Kante
PREMIER
Here's the most improved LA 2006 teams so far this year... Am doing this a little differently due to some constraints w/ the new bbs platform and there will be a separate thread w/ the least improved teams.
(If you read what's below already from the 07 post, apologies, please skip down.)
Usually, families and coaches will have some intuitive sense of how things are trending but it's hard to be concrete. The goal of this (long) post is to provide some objective data for evaluating DA team performance/development so far this season.
Will leave it to the clubs, coaches and families to interpret on whether or not the improvements or declines were due to development over time (i.e. good or bad coaching) or other reasons such as adding new players, a key player was injured for a bit etc.
The short version on the methodology for comparing teams is that the same algo being used to predict match results can also be used to track team progress relative to their peer group over time. This progress tracking is calculated as:
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Los Angeles
Most Improved #1: LAUFA
Have received more than a few comments in the past that there is bias against LAUFA. Data is what the data is, and, so far this season, LAUFA is the #1 most improved team in the 06 LA group.
This year started off tough for LAUFA, particularly with their 3-6 loss to Ventura, but they turned it around with a mostly solid trend line in the right direction after that match against Ventura.
LAUFA had two setbacks with their second loss against Ventura (maybe a tough match-up there for LAUFA..), and the November 14th tie against the Legends, but got back on the improvement track with a good win against RSC in their last match of 2019.
Offensively, the improvement has been fairly steady over time, and their best offensive match was against RSC.
Defensively, LAUFA saw significant improvement after they gave up 6 to Ventura at the beginning of the season, but were a little off track defensively in their last three matches of 2019.
Although there have been some bumps in the road, LAUFA has shown steady improvement thru 2019. Nicely done.
If anyone has insight into why u13 LAUFA is going in one direction while u14 LAUFA is going in a different direction, please ping over via DM.
Here’s the u14 LAUFA goal differential % over time chart:
Here's u14 LAUFA offensive/goals scored as % of average goals allowed by opponent improvement over time chart:
Here's u14 LAUFA's defensive/goals allowed as % of average goals scored by opponent improvement over time chart:
Most Improved #2: FC Golden State
FC Golden State is the 2nd most improved team through 2019. Interestingly, they had a similar timed dip as the u13s (i.e. after the Santa Barbara match).
FCG u14s were on a very solid improvement trend line thru the October match against Santa Barbara (a run of improvement that included a 0-0 result against LAFC, which by all accounts to date was a hard fought match), but then took a step down. Improvement continued but did not leverage the progress that had been made up to that point
Offensively, FC Golden State has shown some improvement but haven't been anything to write home about. They seem to have good ball movement with 11 players having scored and no player accounting for more than 25% of their goals.
Defensively, after their 1-6 loss to LA Galaxy at the start the season, FC Golden State has been making their bones with some of the best D best in the group with three shut-outs so far (including the 0-0 tie vs LAFC).
Looking at the 0-0 LAFC tie and the 0-2 result against TFA, FCG u14s might be a just a step or two from competing at the tier 1 level. Be interesting to watch their progress in 2020
Here’s the u14 FC Golden State goal differential % over time chart:
Here's u14 FC Golden State offensive/goals scored as % of average goals allowed by opponent improvement over time chart:
Here's u14 FC Golden State defensive/goals allowed as % of average goals scored by opponent improvement over time chart:
Most Improved #3: Santa Barbara SC
This one was close, and a a nod goes out to LA Surf because they were beaten out by Santa Barbara for #3 most improved by less than 1% improvement. Having said that, Santa Barbara SC is the #3 most improved team in the LA group. Now, folks connected to LA Surf may be saying "wait a minute, we beat Santa Barbara 1-0, what's with that?".
Fair question, not saying that Santa Barbara s better than LA Surf. Santa Barbara lost 1-0 , so they're not better, but they are ajust a nose more improved over time than LA Surf.
Santa Barbara's offense has a fairly consistent negative trend line over time and they've been shut out in more than 1/3 of their group matches this year.
They have fairly distributed scoring with only one player contributing just over 25% of their goals, but only six players have scored. Their best offensive match was their 1-2 (much tighter than expected) loss to LAFC.
Defensively is where Santa Barbara gets the job done, but that's also a bit complicated. Santa Barbara initially looks like steady defensive improvement, with some decent results (including the 1-2 result vs LAFC) but they've also been a little start/stop.
In particular, it looks like something went sideways after game six against LAUFA. Not sure what happened but Santa Barbara underperformed defensively for the 3-3 tie against Ventura and the 0-6 loss to LAG. Santa Barbara got back on track defensively against RSC and LAFC, but then went a little sideways, again, against LA Surf.
Be interesting to see what trend line they pick back up in 2020. There's some potential here, but...
Here’s the u14 Santa Barbara SC's goal differential % over time chart:
Here's u14 Santa Barbara SC's offensive/goals scored as % of average goals allowed by opponent improvement over time chart:
Here's u14 Santa Barbara SC's defensive/goals allowed as % of average goals scored by opponent improvement over time chart:
(If you read what's below already from the 07 post, apologies, please skip down.)
Usually, families and coaches will have some intuitive sense of how things are trending but it's hard to be concrete. The goal of this (long) post is to provide some objective data for evaluating DA team performance/development so far this season.
Will leave it to the clubs, coaches and families to interpret on whether or not the improvements or declines were due to development over time (i.e. good or bad coaching) or other reasons such as adding new players, a key player was injured for a bit etc.
The short version on the methodology for comparing teams is that the same algo being used to predict match results can also be used to track team progress relative to their peer group over time. This progress tracking is calculated as:
- the % of goals scored vs average goals allowed by each opponent (i.e. goal scoring effectiveness % per game)
- the % of goals allowed vs average goals scored by each opponent (i.e. goals defending % per game)
- goal differential % per game, which can be charted for each game to show improvement or decline trends over time.
_______
Los Angeles
Most Improved #1: LAUFA
Have received more than a few comments in the past that there is bias against LAUFA. Data is what the data is, and, so far this season, LAUFA is the #1 most improved team in the 06 LA group.
This year started off tough for LAUFA, particularly with their 3-6 loss to Ventura, but they turned it around with a mostly solid trend line in the right direction after that match against Ventura.
LAUFA had two setbacks with their second loss against Ventura (maybe a tough match-up there for LAUFA..), and the November 14th tie against the Legends, but got back on the improvement track with a good win against RSC in their last match of 2019.
Offensively, the improvement has been fairly steady over time, and their best offensive match was against RSC.
Defensively, LAUFA saw significant improvement after they gave up 6 to Ventura at the beginning of the season, but were a little off track defensively in their last three matches of 2019.
Although there have been some bumps in the road, LAUFA has shown steady improvement thru 2019. Nicely done.
If anyone has insight into why u13 LAUFA is going in one direction while u14 LAUFA is going in a different direction, please ping over via DM.
Here’s the u14 LAUFA goal differential % over time chart:
Here's u14 LAUFA offensive/goals scored as % of average goals allowed by opponent improvement over time chart:
Here's u14 LAUFA's defensive/goals allowed as % of average goals scored by opponent improvement over time chart:
Most Improved #2: FC Golden State
FC Golden State is the 2nd most improved team through 2019. Interestingly, they had a similar timed dip as the u13s (i.e. after the Santa Barbara match).
FCG u14s were on a very solid improvement trend line thru the October match against Santa Barbara (a run of improvement that included a 0-0 result against LAFC, which by all accounts to date was a hard fought match), but then took a step down. Improvement continued but did not leverage the progress that had been made up to that point
Offensively, FC Golden State has shown some improvement but haven't been anything to write home about. They seem to have good ball movement with 11 players having scored and no player accounting for more than 25% of their goals.
Defensively, after their 1-6 loss to LA Galaxy at the start the season, FC Golden State has been making their bones with some of the best D best in the group with three shut-outs so far (including the 0-0 tie vs LAFC).
Looking at the 0-0 LAFC tie and the 0-2 result against TFA, FCG u14s might be a just a step or two from competing at the tier 1 level. Be interesting to watch their progress in 2020
Here’s the u14 FC Golden State goal differential % over time chart:
Here's u14 FC Golden State offensive/goals scored as % of average goals allowed by opponent improvement over time chart:
Here's u14 FC Golden State defensive/goals allowed as % of average goals scored by opponent improvement over time chart:
Most Improved #3: Santa Barbara SC
This one was close, and a a nod goes out to LA Surf because they were beaten out by Santa Barbara for #3 most improved by less than 1% improvement. Having said that, Santa Barbara SC is the #3 most improved team in the LA group. Now, folks connected to LA Surf may be saying "wait a minute, we beat Santa Barbara 1-0, what's with that?".
Fair question, not saying that Santa Barbara s better than LA Surf. Santa Barbara lost 1-0 , so they're not better, but they are ajust a nose more improved over time than LA Surf.
Santa Barbara's offense has a fairly consistent negative trend line over time and they've been shut out in more than 1/3 of their group matches this year.
They have fairly distributed scoring with only one player contributing just over 25% of their goals, but only six players have scored. Their best offensive match was their 1-2 (much tighter than expected) loss to LAFC.
Defensively is where Santa Barbara gets the job done, but that's also a bit complicated. Santa Barbara initially looks like steady defensive improvement, with some decent results (including the 1-2 result vs LAFC) but they've also been a little start/stop.
In particular, it looks like something went sideways after game six against LAUFA. Not sure what happened but Santa Barbara underperformed defensively for the 3-3 tie against Ventura and the 0-6 loss to LAG. Santa Barbara got back on track defensively against RSC and LAFC, but then went a little sideways, again, against LA Surf.
Be interesting to see what trend line they pick back up in 2020. There's some potential here, but...
Here’s the u14 Santa Barbara SC's goal differential % over time chart:
Here's u14 Santa Barbara SC's offensive/goals scored as % of average goals allowed by opponent improvement over time chart:
Here's u14 Santa Barbara SC's defensive/goals allowed as % of average goals scored by opponent improvement over time chart: