Bad News Thread

Locked in cabins? Says who?

I can easily imagine a cruise with vaccinated passengers who all got tested before boarding.

You're still stuck in a boolean model. The world is not always zero or one. Usually, it is in between. Take some stats. Embrace the probability distribution. Learn the difference between p= 10^-3 and p=10^-6.

Just don't go Bayesian with it. They call you racist if you go Bayesian.
They did test everyone before boarding. Yet 2 people during the cruise came out positive. Not sure why. I think it may be because they rapid tested people before boarding and then tested them on board afterwards. It's very confusing, but the way they did it at least clearly didn't work because now not only the couple but several others have to quarantine on a completely vaccinated ship.
 
Maybe poor taste is the wrong word. Let me just put it to you this way. I don't what to start my customer relationship with "Can I see your vaccine card?" Your immediately questioning the trust you have in that individual.

It's a virus with very low risk. For the 100th time if you're uncomfortable with that risk, stay home. Catering to the lowest common denominator gets us nowhere.
And, for the 100th time, me staying home doesn’t help. It has nothing to do with my personal risk.

What I want is the overall case load to keep dropping and eventually stay near zero. Having the masked, vaccinated crowd stay home does not help achieve that goal.

My objection is to the unmasked, unvaccinated crowd acting as vaccine incubators, and continually raising the risk for everyone else.
 
And, for the 100th time, me staying home doesn’t help. It has nothing to do with my personal risk.

What I want is the overall case load to keep dropping and eventually stay near zero. Having the masked, vaccinated crowd stay home does not help achieve that goal.

My objection is to the unmasked, unvaccinated crowd acting as vaccine incubators, and continually raising the risk for everyone else.
It may never be zero (at least not for years). We can’t even get polio to zero and have had periodic measles outbreaks (despite having a very good vaccine against a very stable virus). As I mentioned before rsv kills hundreds of children and thousands of elderly each year and we don’t go into a panic over rsv shutting down the day cares to prevent the elderly from dying...if anything we encourage kids to get it early so their immune systems become primed against it since complications tend to occur in infants and more grown children. And we know the coronavirus is mutating...life tends to find a way...and the delta variant is pretty close to breaking through...a few more years of this we will eventually get a cases (but not necessarily deaths) breakthrough. And we suspect if they did do enhancements to the virus that it may be primed to do exactly that: adapt to humans until it achieved an ultimate outcome (which for viruses means survival And replication....not necessarily killing the hosts)
 
People being people.....such people who don't trust the vaccine and want their fellow travellers quarantined if they test positive will be happy until they find they were at the dinner table with said people and now have to wait 3 days locked in their cabins until they can be tested.

I have looked, but I can't find any evidence that other people on the ship were locked in their cabins for three days, or any time at all, for that matter. Where did you get this?
 
And, for the 100th time, me staying home doesn’t help. It has nothing to do with my personal risk.

What I want is the overall case load to keep dropping and eventually stay near zero. Having the masked, vaccinated crowd stay home does not help achieve that goal.

My objection is to the unmasked, unvaccinated crowd acting as vaccine incubators, and continually raising the risk for everyone else.

Also genuinely curious....assume it doesn't go away anytime soon....where do you think is the acceptable level before life completely returns to normal: a bad flu season (which is where at current vaccination levels and current variants we are currently at), an average flu season, an RSV epidemic, the common cold (which kills thousands of elderly every year), adenovirus outbreak (man my entire family came down with that one when the kids were in day care....2 days into a family reunion trip to Hawaii....almost everyone in the family including uncles and aunts came down with it....digestive problems, fever, conjunctivitis, ear infections...fortunately at the time there weren't any severely elderly in our family and there are only a handful of children in the family [which interestingly none but mine came down with it]), measles, never?
 
I have looked, but I can't find any evidence that other people on the ship were locked in their cabins for three days, or any time at all, for that matter. Where did you get this?

The news just broke last night. The AP said they were contact tracing and appropriate steps would be taken to isolate those exposed. I've been waiting for the update but haven't found exactly what they decided to do yet (who, if any one, they will isolate and how long)...seems like this took them by surprise and are still waiting to hear re guidance from authorities and the cruise line. There's a reporter from the Times on the cruise live tweeting on it, but she has nothing on it yet.

It's all very strange. Why not, if you are going to insist on both, have them present a test within 48 hours before boarding and rapid test them when they get on....why was there testing done at the boarding site, when you know a positive result could come back 24 hours later. Or did the couple get tested on ship for some reason? Odd. The reporting isn't clear.

Oh but the positive couple have been definitely put in an isolation cabin according to the Times reporter from this am. She doesn't say for how long.
 
Also genuinely curious....assume it doesn't go away anytime soon....where do you think is the acceptable level before life completely returns to normal: a bad flu season (which is where at current vaccination levels and current variants we are currently at), an average flu season, an RSV epidemic, the common cold (which kills thousands of elderly every year), adenovirus outbreak (man my entire family came down with that one when the kids were in day care....2 days into a family reunion trip to Hawaii....almost everyone in the family including uncles and aunts came down with it....digestive problems, fever, conjunctivitis, ear infections...fortunately at the time there weren't any severely elderly in our family and there are only a handful of children in the family [which interestingly none but mine came down with it]), measles, never?
p.s. my parents also never came down with it...we believe probably because they were exposed to the adenovirus when younger, since they both worked in hospital, including military hospital, settings for so long. But the rest of us middle agers, including the pediatrician....man oh man that was awful.
 
Oh but the positive couple have been definitely put in an isolation cabin according to the Times reporter from this am. She doesn't say for how long.
What? Wait? They only quarantined the infected people? How does that work? Is this some new technique? Why wouldn't they quarantine the healthy people?
 
It may never be zero (at least not for years). We can’t even get polio to zero and have had periodic measles outbreaks (despite having a very good vaccine against a very stable virus). As I mentioned before rsv kills hundreds of children and thousands of elderly each year and we don’t go into a panic over rsv shutting down the day cares to prevent the elderly from dying...if anything we encourage kids to get it early so their immune systems become primed against it since complications tend to occur in infants and more grown children. And we know the coronavirus is mutating...life tends to find a way...and the delta variant is pretty close to breaking through...a few more years of this we will eventually get a cases (but not necessarily deaths) breakthrough. And we suspect if they did do enhancements to the virus that it may be primed to do exactly that: adapt to humans until it achieved an ultimate outcome (which for viruses means survival And replication....not necessarily killing the hosts)
Polio? So far, most of team virus seems more concerned with helping ‘rona than with helping polio.

If we ever get a subgroup of people who refuse the polio vaccine and insist on dumping raw sewage into the bay near oyster fisheries, I will object to that, too.

Perhaps hound will step up to defend their “freedom”.
 
Bayesian statistics provides the logical basis for stereotyping.

It lets you take one direction of data (percent of group X with behavior Y) and flip it. (probability that specific act Y was the result of something from group X)

It’s completely mathematically valid. If you apply it to an assembly line, it tells you that the widget from group X might be defective, and need to be replaced.

No problem so far. Now replace the word “assembly line” with “neighborhood” and “widget” with “person”. Ugly. Who wants to live in that kind of world?

Bayesian analysis may show you the likelihood of failure of widgets from assembly line X, but it won't show you which ones will fail.
 
Polio? So far, most of team virus seems more concerned with helping ‘rona than with helping polio.

If we ever get a subgroup of people who refuse the polio vaccine and insist on dumping raw sewage into the bay near oyster fisheries, I will object to that, too.
...becaus
Perhaps hound will step up to defend their “freedom”.

We do get a subgroup that refuses the polio vaccine. It's how we got the California measles outbreak a few years back...because of parents refusing the vaccines for their kids....so you are going with ducking the uncomfortable question you don't want to think about?
 
What? Wait? They only quarantined the infected people? How does that work? Is this some new technique? Why wouldn't they quarantine the healthy people?
The new technique is called contact tracing with mandatory testing.

Contact tracing a boat is easier than contact tracing a city. And, as part of their ticket purchase, the passengers agree to be tested. No test, no ticket.

If you want to give up enough freedom to allow real contact tracing in your city, complete with mandatory testing, then cities can do this, too. Think Seoul.

If you don’t like the idea of mandatory contact tracing with mandatory testing, then maybe this idea isn’t for you.
 
What? Wait? They only quarantined the infected people? How does that work? Is this some new technique? Why wouldn't they quarantine the healthy people?

They have been vaccinated, they show no symptoms, and they have not been pinged by a test.

While doing G's homework for her, I found more than one news article that stated that the reason passengers were tested at all is that it was required by the cruise's final destination island/country. There are so many different versions of the story out there that it is hard to know what the true details are.
 
They did test everyone before boarding. Yet 2 people during the cruise came out positive. Not sure why. I think it may be because they rapid tested people before boarding and then tested them on board afterwards. It's very confusing, but the way they did it at least clearly didn't work because now not only the couple but several others have to quarantine on a completely vaccinated ship.

They only tested those who could not show a vaccine card, according to the news articles you didn't read.
 
My bad, we will ask our customers for proof of their polio vaccines, along with MMR etc. We're going to be real sticklers for HPV vaccine.
I would bet most international travel does require the MMR shot. You would not want a measles or rubella outbreak onboard a cruise ship.

They absolutely would require it if the US had 10,000 rubella cases per day.
 
They have been vaccinated, they show no symptoms, and they have not been pinged by a test.

While doing G's homework for her, I found more than one news article that stated that the reason passengers were tested at all is that it was required by the cruise's final destination island/country. There are so many different versions of the story out there that it is hard to know what the true details are.

i have less time (and interest) than you to read through umpteen different articles on the subject (I am doing like 4 things simultaneously right now)....but I agree the reporting has been confusing and required testing for a destination would make sense for why this weird situation (where the passengers were tested before boarding) would pop up.
 
They only tested those who could not show a vaccine card, according to the news articles you didn't read.

that's even more funny then. The fully vaxxed cruise was on the honors system. :) That is good info....no wonder the cruise company isn't advertising that little fact on their fully vaxxed cruise. Actual useful info for a change from the espola.
 
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