The Inevitable Socal Soccer and Coronavirus Thread

Grace T.

PREMIER
So with Japan closing schools, US colleges cutting study abroad and making plans to bring kids home, and the first community circulating case in California, do you guys think Socal Soccer is going to be disrupted. If anyone is going to MIC or other international tours or tournaments, are you still going? Do you think we'll have a spring season? Will the tournament schedule for summer be disrupted? Even if a portion of referees decide what we pay them isn't enough to handle the games, will there be referee shortages? Will teams that are undergoing tryouts now be able to form and practice in time for the fall season? Will summer camps suffer from people being scared to register? Are you worried, are you not?

My own two cents gut thinking is that we'll have at least regional school closures in the US by spring break, and schools may not reopen until summer (the authorities are pinning their hopes apparently on the warmer summer weather slowing this down until clinical trials of treatments are completed in April and May). Since Los Angeles is on the front line of entry points from Korea, Singapore and Japan, there's a possibility of LA being one of the cities hit.

NOTE: THIS IS NOT INTENDED TO BE A THREAD TO DISCUSS CONSPIRACY THEORIES, THE POLITICS BEHIND THE SITUATION, OR OTHER OFF TOPIC SUBJECTS. IT'S INTENDED TO TRACK HOW THINGS MIGHT IMPACT THE SOCCER COMMUNITY AND TO SPECULATE ON HOW IT'S IMPACTED GOING FORWARD.
 

blam

SILVER ELITE
H1n1 in 2009 caused more than 200000 deaths. 1in 4 ended up being infected by it. Many don't even know.

SARs infected even less and killed only people in the hundreds. But many people were paranoid by it.

Covid19 is more lethal than SARs but nowhere bear 2009 h1n1 yet.

I don't remember I did anything different in 2009 due to h1n1.

I'm no where near panicky yet. Should I?
 
Coronavirus might be s spreading--but the flu is a greater threat to Americans

US Flu Cases Climb to 15 Million

Use normal methods to prevent Influenza and should be fine. Wash those hands with soap & water, use hot water on your dishs, clean all surfaces,, Teach your child to cough or sneeze into a tissue or his arm. Throw used tissues in the trash., etc,.

If you travel into certain areas additional precautions may be warranted.
 

Ansu Fati

SILVER
Since this is a fluid situation, I don't think anyone really knows how quickly things will evolve and what the full impact will be at this time. So to answer all your questions about possible scenarios, maybe yes, maybe no. But as the CDC recently stated, it's probably not a question of if, but when outbreaks will happen here in the US.

Good news is that based on available information, most cases are mild. Children seem to be less vulnerable. It is not as lethal as SARS, MERS, or bird flu (H5N1) from a death rate perspective. Right now, confirmed cases in US is very low and impact is much much less than regular flu. Evaluations underway for possible first line antiviral drug treatments.

Not so good news: It looks to be highly contagious like the flu and a pandemic seems inevitable, and looks to be more lethal than the regular flu or swine flu H1N1 2009 (2-3%, vs 0.1% vs 0.01-0.1%). Elderly and people with other significant health problems are at more risk for complications, death. No effective treatment other than support care so far. The earliest a vaccine might be available is around a year away. Possibility of mutation making it more lethal is always out there.

On the latest NYT Daily podcast, they talk about one possible outcome being similar to the Spanish flu of 1918 which had a death rate just below 2% but was global so overall death toll was high; it broke out early in the year, had a lull over spring/summer, then came back with a vengeance later in the year. Then again we may find an effective antiviral treatment and it may not be that bad after all.

The alarm bells being sounded are not meant to put people into a panic, but to inform and prepare the public for the possibility of disruptions that may impact significant parts around the country. And this may very well include impacts to the soccer community. I certainly am hoping for the best, but at least mentally preparing for things. If this becomes an epidemic state side, canceled soccer tournaments, camps, and seasons will be a secondary concern to me.

Practice and encourage frequent hand washing. Don't touch your face (much hard than you think). Get a flu shot. If you or a loved one gets sick with flu like symptoms stay home and seek medical attention. And stay up to date with reputable sources.
 

Speed

SILVER ELITE
Maybe we skip the handshakes after the game and just walk past players and tell them “good game”.
At church last night for Ash Wednesday services, I did knuckle bumps when wishing peace upon those around me.
I do elbow bumps. Knuckles too risky :)
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Since this is a fluid situation, I don't think anyone really knows how quickly things will evolve and what the full impact will be at this time. So to answer all your questions about possible scenarios, maybe yes, maybe no. But as the CDC recently stated, it's probably not a question of if, but when outbreaks will happen here in the US.

Good news is that based on available information, most cases are mild. Children seem to be less vulnerable. It is not as lethal as SARS, MERS, or bird flu (H5N1) from a death rate perspective. Right now, confirmed cases in US is very low and impact is much much less than regular flu. Evaluations underway for possible first line antiviral drug treatments.

Not so good news: It looks to be highly contagious like the flu and a pandemic seems inevitable, and looks to be more lethal than the regular flu or swine flu H1N1 2009 (2-3%, vs 0.1% vs 0.01-0.1%). Elderly and people with other significant health problems are at more risk for complications, death. No effective treatment other than support care so far. The earliest a vaccine might be available is around a year away. Possibility of mutation making it more lethal is always out there.

On the latest NYT Daily podcast, they talk about one possible outcome being similar to the Spanish flu of 1918 which had a death rate just below 2% but was global so overall death toll was high; it broke out early in the year, had a lull over spring/summer, then came back with a vengeance later in the year. Then again we may find an effective antiviral treatment and it may not be that bad after all.

The alarm bells being sounded are not meant to put people into a panic, but to inform and prepare the public for the possibility of disruptions that may impact significant parts around the country. And this may very well include impacts to the soccer community. I certainly am hoping for the best, but at least mentally preparing for things. If this becomes an epidemic state side, canceled soccer tournaments, camps, and seasons will be a secondary concern to me.

Practice and encourage frequent hand washing. Don't touch your face (much hard than you think). Get a flu shot. If you or a loved one gets sick with flu like symptoms stay home and seek medical attention. And stay up to date with reputable sources.

Well, the other big problem with this one is the acute ICU rate which we aren't really quite sure of yet (though the data from the Diamond Princess is helpful). They are guessing it's 5% on the low end and up to 15% on the high end. No country in the world has a capacity for 15% in its ICUs. One of the things which may have pushed the fatality rate higher in China is that they ran out of ICU capacity (and it may also account now that they've built up some rudimentary facilities for the fatality numbers stabilizing). Best case scenario is like the 1918 Spanish flu the onset of warmer weather and restrictive measures gives time for a treatment that will make that number fall so when it comes back with a vengance in fall we are ready for it. Worst case scenario everyone gets sick at once and the ICU are overwhelmed (particularly since it's unlikely we are going to take the extreme measures of welding people into their apartments like China did). If, for that reason, they try to slow the spread, I can see them deciding to limit social contacts which means no spring/summer tournament season. But, it's too early to tell....everyone 's watching what that ICU rate is.
 

Ansu Fati

SILVER
Well, the other big problem with this one is the acute ICU rate which we aren't really quite sure of yet (though the data from the Diamond Princess is helpful). They are guessing it's 5% on the low end and up to 15% on the high end. No country in the world has a capacity for 15% in its ICUs. One of the things which may have pushed the fatality rate higher in China is that they ran out of ICU capacity (and it may also account now that they've built up some rudimentary facilities for the fatality numbers stabilizing). Best case scenario is like the 1918 Spanish flu the onset of warmer weather and restrictive measures gives time for a treatment that will make that number fall so when it comes back with a vengance in fall we are ready for it. Worst case scenario everyone gets sick at once and the ICU are overwhelmed (particularly since it's unlikely we are going to take the extreme measures of welding people into their apartments like China did). If, for that reason, they try to slow the spread, I can see them deciding to limit social contacts which means no spring/summer tournament season. But, it's too early to tell....everyone 's watching what that ICU rate is.
Great points. Without parsing through the reports, I suspected the death rate in China was exacerbated by ICUs being overwhelmed at least initially.

Even if the ICU rate is say 5%, if we start seeing outbreaks here that may really put a strain our healthcare system. Where do you find estimates of ICU rates- articles/papers in the medical literature?

And now news reports out about federal workers not being given proper training, protective gear while interacting with the Americans quarantined for possible exposure and then subsequently let loose into the public, and a UC Davis student who is showing mild symptoms after potential exposure put in isolation, along with two asymptomatic roommates.

Next few days, weeks will be very interesting. Soccer may not be immune to all of this. Stay tuned.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Even if the ICU rate is say 5%, if we start seeing outbreaks here that may really put a strain our healthcare system. Where do you find estimates of ICU rates- articles/papers in the medical literature?
The Chinese aren't saying so there's no way to know what their rate is. Our best guidance is the Diamond Princess (and to a lesser extent Italy since in Italy there's no control for how many people are asymptomatic....since the Diamond Princess passengers and crew were tested we have a rough guess of the denominator....last I checked they were saying 7% but I haven't seen reliable figures in the last 2 days).
 

maestroFRSM

BRONZE
Cat’s outta the bag with community spread in Solano, and California’s ground zero for USA. Wasn’t worried last week, but now I am - seems like a black swan event. Like previously mentioned, only saving grace is we’re coming outta winter.
 

blam

SILVER ELITE
Over the last 20 years, I have learn to be immune to the sentimentalization of events.

Starting in 2001. Sept 11. Many people died. But I know no one personally who died there. On the contrary, I know of more people who were injured due to the subsequent wars than Sept 11.

2008 Housing crash. didn't affect me. I bought my first home in 2003. Everyone was screaming housing was a bubble in 2003. If they didnt' screamed, I would have bought my first house earlier in 2001!! They scared me from buying a home. Finally, the bubble burst in 2008. Well guess what? Home prices only fell back down to 2004-2005 levels. I was still above water the whole time because I bought in 2003 so 2008 crash did not affect me. What housing bubble? Bubble only to those who bought between 2004-2008.

2008 crash did affect my stock. However, everything recovered after a short 3-4 or so years.

2009 swine flu. Nobody made a big deal about this when it happened. Now, we know 1 in 4 got it. I probably got it and it never affected me. Didn't even know I got it probably.

Today, many people made a big deal the stock market loss 4% the biggest single day drop. Yet, it only dropped to the level it was back in October 2019 (3 months ago). Not a big deal unless you got in big time in the last 3 months which is highly unlikely. It has to drop more, like back to 2013 levels when there were calls that this "rally is not sustainable".

So that is why I am not worried. I'm more worried about things like earthquake than covid 19. Maybe my rationalization is wrong but given my life experience, I no longer panic. I am kind of agnostic to a little bit worried, just a little bit. Yes, ICU rate is troubling. But still not really super worried about it. I get more worried after talking to people who are super worried about it. But left to myself, I am not really worried at this time. In fact, I have shopped for cheap travel deals but I haven't found that many yet. Cruises are still expensive.
 
Maybe we skip the handshakes after the game and just walk past players and tell them “good game”.
At church last night for Ash Wednesday services, I did knuckle bumps when wishing peace upon those around me.
Pump fist the Priest for sure....lol. TGIF!!!
 

outside!

PREMIER
And now news reports out about federal workers not being given proper training, protective gear while interacting with the Americans quarantined for possible exposure and then subsequently let loose into the public
With the CDC funding cuts, this does not surprise me. Remember after 9/11 when OSHA was saying the air in NYC was safe to breath?
 

Ansu Fati

SILVER
I suggest politely flipping the bird. It’s a gesture that still acknowledges the other party, avoids contact, and ensures they never shake your hand again. I kid, I kid...
 

Poconos

GOLD
i heard that 11 people died of the flu last week in san diego county alone. perspective is good.

Coronavirus might be s spreading--but the flu is a greater threat to Americans

US Flu Cases Climb to 15 Million

Use normal methods to prevent Influenza and should be fine. Wash those hands with soap & water, use hot water on your dishs, clean all surfaces,, Teach your child to cough or sneeze into a tissue or his arm. Throw used tissues in the trash., etc,.

If you travel into certain areas additional precautions may be warranted.
 

Ansu Fati

SILVER
i heard that 11 people died of the flu last week in san diego county alone. perspective is good.
Perspective is good, however, things will continue evolve quickly over the coming days/weeks. Just in the NW, Washington state confirmed 4 more deaths in two neighboring counties today, and school closures have begun in Washington and Oregon state.

This is a novel infectious disease that we have still much to learn about, and we are still at the very beginning stages of the coronavirus situation in the US.

There hasn't been a significant uptick in cases in So Cal so far, but now that we know community spread is occurring and testing will be more readily available, that will almost certainly change. And with that will come disruptions, including possible school closures, and cancelled social events/large gatherings. Soccer won't be immune.

I am not panicking, and neither should anyone else. This is not end of days. But we are looking at a likely pandemic that will put a (hopefully very) small subset of the population (elderly, persons with significant comorbidities) at risk, without effective treatment or vaccine available at this time. And this is on top of an already bad flu season.

Stay tuned.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Perspective is good, however, things will continue evolve quickly over the coming days/weeks. Just in the NW, Washington state confirmed 4 more deaths in two neighboring counties today, and school closures have begun in Washington and Oregon state.
Because of the acute case rate, even if it doesn't turn out to be very deadly, they are going to have to shutter schools to slow down the spread (so that not everyone gets sick at the same time, as happened in Iran, and overwhelms the hospitals). We've seen it happen in Italy and Japan already, and will likely happen in the UK and France next week. So even if it's "not that bad" standard protocol in these circumstances is to close the schools and day care facilities since children tend to be vectors for disease (and we know from Washington state that children get it, just less severely). My guess is still that if circumstances continue unchanged, schools get closed for spring break and don't reopen.

I'm really surprised MIC hasn't been cancelled at this point. Universities are in the process of bringing home students from school in Europe.
 
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