we're back... whew... it's been a bit.
the Kante algorithm is probably a little creaky, a little stiff etc. etc. but once it stretched out, it seems not to be worse for wear.
for those who aren't familiar, and asking "wtf is this?!?!?", we used to post game predicts every week for several age groups, mostly on the boy’s side. the goal was to apply some objective criteria to help families measure progress not by wins and losses but by how did their kids do relative to historical expectations.
if team A is playing team B, and team A is good and team B is not, winning is kind of meaningless. team A is expected to win.
instead, the algorithm predicts, based on historical data, that team A will score for example, four goals and that team B will be held scoreless.
if team B then either scores a goal or holds team A to three goals, that then is progress for team B relative to how team B has done in the past, and progress is good.
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some caveats. the algorithm usually takes about ten games before it’s as accurate as it will get. So far, we have about six games for most ECNL 05/04 teams. You can do the math.
typically, after ten games, the algorithm will be accurate for goals scored by the home team about 75% of the time, and accurate for goals scored by the away team about 65% of the time.
so, the algo is not perfect (alas, since EPL allows betting…) and can be a little temperamental, but it’s often close enough to make things interesting.
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speaking of interesting. Two items.
hearing back from parents in the comments section about how the games went after the fact also makes it interesting. So, the more feedback and commentary the better.
also, and maybe this will be interesting and maybe not. we – there's three of us- are working on a website/service that will provide some of the value that youthsoccerankings.us used to, guidance for college recruiting and some other things.
please go check us out at
www.analytics.soccer. We’d appreciate your comments and feedback. It’s a work in progress, so a little messy, but we have some big ambitions (as you’ll see) and the more feedback we get, the better.
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without further ado/verbosity, here’s predicts. First team listed is the home team.
Our Bring the Popcorn Match
(i.e., so competitive that you should bring the popcorn)
Sunday, 10/30: SDSC Surf vs LAFC SoCal => Predict: 1-2 LAFC SoCal winner
Our Play the Kids! Match
(i.e., match is not expected to competitive, thus expected winner should play its younger players up, no disrespect to other team. just is what it is…)
Sunday, 10/30: West Coast FC vs San Diego Surf => Predict: 0-4 SD Surf winner
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Saturday, 10/29
Legends vs SDSC Surf => 1-2 SDSC Surf winner
Sporting CA vs. Slammers => 3-2 Sporting CA winner
Pats vs LA Breakers =>1-0 Pats winner
SD Surf vs Heat FC => 3-2 SD Surf winner
Del Mar vs LAFC SoCal => 1-2 LAFC SoCal winner
Sunday, 10/30
LA Breakers vs Slammers => 1-1 Tie
Beach FC vs Pats => 1-3 Pats winner
Del Mar vs Heat => 2-2 Tie
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Good luck this weekend! (it’s nice to be back…)