Bad News Thread

My pediatrician friend doesn't think the under 12 will be vaccinated before mid fall. On our school call, according to her, they aren't very far in the testing for the under 12 and so far it has been very limited.

Wow she just blew my mind. Says the experimental label is probably not going to be removed for 1-2 years. If so, they can't mandate it.
 

Sounds pretty ominous. Guessing there is some correlation to a age, but not good news.
 
Can anyone make sense of this slide? What is California doing it with its IC U and hospital capacity?

The allegation is that California is deliberately lowering ICU capacity to justify purple plus lockdowns. I'm more wondering what is going on inside the hospitals. On the one hand, it's very clear the hospitals are stressed, there are horror stories of people dying, people who under other circumstances might be hospitalized to be safe are being sent home, there's been some scrubbing of elective procedures, and of ambulances being diverted to other hospitals. On the other hand, there hasn't been a whole lot of reporting of people being turned away from medical care, declarations that hospitals have collapsed, actual rationing of care where some people are just written off to die (despite LA now being either at or past peak and supposedly ICU capacity at 0%), and the nurses still have time to do tik tok.

My family is largely medical (except for us lawyer siblings) but none of them are active ER. But from what I can gather the hospitals are very stressed but no where near collapse. It's like a very very bad flu season. Hospitals are typically stressed in such times January-March though not usually this much except when a once in a decade flu even comes along. Anyone any first hand insight for what's actually going on? My impression is that it is bad, but there's also a whole lot of exaggeration going on.

 
Can anyone make sense of this slide? What is California doing it with its IC U and hospital capacity?

The allegation is that California is deliberately lowering ICU capacity to justify purple plus lockdowns. I'm more wondering what is going on inside the hospitals. On the one hand, it's very clear the hospitals are stressed, there are horror stories of people dying, people who under other circumstances might be hospitalized to be safe are being sent home, there's been some scrubbing of elective procedures, and of ambulances being diverted to other hospitals. On the other hand, there hasn't been a whole lot of reporting of people being turned away from medical care, declarations that hospitals have collapsed, actual rationing of care where some people are just written off to die (despite LA now being either at or past peak and supposedly ICU capacity at 0%), and the nurses still have time to do tik tok.

My family is largely medical (except for us lawyer siblings) but none of them are active ER. But from what I can gather the hospitals are very stressed but no where near collapse. It's like a very very bad flu season. Hospitals are typically stressed in such times January-March though not usually this much except when a once in a decade flu even comes along. Anyone any first hand insight for what's actually going on? My impression is that it is bad, but there's also a whole lot of exaggeration going on.


Some quick thoughts:

- Not sure we can compare ICU capacity versus a regular year given the likelihood the number has also dropped due to reduction in other ailments as a result of the lockdown. I don't have data here, but that would be one thing I'd look into.

- I wonder how easy hospital transfers are. It makes me worry about a single ICU capacity for all of SoCal. Like it's not telling the whole story. Some hospitals may be more impacted than others. This might explain the different stories one might be hearing.

- All of my Doctor friends work in SF. They are absolutely swamped. Much of this is related to additional process due to covid. But this goes beyond ER work.

- I've also heard many nurses don't want to shift to ICU work -- they can do this via union protections. I can't say I blame them. Perhaps there's issues related to this.

On the upside, I think our numbers, at least in NorCal, are starting to drop. I think by March we will all be in the Orange Tier.
 
Some quick thoughts:

- Not sure we can compare ICU capacity versus a regular year given the likelihood the number has also dropped due to reduction in other ailments as a result of the lockdown. I don't have data here, but that would be one thing I'd look into.

- I wonder how easy hospital transfers are. It makes me worry about a single ICU capacity for all of SoCal. Like it's not telling the whole story. Some hospitals may be more impacted than others. This might explain the different stories one might be hearing.

- All of my Doctor friends work in SF. They are absolutely swamped. Much of this is related to additional process due to covid. But this goes beyond ER work.

- I've also heard many nurses don't want to shift to ICU work -- they can do this via union protections. I can't say I blame them. Perhaps there's issues related to this.

On the upside, I think our numbers, at least in NorCal, are starting to drop. I think by March we will all be in the Orange Tier.
Useful! Thanks!

VC numbers are starting to drop too. LA is past peak as well. VC, unlike LA, is no where near a point you can make the herd immunity argument and if the holidays were the central issue VC should still be continuing to accelerate as it makes its way through families.

 
Same thoughts as Norcal Dad- all our RN friends say that yes- they are very busy. Partly due to an increase of patients and partly due to additional processes' due to covid. Plus, mental fatigue is very real.
 
- I wonder how easy hospital transfers are. It makes me worry about a single ICU capacity for all of SoCal. Like it's not telling the whole story. Some hospitals may be more impacted than others. This might explain the different stories one might be hearing.
I don't know how easy it is, but I know for a fact that it is happening fairly regularly within one hospital system. LA and IE to San Diego.

Just FYI while the Southern California region has been reporting 0% for ICU capacity for a few weeks, San Diego has been as high as 20% during this period. It's currently at 12%. No clue how the math works for the region.
 
I don't know how easy it is, but I know for a fact that it is happening fairly regularly within one hospital system. LA and IE to San Diego.

Just FYI while the Southern California region has been reporting 0% for ICU capacity for a few weeks, San Diego has been as high as 20% during this period. It's currently at 12%. No clue how the math works for the region.

Supposedly VC reported a negative number a few days, so who knows.

The other head scratcher if 0 really means zero wouldn't the press stories be that people are dying in the hallways unable to obtain medical care?
 
Supposedly VC reported a negative number a few days, so who knows.

The other head scratcher if 0 really means zero wouldn't the press stories be that people are dying in the hallways unable to obtain medical care?
Common Core math? (BTW I'm not opposed to the analytical concept of Common Core, but the implementation and execution of it is horrific.)
 
Common Core math? (BTW I'm not opposed to the analytical concept of Common Core, but the implementation and execution of it is horrific.)

I'm opposed to it because I have no idea how to help my kids with their homework sometimes. I usually just say "Can't you just add it? Back in my day, we didn't need no stinking boxes to add two numbers"

I'm mostly kidding here...
 
I'm opposed to it because I have no idea how to help my kids with their homework sometimes. I usually just say "Can't you just add it? Back in my day, we didn't need no stinking boxes to add two numbers"

I'm mostly kidding here...

How did you do long division? Or find square roots?
 
Supposedly VC reported a negative number a few days, so who knows.

The other head scratcher if 0 really means zero wouldn't the press stories be that people are dying in the hallways unable to obtain medical care?

ICU and Hospital capacity calculations for the Regional Stay at Home order are based on non-surge capacity. Hence the discrepancy between the actual beds available vs. 0% capacity reporting/basis for the regional health orders.
 
ICU and Hospital capacity calculations for the Regional Stay at Home order are based on non-surge capacity. Hence the discrepancy between the actual beds available vs. 0% capacity reporting/basis for the regional health orders.

Figures. That's so stupid. They are basically lying again for propaganda's sake. Thanks for info!
 
I'm opposed to it because I have no idea how to help my kids with their homework sometimes. I usually just say "Can't you just add it? Back in my day, we didn't need no stinking boxes to add two numbers"

I'm mostly kidding here...
We can all feel your pain. I once wrote a note to the elementary teacher in the margins of my daughter's math homework something to effect of I'm a CPA and I have no clue how to do this homework. Smarter than a 5th grader, nope, not me.
 
We can all feel your pain. I once wrote a note to the elementary teacher in the margins of my daughter's math homework something to effect of I'm a CPA and I have no clue how to do this homework. Smarter than a 5th grader, nope, not me.
I once solved a problem for my 4th grader using Algebra, which she had never been taught. I wrote a note in the margin asking the teacher to let me know how to solve it without Algebra ... still waiting.
 
Story in la times. Unless the az (already being deployed in the uk) or j&j vaccine is deployed at the current rate we won’t get past seniors and certain essential workers/homeless/prisoners until June.
 
Back
Top