2007 West Showcase (11/1 and 11/2): Predicts and Commentary

Kante

Kante

PREMIER
All,
See below for predicts and matches to watch. Did some experimentation to adjust for the differences in relative group quality based on how groups did in previous showcases, so will see how it takes. Given the 50 minute games (vs 70 minutes), adjusted "goals scored" and "goals allowed" both down by about 25%, per previous showcases. Re: Crossfire Premier and Portland Timbers matches, leveraged the youthsocceranking for xfire data but data isn't available for Portland Timbers, so had to go with "n/a" for the Portland Timbers games. Sorry about that.

Last item (and then the predicts are below). Games are list by team in alpha order. The TopDrawer Oct rankings referenced can be found here - https://www.topdrawersoccer.com/club-soccer/club-soccer-team-rankings/men/u13/1/1076. FYI, there's a couple of Norcal teams who don't typically rate - the Breakers and the Mustangs - who look like they might surprise. So, be aware... Good luck SoCal!

Last last item. There's a consolidated list of matches to watch w/ the best matches listed for each game start time for both days at the end of the attached docs. Enjoy.

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Here's best matches to watch:

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for the teams playing the Breakers, their #9 is averaging 1.5 goals per match and their #12 is averaging .7 goals per match. Combined, the two players account for more than half of the Breakers' goals this season. Notable results for the Breakers were 0-1 loss to the Sac Republic, a 3-2 win over TDS #25 ranked SD Glens, and a 3-3 tie against TDS #24 ranked Placer.

for the teams playing the Mustangs, both their #77 and their #33 are averaging about one goal per game apiece, and, together, account for almost 2/3's of the Mustangs goals this year. Notable results include a 1-2 loss to TDS #3 ranked SJ Quakes and a 4-3 win over the Sac Republic.
 
Had some revision/corrections to the predicts. Please use this set of data. Apologies for the revision. Most teams had at least one game predict changed a bit. Matches to watch - with the expected best match called out for each time slot - are at the end of the post.

Good luck this weekend!

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Have received some questions about De Anza. Here's the quick scoop:

1) De Anza has been giving the business to the Norcal group, averaging a 6-0 scoreline over their first seven matches. However, they've also benefitted from a relatively soft schedule and haven't played Sac, SJ, or even the Breakers or Mustangs.

2) They've got eight players who are averaging at least one goal every two games. Their leading scorer - #8 has ten goals in seven matches - but this is less than 20% of De Anza's total goals scored. Typically, when a team has this many players scoring, it means that they move the ball well.

3) They're relatively young, with only three of 18 players born in Jan thru Mar but haven't seen video so can't speak their relative size.

4) They tend to score relatively evenly over the course of the game but the two goals they have surrendered cam fairly close to after the 2nd half had started.
 
Rematch between LAFC and CO Rapids I think would be a game to watch, didn’t Rapids beat them at Generation last year? Also SD Surf beat Rapids in June at Super Copa. Another good rematch.
 
KR16 said:
Rematch between LAFC and CO Rapids I think would be a game to watch, didn’t Rapids beat them at Generation last year? Also SD Surf beat Rapids in June at Super Copa. Another good rematch.
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interesting point. may not be giving CO Rapids enough credit. be interesting to see how they do.
 
watfly said:
Go to boys schedule on ussoccerda.com and filter on u13 and today's date.

Takeaway from today is that LAFC looks like men among boys. Amazing team.
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Here's how the high level on the groups did today from what's been reported by USSDA.

GroupsPts per GameAverage Goal Differential per GameAverage Goals Scored per GameAverage Goals Allowed per GameWinsDrawsLosses
LA1.961.302.090.781364
Colorado1.36-0.291.001.29545
San Diego1.17-0.091.091.178312
Northwest0.86-1.070.891.965914

Here's the how the teams did today from what's been reported by USSDA. Groups and Teams are ordered by performance. USSDA scheduled games to have like teams play like teams, so results below do not necessarily mean that Ventura Fusion, for example, are better than TFA.

There's a handful of games that included below where the score hasn't been reported (which is why some teams only have one game recorded) and Real Colorado played four games today, and Legends and FCG played three games, for some reason.

USSDA Reported Results from 11/1:

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KR16 said:
Rematch between LAFC and CO Rapids I think would be a game to watch, didn’t Rapids beat them at Generation last year? Also SD Surf beat Rapids in June at Super Copa. Another good rematch.
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So far, CO Rapids are 0-2 with an 0-3 loss to De Anza and a 1-2 loss to the Portland Timbers. no knock on the Rapids, but u12 9v9 on a half field is a very different game than 11v11 on a full field.

Looking at results from yesterday, the match that should have been - but wasn't - scheduled is LAFC vs Real Salt Lake. Hindsight is 20/20 but having RSL play De Anza or the Pats instead of LAFC seems like a missed opportunity.

RSL beat De Anza 4-0. be interesting to see the LAFC vs De Anza result from later this morning...
 
Here's how the teams and groups did for the weekend from what's been reported by USSDA.

Both LA and SD showed well over the two days. All said, LA Team outscored their opponents 101 to 38 while SD teams outscored their opponents 70 to 58.

As an fyi, USSDA scheduled showcase games to have like teams play like teams, so results below do not necessarily mean that one team that went undefeated is better than another team that split games.

Also, there's a handful of games that included below where the score hasn't been reported (which is why some teams only have three games listed) and Real Colorado played six games, and Legends and FCG played five games, for some reason.

USSDA Reported Results from 11/1 and 11/2:

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