Bad News Thread

Your turn.
- York in Portland
- You already mentioned Columbus (an indirect admission of your hypocrisy )
- Robert E Lee (love or hate it is part of our countries history)
- Juan de Onate
- Francis Scott Key
 
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LA County just installed a mandatory indoor mask mandate that goes into effect Saturday. I'll be shopping across the county line in Ventura from now on because I have no desire to partake in the stupidity, but it's only a matter of time, as dad4 predicted, that it will happen in other counties if not the whole state. They cite the "alarming rise in cases" to justify it. Is alarming the same thing as panicky?

In any case, if LA County is already back at masks who here wants to take bets they won't end with that? It took 2 weeks to go from recommend to mandatory and the curve will continue to increase. What's next?
 
You mean the thing that isn’t actually happening? Lol! You people believe the craziest stuff. When does JFK jr reappear?
But more to the point of your fallacious post

The history of crime and violence among blacks contradicts many widespread beliefs about the causes of that crime and violence. Poverty, unemployment, and racial discrimination are frequently listed among the prime "root causes" of riots and other criminality among blacks. Many are so convinced of this that they see no reason to examine the factual historical record.

Crime among black Americans, like crime among white Americans, was declining for years prior to the decade of the 1960s, with its landmark civil rights laws and its "war on poverty" programs.
But it was during the 1960s that crime rates began skyrocketing among both blacks and whites, and it was precisely after the historic civil rights laws were passed that blacks began rioting in cities across the country. Within days of the passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, the first of hundreds of riots that would rack cities across the country over the next four years began in the black neighborhood of Los Angeles known as Watts. These riots did not begin where blacks were poorest or most oppressed, which was still the South. Indeed, Southern cities seldom suffered the riots that struck many Northern cities and devastated many black neighborhoods in those cities. Thirty-four people died in the Watts riots but 43 were killed when blacks rioted in Detroit two years later.

Although Detroit had the worst of the riots that struck virtually every Northern city during the latter part of the 1960s, the poverty rate among Detroit's black population was only half of that of blacks nationwide, its homeownership rate among blacks was the highest in the country, and its unemployment rate was 3.4 percent— lower than that among whites nationwide. Detroit did not have a massive riot because it was an economic disaster area. It became an economic disaster area after the riots, as did black neighborhoods in many other cities across the country. Moreover, riot-torn neighborhoods in these cities remained disaster areas for decades thereafter, as businesses became reluctant to locate there, reducing access to both jobs and places to shop, and both black and white middle class people left for the suburbs.

Whatever the causes of these waves of riots, whether as background factors or as immediate precipitating incidents, they were clearly not the factors that have been repeated endlessly but fallaciously. The worse ghetto riots occurred precisely at those times and places where the things that were supposed to prevent riots were most prevalent, including officials promoting welfare state policies and restraining the police. Conversely, riots were least destructive, and sometimes non-existent, in places and times where officials took an opposite view.
As already noted, Southern cities were far less often struck by urban riots. Among Northern cities, Chicago was one of the cities least affected by ghetto riots. It had no such riots in 1967. The following year, when riots swept across the country in the wake of the assassination of Martin Luther King, Chicago's Mayor Richard J. Daley issued a highly publicized "shoot to kill" order to his police that was denounced by many, but deaths from riots in Chicago were a fraction of what they were in cities like Detroit where more humane and sympathetic expressions were used and the police were restrained. Nationally, the most urban ghetto riots occurred during the Johnson administration but there was not one major urban riot during the entire eight years of the Reagan administration. Yet such hard facts did not make a dent in fashionable beliefs, then or now. Both politicians and activists have a vested interest in racial fallacies, which attribute the advancement of blacks to politicians and activists, and blame others for the retrogressions.
 
LA County just installed a mandatory indoor mask mandate that goes into effect Saturday. I'll be shopping across the county line in Ventura from now on because I have no desire to partake in the stupidity, but it's only a matter of time, as dad4 predicted, that it will happen in other counties if not the whole state. They cite the "alarming rise in cases" to justify it. Is alarming the same thing as panicky?

In any case, if LA County is already back at masks who here wants to take bets they won't end with that? It took 2 weeks to go from recommend to mandatory and the curve will continue to increase. What's next?
Take a look at hospitalizations before you go off on how stupid you think it is.

Deaths and hospitalizations are decoupled from cases, but only for the vaccinated. LA still has enough unvaccinated adults to cause a significant spike in deaths.

For scale, we currently have about 280 deaths per day from covid. That represents about 2% of the daily confirmed case rate from 2-4 weeks ago. (Deaths are a lagging indicator, so compare to past case rates.)

The US also has around 20,000 people hospitalized. That is about twice the daily confirmed case rate from 2 weeks ago.

LA is currently averaging 1000 confirmed cases. Using those ratios, that translates to around 20 deaths per day and around 2000 hospitalizations. (Not now. In about 2-4 weeks.)

LA is also doubling every 10 days or so. Keep it up, and you’ll be at 8,000 daily confirmed cases in 6 weeks. And, a few weeks later, 16,000 hospitalized and 160 deaths per day. That’s about twice as many beds as LA currently has available.

Perhaps your health department doesn’t want to keep on that path. It sounds unpleasant.

You might want to get your Ventura shopping trip out of the way now. Their vax rate is about the same as LA, and they are doubling every 12 days. Call it 3-4 weeks behind LA.
 
Take a look at hospitalizations before you go off on how stupid you think it is.

Deaths and hospitalizations are decoupled from cases, but only for the vaccinated. LA still has enough unvaccinated adults to cause a significant spike in deaths.

For scale, we currently have about 280 deaths per day from covid. That represents about 2% of the daily confirmed case rate from 2-4 weeks ago. (Deaths are a lagging indicator, so compare to past case rates.)

The US also has around 20,000 people hospitalized. That is about twice the daily confirmed case rate from 2 weeks ago.

LA is currently averaging 1000 confirmed cases. Using those ratios, that translates to around 20 deaths per day and around 2000 hospitalizations. (Not now. In about 2-4 weeks.)

LA is also doubling every 10 days or so. Keep it up, and you’ll be at 8,000 daily confirmed cases in 6 weeks. And, a few weeks later, 16,000 hospitalized and 160 deaths per day. That’s about twice as many beds as LA currently has available.

Perhaps your health department doesn’t want to keep on that path. It sounds unpleasant.

You might want to get your Ventura shopping trip out of the way now. Their vax rate is about the same as LA, and they are doubling every 12 days. Call it 3-4 weeks behind LA.
A. Vc didn’t install a mask mandate until the state did and then only did it kicking and screaming. Same when they did it for kids and schools getting waivers.
B. The unvaccinated have had ample opportunity to get vaccinated. I should not be inconvenienced for their recklessness
C. The masks didn’t stop the winter wave. You yourself have conceded that (assuming arguendo now) masks stopped the initial waves in Asia that they aren’t as effective as they once were hence the problems in India, Taiwan, Korea, Japan and Thailand.
D. So in 2 weeks the curve will still be up and la county will be back at the well.
E. If they shut down indoor dining again you’ll be the first to say it’s necessary claiming the data now supports it
F. I’ll be the first to then say “told you so that it was the way it would play out”
G. The restrictions imho should be reserved only for places and times when the icus are new capacity and hospitals are near collapse (which so far has really only happened in the 3rd world but I could see places like Alabama getting there)
F. You’re all going to get it or at a minimum be exposed to it and asymptomatic. It’s inevitable. This is just postponing the inevitable
G. Seroprevalence in la pre vaccine take off was just under 50%….discount to 40% if you like for selection bias. See article above re natural immunity.
 
A. Vc didn’t install a mask mandate until the state did and then only did it kicking and screaming. Same when they did it for kids and schools getting waivers.
B. The unvaccinated have had ample opportunity to get vaccinated. I should not be inconvenienced for their recklessness
C. The masks didn’t stop the winter wave. You yourself have conceded that (assuming arguendo now) masks stopped the initial waves in Asia that they aren’t as effective as they once were hence the problems in India, Taiwan, Korea, Japan and Thailand.
D. So in 2 weeks the curve will still be up and la county will be back at the well.
E. If they shut down indoor dining again you’ll be the first to say it’s necessary claiming the data now supports it
F. I’ll be the first to then say “told you so that it was the way it would play out”
G. The restrictions imho should be reserved only for places and times when the icus are new capacity and hospitals are near collapse (which so far has really only happened in the 3rd world but I could see places like Alabama getting there)
F. You’re all going to get it or at a minimum be exposed to it and asymptomatic. It’s inevitable. This is just postponing the inevitable
G. Seroprevalence in la pre vaccine take off was just under 50%….discount to 40% if you like for selection bias. See article above re natural immunity.
Pretty much. You will fight tooth and nail to block the minor inconveniences, like masks or vaccine passports. Then you’ll complain like heck if/when the resulting surge triggers major inconveniences, like business and school closures.

It’s the same as last time. But there are fewer people left unvaccinated, so it will be smaller. We also might get lucky and see a vaccination surge following the hospitalization surge. Or not. I am watching MS/AR/MO vax rates to try to predict that one.
 
Pretty much. You will fight tooth and nail to block the minor inconveniences, like masks or vaccine passports. Then you’ll complain like heck if/when the resulting surge triggers major inconveniences, like business and school closures.

It’s the same as last time. But there are fewer people left unvaccinated, so it will be smaller. We also might get lucky and see a vaccination surge following the hospitalization surge. Or not. I am watching MS/AR/MO vax rates to try to predict that one.
No I’ll complain like heck because masks didn’t do very much to begin with and you have even conceded they are now less effective against the delta so they’ll do even less. Then you’ll be back at the well citing new data which I will laugh and say was always inevitable the moment you contemplated going down the restrictions road because it’s never going to be enough.
 
I already gave you the first line. You responded by calling me names, dulling my enthusiasm to proceed further.

I don't have the inclination or the time right now to condense more than 5 centuries of European history into a single paragraph. I'll have more time next week (catsitting for my daughter (I hope she has A/C))
Is cat sitting a thing? It’s more like VRBO.
 
Eh you are already seeing a variation of the BS moving into education.

A number of districts are teaching math...using equity, talking about how parts of it are racist, etc.

Some school district around the SF area is utilizing that concept. Same thing popping up around Portland and Seattle.

It is misguided, it hurts educational outcomes and it is spreading.

"Hurts educational outcomes" sounds interesting. Do you have some data?
 
Take a look at hospitalizations before you go off on how stupid you think it is.

Deaths and hospitalizations are decoupled from cases, but only for the vaccinated. LA still has enough unvaccinated adults to cause a significant spike in deaths.

For scale, we currently have about 280 deaths per day from covid. That represents about 2% of the daily confirmed case rate from 2-4 weeks ago. (Deaths are a lagging indicator, so compare to past case rates.)

The US also has around 20,000 people hospitalized. That is about twice the daily confirmed case rate from 2 weeks ago.

LA is currently averaging 1000 confirmed cases. Using those ratios, that translates to around 20 deaths per day and around 2000 hospitalizations. (Not now. In about 2-4 weeks.)

LA is also doubling every 10 days or so. Keep it up, and you’ll be at 8,000 daily confirmed cases in 6 weeks. And, a few weeks later, 16,000 hospitalized and 160 deaths per day. That’s about twice as many beds as LA currently has available.

Perhaps your health department doesn’t want to keep on that path. It sounds unpleasant.

You might want to get your Ventura shopping trip out of the way now. Their vax rate is about the same as LA, and they are doubling every 12 days. Call it 3-4 weeks behind LA.
Ps. La co is now just over 60% fully vaxxed and just under 70% partially vaxxed plus somewhere in the neighborhood of 40–50% natural immunity.
 
- York in Portland
- You already mentioned Columbus (an indirect admission of your hypocrisy )
- Robert E Lee (love or hate it is part of our countries history)
- Juan de Onate
- Francis Scott Key
Hypocrisy? Are you putting something on me that you are assuming? I simply asked which historic statues and what made them historic.
 
Is cat sitting a thing? It’s more like VRBO.

I've done it before, and one of her cats used to be mine (as much as any cat can belong to a human).

The first part of VRBO is Vacation, and Sacramento is not my idea of a vacation paradise.

On the drive today I was feeling good about the light traffic (except south of Corona) until I got close to Santa Barbara. I moved to Oxnard in 1970 and I have traveled that stretch many times over the years,. After 50 years, it is still under construction.
 
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