What if we infected ages 2-17, they get better, they get immunity, they stop being carriers, they go back to school and back to sports?

Grace T.

PREMIER
Can you name any country that had a mask mandate in June and had bad case numbers in July? (Worse than AZ)

If no, then maybe masks work better than you admit.


Don't know if per capita they are as bad as Arizona, but the Philipines despite a rigorous mask mandate have had a bad outbreak. About 2000 cases per day in July. The Philippines also had had a huge testing debacle so the number of cases is being undercounted. Also Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have also had outbreaks despite mask ordinances. Like I said...I think masks help...I don't think they help that much...saw one German piece this morning about a factory outbreak (despite mask usage there). Also saw a piece out of Italy (in Italian) that one of the main effects of mask might be to encourage distancing by being a symbol the person actually believes in distancing...though it was mostly speculation.

Hope y'all have got your goggles and faceshields. Fauci says we need goggles and faceshields.
 

dad4

PREMIER
Don't know if per capita they are as bad as Arizona, but the Philipines despite a rigorous mask mandate have had a bad outbreak. About 2000 cases per day in July. The Philippines also had had a huge testing debacle so the number of cases is being undercounted. Also Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have also had outbreaks despite mask ordinances. Like I said...I think masks help...I don't think they help that much...saw one German piece this morning about a factory outbreak (despite mask usage there). Also saw a piece out of Italy (in Italian) that one of the main effects of mask might be to encourage distancing by being a symbol the person actually believes in distancing...though it was mostly speculation.

Hope y'all have got your goggles and faceshields. Fauci says we need goggles and faceshields.
Japan? Philippines? Hong Kong?

Run the numbers, Grace. Japan has had fewer cases per capita in six months than Arizona has in one day. Six months of Hong Kong cases are about equal to one Arizona day.

Phillippines have it worse. Their six month total is about 3 days of Arizona.

In general, the mask mandate Asian counties have a total number of cases similar to a few days of a mask-free US state.

Of all the countries in the world which required masks for all of June, not one of them had a bad July.
 

Desert Hound

PREMIER
AZ has had far more July cases per capita than California.

Try again.

Name a country that had a mask mandate in all of June, but had worse July cases than Arizona. (Per capita, of course.)
Well I was curious as to why cases would jump so much in CA if you guys had a mask mandate on for some time?
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Japan? Philippines? Hong Kong?

Run the numbers, Grace. Japan has had fewer cases per capita in six months than Arizona has in one day. Six months of Hong Kong cases are about equal to one Arizona day.

Phillippines have it worse. Their six month total is about 3 days of Arizona.

In general, the mask mandate Asian counties have a total number of cases similar to a few days of a mask-free US state.

Of all the countries in the world which required masks for all of June, not one of them had a bad July.

Well, again not arguing that they are worse than Arizona. Have not run the per capita numbers. But to call the Philippines not bad is overreach...the situation in the Philippines is bad enough they are reimposing lockdowns...and they aren't catching everyone on their daily tests because they are very limited. Like I said I think they help. But the people who say if only y'all would wear your masks kids would be back in school and things would be back to normal are being misleading....things aren't even close to back to normal in the Asian mask countries.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
It's interesting too that the curves in FL, AZ and TX are trending downward, but California (which has taken the most vigorous enforcement measures such as suspending youth sports and masks) are bending more slowly (in part because of San Fran and the Bay Area).

O.k. people I'm beginning to lean that my 15-20% break guess is WRONG, at least in part. I still think the new info on t-cell immunity shows there's a break which slows things down short of herd immunity, but the recent numbers are really pointing to seasonality. It may be that Sweden is still in for another world of hurt (but if so, Norway and Finland are going to get really zapped in the winter as things change as well).
 

dad4

PREMIER
Well I was curious as to why cases would jump so much in CA if you guys had a mask mandate on for some time?
The CA mask mandate is half hearted. We announce a statewide rule, and within a day Sacramento announces they won't enforce it.

It is why Newsom went with the watchlist. If counties won't enforce the rules, their numbers get bad and their businesses get shut down. Punitive.
 
Well I was curious as to why cases would jump so much in CA if you guys had a mask mandate on for some time?
Like I said I think they help. But the people who say if only y'all would wear your masks kids would be back in school and things would be back to normal are being misleading....things aren't even close to back to normal in the Asian mask countries.
It's interesting too that the curves in FL, AZ and TX are trending downward, but California (which has taken the most vigorous enforcement measures such as suspending youth sports and masks) are bending more slowly (in part because of San Fran and the Bay Area).

O.k. people I'm beginning to lean that my 15-20% break guess is WRONG, at least in part. I still think the new info on t-cell immunity shows there's a break which slows things down short of herd immunity, but the recent numbers are really pointing to seasonality. It may be that Sweden is still in for another world of hurt (but if so, Norway and Finland are going to get really zapped in the winter as things change as well).
Yeah, it's never really one thing - not that any of us are arguing that it is. I don't think masks alone will spare any US region (we are who we are, we aren't Germany, etc.) unless it is also accompanied with social distancing AND good "luck" with seasonality. Even then, it might not be enough due to those who don't mask and distance and the lack of people in the region with immunity. I feel like that is what is happening in Santa Clara County. Everything I see indicates people adhering to mask and distancing, but our numbers are on the rise again. Short of closing up tighter, I don't know how we stop the increase. SC county never opened bars - nails salons, barber shops, etc. were open for two days and shut back down on July 15th. We have some immunity as there were cases here very early, but evidently not enough to support our current level of activity without a rise in cases. Sucks.

As Grace states, the one thing that does concern me is seasonality and how that will affect R. There are many regions of the US that have minimal immunity as they haven't seen much of the virus yet. Just hoping seasonality isn't significant.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
The CA mask mandate is half hearted. We announce a statewide rule, and within a day Sacramento announces they won't enforce it.

It is why Newsom went with the watchlist. If counties won't enforce the rules, their numbers get bad and their businesses get shut down. Punitive.
Well here's an incident showing how much of the mask thing really is security blanket/virtue signaling. This is Canada. The guy losing it is wearing his mask improperly

 

dad4

PREMIER
Well here's an incident showing how much of the mask thing really is security blanket/virtue signaling. This is Canada. The guy losing it is wearing his mask improperly

There is at least one jerk in Toronto. This one happens to care about masks.

Are you saying this proves something?

Perhaps the jerk from Toronto also like anchovies. Does that prove that anchovies are bad?
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
There is at least one jerk in Toronto. This one happens to care about masks.

Are you saying this proves something?

Perhaps the jerk from Toronto also like anchovies. Does that prove that anchovies are bad?
Proves nothing. But like the guy in the empty field with the mask on, it is an example that for some people greater than 0 the mask thing is less about being actually safe and more about feeling safe.

I'm really curious now if given what Fauci says we'll start to see goggles and face shields out there.
 

dad4

PREMIER
Proves nothing. But like the guy in the empty field with the mask on, it is an example that for some people greater than 0 the mask thing is less about being actually safe and more about feeling safe.

I'm really curious now if given what Fauci says we'll start to see goggles and face shields out there.
Probably not on the face shields. But maybe. I cant really think of a logical argument against them.

I grew up using a belt sander with no mask or eye protection. Now I use both. Times change and we change with them.

One thing we are learning is that the elderly Chinese women were right about masks all along, and the rest of us were wrong.

Not that masks are going to solve it by themselves. But we are better off with them than without.
 

tjinaz

SILVER ELITE
What gets me is this...

If they can figure out how to keep a grocery store checkout clerk safe and there are thousands of them out there doing their jobs how is it they can't do that for teachers? Especially when they mostly encounter the lowest risk group and the same ones over and over not the randoms that go through a store?
 

Copa9

GOLD
Well, again not arguing that they are worse than Arizona. Have not run the per capita numbers. But to call the Philippines not bad is overreach...the situation in the Philippines is bad enough they are reimposing lockdowns...and they aren't catching everyone on their daily tests because they are very limited. Like I said I think they help. But the people who say if only y'all would wear your masks kids would be back in school and things would be back to normal are being misleading....things aren't even close to back to normal in the Asian mask countries.
Good news, as of last Monday, Germany and France and "zero" new cases and Canada only had about 260 cases. Let's hope that continues and/or at least very low numbers.
 

Copa9

GOLD
Probably not on the face shields. But maybe. I cant really think of a logical argument against them.

I grew up using a belt sander with no mask or eye protection. Now I use both. Times change and we change with them.

One thing we are learning is that the elderly Chinese women were right about masks all along, and the rest of us were wrong.

Not that masks are going to solve it by themselves. But we are better off with them than without.
The virus "likes" mucous membranes, wear one or not.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Good news, as of last Monday, Germany and France and "zero" new cases and Canada only had about 260 cases. Let's hope that continues and/or at least very low numbers.
Germany and France have less robust mask compliance than we do in SoCal and the US (I saw a survey on it just 2 days ago...maybe NYT)....Berlin just had a mass demonstration against lockdown restrictions The current lockdown restrictions in Germany are not as robust as what has been done in Los Angeles such as the limit on mass gatherings including homes.

The true test of whether lockdowns work is underway in Australia. Scary stuff going on there. We'll see if it's worth it.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Numbers are back up and rising. That didn't take long.
The French numbers were due to a testing glich (their testing isn't as advanced as ours and is experiencing some backlog). Don't know about Germany but in perspective to their first outbreak it doesn't seem too bad. Belgium and the Neatherlands are having a similar bump despite having a very bad initial outbreak. All these point to seasonality being very big since our outbreak is moving north as well (towards NorCal, Appalachia, the Carolinas).

The counter is Spain. Around Madrid they achieved 20% seroprevalence and the current outbreak isn't very bad there. The current outbreak seems to be centered around Barcelona and Catalonia which have anywhere from .5-8% seroprevalence. The same thing is happening in Spain as happened in the US (the northeastern numbers are stable, but Fl, TX, AZ, SoCal which didn't have a very bad initial outbreak got hit later after lockdowns removed).

The pattern in Europe in the coming weeks will tell us if there's a break somewhere around 20% which slows the thing (in which case these new bumps shouldn't be too bad and should slow again in a month or 2) or if it's all seasonality (in which case everywhere can expected a 2nd wave including Sweden) or if it's both.

The French in particular have been very bad with mask wearing and are very reluctant to lockdown a 2nd time and have stated elementary schools will be open come hell or high water.
 
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