Signing Day - Odds of Actually Playing 4 Years

Simisoccerfan

Simisoccerfan

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In honor of Signing Day and the end my dd’s first year of college soccer I thought to look at some data to see how many Freshman actually play and the odds of making it all four years at the college where they signed. So far I have looked at six years of data for 12 major mostly SoCal schools. I have seen enough data to draw the following conclusion:

  1. About 66% of college Freshman make it into a game during their first season. This means 1/3 of your dd’s that just signed won’t even play one minute next season. The range so far is from the low 50% to mid 70%. The quality of the program doesn’t seem to make a difference but more the overall size of the team. Stanford is leading the way with 75% of Freshman playing.

  2. Only about 60% of college Freshman are on their team‘s roster by their Senior year. The range is plus or minus 10%. Of course some of the 40% that don’t stay transfer to play elsewhere but there is no way to track this. So 40% of your dd’s signing today won’t still be playing for this team in 4 years.

  3. Just 1/3 of college Freshman that ride the pine their Freshman year are still on the team by their Senior year. This appears to be mostly made of goalies and players missing their first season due to injury. The odds are really stacked against Freshman field players that are healthy and can’t find playing time their first year.
So good luck to everyone’s dd’s and I hope that each find their way to a fulfilling college career.
 
Thank you for the data. Do you have any data on those who signed today if it's the same team they verbally committed to a few years ago on Instagram?
 
Simisoccerfan said:
In honor of Signing Day and the end my dd’s first year of college soccer I thought to look at some data to see how many Freshman actually play and the odds of making it all four years at the college where they signed. So far I have looked at six years of data for 12 major mostly SoCal schools. I have seen enough data to draw the following conclusion:

  1. About 66% of college Freshman make it into a game during their first season. This means 1/3 of your dd’s that just signed won’t even play one minute next season. The range so far is from the low 50% to mid 70%. The quality of the program doesn’t seem to make a difference but more the overall size of the team. Stanford is leading the way with 75% of Freshman playing.

  2. Only about 60% of college Freshman are on their team‘s roster by their Senior year. The range is plus or minus 10%. Of course some of the 40% that don’t stay transfer to play elsewhere but there is no way to track this. So 40% of your dd’s signing today won’t still be playing for this team in 4 years.

  3. Just 1/3 of college Freshman that ride the pine their Freshman year are still on the team by their Senior year. This appears to be mostly made of goalies and players missing their first season due to injury. The odds are really stacked against Freshman field players that are healthy and can’t find playing time their first year.
So good luck to everyone’s dd’s and I hope that each find their way to a fulfilling college career.
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where did you find this data?
 
gkrent said:
where did you find this data?
Click to expand...

I looked at the schools published rosters and stats and gathered data on several simple questions. How many freshman were on the team for each of the past 6 years. Did the freshman play even one minute during their first year? Where they still on the roster in 4 years? Pepperdine is the current leader with 75.6% of the Freshman still on the team after 4 years and was on the high end with 71.1% of Freshman playing their first year.
 
Before the big rule change, I was told by the Guru himself that 8 out of 10 female youth soccer players who verbally committed before their Sophomore year in HS did not end up playing all four years at the school they verbally committed to on Instagram. The new rules allow both the student/athlete and school to date a little and get to know one another before they sign their four year commitment letter :)
 
Simisoccerfan said:
I looked at the schools published rosters and stats and gathered data on several simple questions. How many freshman were on the team for each of the past 6 years. Did the freshman play even one minute during their first year? Where they still on the roster in 4 years? Pepperdine is the current leader with 75.6% of the Freshman still on the team after 4 years and was on the high end with 71.1% of Freshman playing their first year.
Click to expand...

7 of 8 freshman from my player's recruiting class are still on the team (87.5%) and the only one that isn't is on the US Women's National Team. My player was fortunate enough to play her freshman in every game except one (she was sick) and has started 72 consecutive games and 87 overall and is pretty happy about everything other than losing 5 consecutive times to Stanford.

As I always say: Pick the school first not the soccer!

Good luck to you and your player.
 
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