: Real Salt Lake AZ 6- Nomads 0

predict: Real Salt Lake AZ 3 - LAGSD 1 actuals: pending. anyone have score here?

predict: SDSC 1 - Murrieta Surf 3 actuals: SDSC 3 - Murrieta Surf 1
note: interesting result. anyone have more insight or commentary?

predict: SC del Sol 0 - LAGSD 0 (edge: LAGSD) actuals: SC del Sol 1 - LAGSD 1

predict: SC del Sol 1 - Nomads 0 actuals: SC del Sol 3 - Nomads 0
Real Salt Lake AZ 9 - LAGSD 2, RSL scored the first goal in 13 seconds, an offensive onslaught took place, RSL controlled the game and mainly played on one half of the field
 

Kante

GOLD
here's standings as of last weekend. highlighted best offensive teams (top 5 in socal and top 3 in group) and best defensive teams (same). SoCal standings are presented first and group standings are presented second.

here's SoCal standings. Per results from the showcase, the LA u14 group is a bit stronger than the SD u14 group, with the LA teams collecting 10 wins, 7 draws and six losses vs SD teams with 28 goals scored by LA teams vs 19 goals allowed.

1575051229722.png

Here's group standings:

1575053334944.png
 

Kiko9

BRONZE
here's standings as of last weekend. highlighted best offensive teams (top 5 in socal and top 3 in group) and best defensive teams (same). SoCal standings are presented first and group standings are presented second.

here's SoCal standings. Per results from the showcase, the LA u14 group is a bit stronger than the SD u14 group, with the LA teams collecting 10 wins, 7 draws and six losses vs SD teams with 28 goals scored by LA teams vs 19 goals allowed.

View attachment 5797

Here's group standings:

View attachment 5798
Kante.. what are your thoughts on this first half of the season and will TFA end up undefeated?
 

Kante

GOLD
Kante.. what are your thoughts on this first half of the season and will TFA end up undefeated?
Will TFA end up undefeated? an interesting question... (will post thoughts on first half of season in a later post)

Let's be honest, it's impossible to predict.

Having said that, let's take a look and maybe there might be some insight that's better than just checking the magic eight ball (but maybe not...)

1575311214474.png

1) One of the biggest variables is that TFA has been consistently playing 06s up so far this season (a total of seven 06s have played at one least match with the TFA 05s)

Lots of reason for this (eg, the 05s after losing a significant number of players from last year need the help), but will give credit where credit is due. The TFA coaches have been giving these 06s an opportunity to play against bigger/better players to help their development i.e. "playing the kids."

(In contrast, LAFC, despite their academy director of coaching saying in an interview that "going into next year (i.e. 2019-20), put results a little bit on the back burner ..." LAFC has only played less than a handful of players across all their three younger teams - u13,u14, and u15 - up an age group so far this season)

So, looked at how 06 TFA players being rostered/not rostered with the u14s affects the TFA u14 team performance with some regression analysis. (unfortunately, can only tell from u14 game reports if a player is or is not rostered, not how many minutes they played or if they started, so making the best of the available data...)

here's what the data says:
  • Offensively, DBA, JS and AM are big drivers on how well the u14 offense does, and they drive about 30% of the variation in offensive performance. TFA coaches seem to be aware of this and have only pulled one of these players at a time to play up w/ the 05s. (DBA missed the first match of the season against Ventura - when AM played 80 against LAGSD - due to suspension)
  • Defensively, EC, LM and DV are big drivers on TFA u14 defensive performance, and account for a surprising 86% of the variation in how well the u14 TFA defense does. So far though, only DV has played more than one match up w/ the 05s, so it's a small data set to look at.
  • An interesting point from the stats is that while DBA is a big contributor on offense, he's, statistically, a bit of a defensive liability. Conversely, LM and DV are rocks on defense, but, statistically, hold the offense back a bit.
Net net, the TFA coaches have interesting challenge optimizing the 06 and 05 rosters.

2) TFA have played seven of their first 11 group matches at home, and enjoy a significant offensive home field advantage - when other variables are controlled for (eg, rostered players, point in the season etc) - that accounts for 30% of TFA's variation in offensive performance.

As TFA plays more away matches in 2020, they'll likely have some offensive challenges.

So far this year,

Defensively, TFA doesn't seem affected by home vs away.

3) TFA has a poor trend line offensively this season, even when controlling for rostered players

View attachment 5839

Could be lots of reason for this downward trend including the TFA coaches looking to focus in games on more passing, playing out of the back, getting better defensively (this one seems to be likely in the case of TFA) etc.

However, teams - when they're dominant in their group - tend to become overconfident/less focused.

TFA only needs to look to LAFC's 05 team in the 2018-19 season when, a month after winning the Concacaf 05 club title on top of an undefeated 2017-18 season with a ridiculous +114 goal differential over 26 games (includes 3 showcase matches), LAFC lost 0-1 to Real SoCal - after playing, by most accounts, a lackadaisical match.

It's hard for any team of adults to maintain focus and discipline over a long season (and 25-30 games over ten months is a long season), let alone 13-14 year old boys.

And if TFA has a goal of going undefeated this season, they're going to have turn this offensive trend line above around.

Defensively, TFA seems to be on solid ground. here's their defensive trend line so far this year:

1575314905127.png
___________

So those are the key variables.

But, to be clear, most folks will be looking to see if TFA can do what LAFC 05s did in 2017-18, which was not to simply go undefeated.

The LAFC 05s won every match they played that season, and won decisively.

The TFA 06s have their work cut out for them, but it will be fun to see if they can pull it off.
 

Attachments

Kante

GOLD
here's predicts for this weekend. only two matches in the LA group.

LA Surf 0 - Ventura Fusion 1
note: LA Surf, after a difficult start where they gave up 17 goals in their first three games, has seen consistent improvement defensively since. however, LA Surf's offense scores the 2nd fewest goals in SoCal.

on the flip side, Ventura's defense has given up the most goals per game in all of SoCal. But Ventura's offense is decent, averaging 2.45 goals per game.

Net net, algo has this one as a low scoring win for Ventura. However, LA Surf is playing at home for only the second time this season, and Ventura is about a 50% worse team playing away rather than playing home, so will see.


FC Golden State 0 - TFA 1 - match to watch (likely the best offense in the country playing against what the algo says is the best defense in the country)
note: received the question, "can TFA go undefeated this year?". short answer is yes, but.... this match against FCG this weekend will be a key test.

TFA should roster the full 06 team (TFA, to their credit, has been playing more 06s up w/ 05s than other team in SoCal so far this season), but they're playing away (TFA , controlling for other factors, is a significantly worse team playing away than at home) and TFA's offense - although averaging a SoCal leading 5.27 goals scored per game - has seen a steady decline since the beginning of the season.

meanwhile, FCG has aspirations to Tier status but hasn't quite been able to climb that ladder yet. FCG's defense is by far the best in SoCal, with three shutouts in their last five games (including a 0-0 tie against LAFC) and, not counting a horrible first match against LAG, has averaged only .71 goals allowed since that first game. However, FCG's offense is bottom of the barrel.

An interesting twist is which players will FCG play. FCG has a team roster of 36 players (about 2/3's are PT players - check a game report to see FCG's full contingent of players) but, per USSDA rules, can only roster a max of 18 for the game.

Last time these teams met it was a 2-0 result for TFA, but TFA was missing JS, who is a significant offensive contributor, and EC, who is a significant defensive contributor.

Should be a fun, high stakes match to watch.
 
  • An interesting point from the stats is that while DBA is a big contributor on offense, he's, statistically, a bit of a defensive liability. Conversely, LM and DV are rocks on defense, but, statistically, hold the offense back a bit.
I heard that the TFA 06s will be going to the MIC cup again this spring. If that's the case and they prepare heavily for it with additional scrimmages, it'll be hard for them to maintain the focus to go undefeated here. Which is an absurd goal anyway.

Speaking of absurd, the idea that DV holds the offense back is bonkers. Sample size issues?
 
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