OC practice paused

[Grace T.]

Please share the studies and support for your comments. It is about hospitalization capacity! Obviously various levels of shut down work because the recent mandates on no indoor dining etc. reduced the increases we have been seeing in hospitalizations starting this last week.

There’s been a few. But I agree it’s about hospital capacity and the studies have focused on the r0 not hospital capacity. It also points then to lockdowns should be used only when an epidemic threatens that capacity. Not a National lockdown when some regions were ok

We don’t know why the curves are projecting downward either since those haven’t been studied. Ive argued it’s because the waves are mathematical and they’ll do that regardless of what govts do. Could also be because people get more cautious as things get worse. Also Mexico’s imports have begun to ease off as well.

 

[Sheriff Joe]

By the way...just because there is a study doesn't mean it is valid. There are many studies out there that aren't "peer reviewed". I stop reading at the point I see "not peer reviewed" because there are many studies reported that are crap. There is one study out there that says Hydrogen Peroxide cures cancer. Obviously the notation of being peer reviewed is not included.

I believe one of the studies you are referring to isn't peer reviewed and in fact includes 16 people.

The Key to Defeating COVID-19 Already Exists. We Need to Start Using It | Opinion

BY HARVEY A. RISCH, MD, PHD ON 7/23/20 AT 7:00 AM EDT
SHARE
OPINION CORONAVIRUS HEALTH AND MEDICINE MEDICINE FDA
As professor of epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health, I have authored over 300 peer-reviewed publications and currently hold senior positions on the editorial boards of several leading journals. I am usually accustomed to advocating for positions within the mainstream of medicine, so have been flummoxed to find that, in the midst of a crisis, I am fighting for a treatment that the data fully support but which, for reasons having nothing to do with a correct understanding of the science, has been pushed to the sidelines. As a result, tens of thousands of patients with COVID-19 are dying unnecessarily. Fortunately, the situation can be reversed easily and quickly.


I am referring, of course, to the medication hydroxychloroquine. When this inexpensive oral medication is given very early in the course of illness, before the virus has had time to multiply beyond control, it has shown to be highly effective, especially when given in combination with the antibiotics azithromycin or doxycycline and the nutritional supplement zinc.

 

[Keepermom2]

There’s been a few. But I agree it’s about hospital capacity and the studies have focused on the r0 not hospital capacity. It also points then to lockdowns should be used only when an epidemic threatens that capacity. Not a National lockdown when some regions were ok

We don’t know why the curves are projecting downward either since those haven’t been studied. Ive argued it’s because the waves are mathematical and they’ll do that regardless of what govts do. Could also be because people get more cautious as things get worse. Also Mexico’s imports have begun to ease off as well.

Logic....we have been increasing hospitalizations for COVID in OC every week since the pandemic started. There was never 1 week that there was a decrease. We got to a point of increasing hospitalizations by greater than 30% per week for 3 weeks at the time Newsom pulled back on openings.

We started seeing small decreases in the weekly increase within 2 weeks after the mandates to this last week we saw a weekly decrease for the first time since the Pandemic began. OC Health already attributed many outbreaks to restaurants.

If you look at the science, the primary means of transmission is through respiratory droplets and while you can get it from surfaces, the major spread comes from person to person contact so the Mexico notation is highly unlikely for such significant changes in a matter of weeks in most counties suffering from large increases in the prior weeks.

Your mathmatical theory falls apart when you look at Arizona, Florida, and Texas who didn't pull back until hospital capacity was already reached or almost reached and now that they did implement some pull backs, they are seeing some relief though not enough because they did it too late.

 

[espola]

The Key to Defeating COVID-19 Already Exists. We Need to Start Using It | Opinion

BY HARVEY A. RISCH, MD, PHD ON 7/23/20 AT 7:00 AM EDT
SHARE
OPINION CORONAVIRUS HEALTH AND MEDICINE MEDICINE FDA
As professor of epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health, I have authored over 300 peer-reviewed publications and currently hold senior positions on the editorial boards of several leading journals. I am usually accustomed to advocating for positions within the mainstream of medicine, so have been flummoxed to find that, in the midst of a crisis, I am fighting for a treatment that the data fully support but which, for reasons having nothing to do with a correct understanding of the science, has been pushed to the sidelines. As a result, tens of thousands of patients with COVID-19 are dying unnecessarily. Fortunately, the situation can be reversed easily and quickly.


I am referring, of course, to the medication hydroxychloroquine. When this inexpensive oral medication is given very early in the course of illness, before the virus has had time to multiply beyond control, it has shown to be highly effective, especially when given in combination with the antibiotics azithromycin or doxycycline and the nutritional supplement zinc.

That paper (and others by the same author) refer to using HCQ alone or in combination with other established antibiotics on patients who are already sick enough to seek treatment. It has little or no effect on the spread of covid-19 among the general population since it is not intended to be used in place of a proper vaccine.

 

[Grace T.]

Logic....we have been increasing hospitalizations for COVID in OC every week since the pandemic started. There was never 1 week that there was a decrease.

You've committed the causation logical fallacy. And undermined your own argument by saying there was never 1 week that there was a decrease despite govt policies. Not looking to get into a big back and forth with you since I'm busy packing, and I know your heart is in the right place and it would require a deep dive into the Mexico and Mexico border counties numbers. I'll just leave it that while you have several great points, you've overreached on the conclusions.

 

[dad4]

Logic....we have been increasing hospitalizations for COVID in OC every week since the pandemic started. There was never 1 week that there was a decrease. We got to a point of increasing hospitalizations by greater than 30% per week for 3 weeks at the time Newsom pulled back on openings.

We started seeing small decreases in the weekly increase within 2 weeks after the mandates to this last week we saw a weekly decrease for the first time since the Pandemic began. OC Health already attributed many outbreaks to restaurants.

If you look at the science, the primary means of transmission is through respiratory droplets and while you can get it from surfaces, the major spread comes from person to person contact so the Mexico notation is highly unlikely for such significant changes in a matter of weeks in most counties suffering from large increases in the prior weeks.

Your mathmatical theory falls apart when you look at Arizona, Florida, and Texas who didn't pull back until hospital capacity was already reached or almost reached and now that they did implement some pull backs, they are seeing some relief though not enough because they did it too late.

Phoenix has had a mask requirement since mid June, before their hospitals got really full and they had to import nurses.

Not clear how seriously they take it, but it is there.

 

[Ellejustus]

I hear announcement coming soon for the OC and youth sports

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Phoenix has had a mask requirement since mid June, before their hospitals got really full and they had to import nurses.

Not clear how seriously they take it, but it is there.

I believe they pulled back bars and gyms on June 29. In general, it appears that if there is at least some semblance of social distancing and avoiding large groups inside, the case load can be handled by hospitals. Also, in AZ, TX and FL they are likely approaching the level of immunity that the states in the NE have due to their initial wave. That helps.

 

[Keepermom2]

You've committed the causation logical fallacy. And undermined your own argument by saying there was never 1 week that there was a decrease despite govt policies. Not looking to get into a big back and forth with you since I'm busy packing, and I know your heart is in the right place and it would require a deep dive into the Mexico and Mexico border counties numbers. I'll just leave it that while you have several great points, you've overreached on the conclusions.

Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words....

 

[Copa9]

Hate to break it to you, but the Titanic has already crashed and your blaming the 1st officer because you don’t like they way he’s handing out the life rafts.

What happened to the captain?

exactly. Declining deaths

Newsom is just playing the Trump Games. But there is new hope with this new home testing for CovidView attachment 8298

Actually you might have a point, but send it to Trump. The latest studies do show stool samples can and do contain covid. Just a few days ago it was announced that a study of the waste water at Yosemite showed a high level of covid. Someone should develop a test for stool samples.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

I like what you have posted here, but you missed the point that none of that has anything to do with "herd immunity" as Luis seems to be claiming.

The more I look at the data the more I realize it best not to get too worked up about the percent needed for herd immunity: (1 - 1/R0). R0 is very tricky to calculate with accuracy and even if it is possible, it is likely that it will overestimate the percent needed for herd immunity given that we know that infections are driven by "super spreaders". It also doesn't help that R0 is not constant and depends on human behavior and the environment.

 

[lafalafa]

I hear announcement coming soon for the OC and youth sports

Weekend camps or clinics?

Reciieved notice today some cities are going to start permitting on August 1st outdoor youth sport camps on weekends only, but not during the week.

Not sure why the weekend only thing but have notices about openings starting Aug 1st for the weekends only Saturday or Sunday for the month of August only.

 

[Keepermom2]

You've committed the causation logical fallacy. And undermined your own argument by saying there was never 1 week that there was a decrease despite govt policies. Not looking to get into a big back and forth with you since I'm busy packing, and I know your heart is in the right place and it would require a deep dive into the Mexico and Mexico border counties numbers. I'll just leave it that while you have several great points, you've overreached on the conclusions.

Any discussion about mathematical equations related to herd immunity at this point in the pandemic is premature.

"Let’s say the R0 for COVID-19 is 2.5, meaning each infected person infects, on average, two and a half other people (a common estimate). In that case, the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 is 0.6, or 60%. That means the virus will spread at an accelerating rate until, on average across different places, 60% of the population becomes immune."

The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19

Herd immunity differs from place to place, and many factors influence how it’s calculated.

www.quantamagazine.org

 

[espola]

The more I look at the data the more I realize it best not to get too worked up about the percent needed for herd immunity: (1 - 1/R0). R0 is very tricky to calculate with accuracy and even if it is possible, it is likely that it will overestimate the percent needed for herd immunity given that we know that infections are driven by "super spreaders". It also doesn't help that R0 is not constant and depends on human behavior and the environment.

In the classical biological sense, herd immunity is achieved when sufficient members of the herd carry antibodies to the pathogen in question (either by having the disease and surviving it or by having the antibodies passed on by their birth mother) so that a new wave of infection from outside the herd has little effect. The level of post-infection survival needed to achieve herd immunity depends on the disease. I have noticed that a lot of people bring up "herd immunity" in the same kind of tone that they use with "First Amendment', which is meaningless without context.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

In the classical biological sense, herd immunity is achieved when sufficient members of the herd carry antibodies to the pathogen in question (either by having the disease and surviving it or by having the antibodies passed on by their birth mother) so that a new wave of infection from outside the herd has little effect. The level of post-infection survival needed to achieve herd immunity depends on the disease.

Yes, I'll add that there's also the "wild card" of how long immunity lasts.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Any discussion about mathematical equations related to herd immunity at this point in the pandemic is premature.

"Let’s say the R0 for COVID-19 is 2.5, meaning each infected person infects, on average, two and a half other people (a common estimate). In that case, the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 is 0.6, or 60%. That means the virus will spread at an accelerating rate until, on average across different places, 60% of the population becomes immune."

The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19

Herd immunity differs from place to place, and many factors influence how it’s calculated.

www.quantamagazine.org

Excellent article. It gets beyond the basic example you show and then explains why some experts expect it to be less than 60% - some significantly so. Not sure which ones were already peer reviewed.

It addressed the idea that some people are more susceptible than others. However, I was disappointed they didn't address the "super spreader" idea that is out there and whether these folks are just at the wrong place at the wrong time (random) or if there is a strong correlation to behavior and being a super spreader. It is not much of a stretch to believe that a "super spreader" is also much more likely to get the virus as the behaviors to spread to others would match the behaviors to get the virus. If super spreaders exist and are more likely to catch the virus, that would definitely lead to a more significant early spike in cases and then a considerably lower "herd immunity" percentage than initially estimated as "super spreaders" catch the virus at a rate higher than the lower spreaders.

 

[Keepermom2]

Excellent article. It gets beyond the basic example you show and then explains why some experts expect it to be less than 60% - some significantly so. Not sure which ones were already peer reviewed.

It addressed the idea that some people are more susceptible than others. However, I was disappointed they didn't address the "super spreader" idea that is out there and whether these folks are just at the wrong place at the wrong time (random) or if there is a strong correlation to behavior and being a super spreader. It is not much of a stretch to believe that a "super spreader" is also much more likely to get the virus as the behaviors to spread to others would match the behaviors to get the virus. If super spreaders exist and are more likely to catch the virus, that would definitely lead to a more significant early spike in cases and then a considerably lower "herd immunity" percentage than initially estimated as "super spreaders" catch the virus at a rate higher than the lower spreaders.

The basic premise is that we don't have enough information yet.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

The basic premise is that we don't have enough information yet.

They'll have a better idea once it's all over ;-). For now, the rate of positive tests and hospital occupancy rates are enough to know what direction things are going.

 

[Grace T.]

Any discussion about mathematical equations related to herd immunity at this point in the pandemic is premature.

"Let’s say the R0 for COVID-19 is 2.5, meaning each infected person infects, on average, two and a half other people (a common estimate). In that case, the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 is 0.6, or 60%. That means the virus will spread at an accelerating rate until, on average across different places, 60% of the population becomes immune."

The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19

Herd immunity differs from place to place, and many factors influence how it’s calculated.

www.quantamagazine.org

Herd immunity isn’t really the correct term. At a 20% refusal rate the vaccine isn’t going to get us to herd immunity. One thing is clear though. At about 15-20% penetration the thing does slow down. We don’t know yet why...is it because people freak out and ultra distance, some cross or T cell immunity, weather. We really don’t know. I’m skeptical it’s just because the governor shut indoor dining.

Was at 4 parks this weekend. 1 in moorpark had full blown adult and kids baseball game complete with uniforms. 1 soccer in Camarillo and 1 Agoura has teams scrimmaging with their full uniforms on (1 shut down and resumed when cops left). But van nuys was nuttiest. Several soccer pickup games, basketball and playground with the tape torn down, a full blown kids baseball game. Several bbqs. Cops standing their starring. Of course since exercising no masks...more dangerous than protests....social distancing is dead. Doubt governors puny measures are doing very much at this point.

 

[The Outlaw *BANNED*]

Sweden is having a much worse result than neighboring countries who imposed stricter measures.

Jury is still out, libtard. But you keep drumming up that fear. We're not even CLOSE to November yet.

Did Sweden's coronavirus strategy succeed or fail?

Despite global criticism, Sweden has seen a drop in serious Covid cases without ever having a lockdown.

www.bbc.com