Seven stages of Covid.. keep playing and find out how far you will go!

watfly said:
Be careful, you could be labeled an anti-masker with your common sense position on children and masks. ;)

Out of honest curiosity, what makes you so sure your going to get it? I realize that luck plays a roll, is it just that you can't control luck? I took a don't be stupid, but don't hide, approach to Covid, and maybe I just got lucky. At this point I'm vaccinated and other than keeping my distance from people that are sick I don't really take any other precautions. While I probably wouldn't too surprised if I got Covid, I'm not expecting to get it.
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It's continuing to mutate. If either: a) vaccine/natural immunity drops with time as the Israelis believe (Gottlieb/Fauci believe it may be like chicken pox...one booster and it's enough to keep vaccine immunity high....but they are guessing....there's no data to support that), or b) the mutations continue, the herd immunity number is set way over 100%....it's therefore likely that over time everyone will get it (as they do with the flu). The problem is we don't know if either of the two assumptions are true, but it's looking more likely than not which would make it endemic.
 
Grace T. said:
It's continuing to mutate. If either: a) vaccine/natural immunity drops with time as the Israelis believe (Gottlieb/Fauci believe it may be like chicken pox...one booster and it's enough to keep vaccine immunity high....but they are guessing....there's no data to support that), or b) the mutations continue, the herd immunity number is set way over 100%....it's therefore likely that over time everyone will get it (as they do with the flu). The problem is we don't know if either of the two assumptions are true, but it's looking more likely than not which would make it endemic.
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Well hell, only 1 in 10 have tested positive in San Diego (obviously the actual Covid cases are higher), so we have a long way to go. While I'm one that said that the virus will always find the path of least resistance, I still believe it will burnout before everyone gets it (and not necessarily due to herd immunity). The virus hasn't shown any indication of that yet, (in terms of cases) but I'm hopeful it will. Call me naïve.
 
watfly said:
Well hell, only 1 in 10 have tested positive in San Diego (obviously the actual Covid cases are higher), so we have a long way to go. While I'm one that said that the virus will always find the path of least resistance, I still believe it will burnout before everyone gets it (and not necessarily due to herd immunity). The virus hasn't shown any indication of that yet, (in terms of cases) but I'm hopeful it will. Call me naïve.
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There are two theories of thought on that. Assume the assumptions are correct and herd immunity is over (in which case it will be way over most likely) 100%....1) the virus continues its evolutionary trek down the delta (with the delta displacing most other competitors)....eventually it runs out of things to do to change....eventually it burns out and goes away but this takes place over the course of years, perhaps even a decade, gradually peetering out with each year it being less and less of a problem, or 2) another family of mutations arises (say for example the mu that's caught the press's attention)....this continues pretty much forever like flu.....some years will be better than others....people will catch it multiple times....the vulnerable will periodically die from it.
 
Grace T. said:
There are two theories of thought on that. Assume the assumptions are correct and herd immunity is over (in which case it will be way over most likely) 100%....1) the virus continues its evolutionary trek down the delta (with the delta displacing most other competitors)....eventually it runs out of things to do to change....eventually it burns out and goes away but this takes place over the course of years, perhaps even a decade, gradually peetering out with each year it being less and less of a problem, or 2) another family of mutations arises (say for example the mu that's caught the press's attention)....this continues pretty much forever like flu.....some years will be better than others....people will catch it multiple times....the vulnerable will periodically die from it.
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I don't like either of those scenarios. Is there a scenario where a Covid vaccine is developed that is as effective as the Polio vaccine?
 
watfly said:
I don't like either of those scenarios. Is there a scenario where a Covid vaccine is developed that is as effective as the Polio vaccine?
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No. Polio is much more stable.

Best chance is if Fauci/Gottlieb are right (and the Israelis are wrong) and boosters make it like the chicken pox vaccine and the delta burns out naturally in the non-vaxxed portion of the world (if natural immunity is robust and long lasting against any of delta's children).
 
watfly said:
I don't like either of those scenarios. Is there a scenario where a Covid vaccine is developed that is as effective as the Polio vaccine?
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Not likely (not being a debbie downer). It's a RNA virus, continuous vaccination will likely cause constant mutation of the vaunted "spike protein". Other challenges as well - not everyone will want to get a yearly vaccine (that's the direction this is headed). Roughly 50% get vaccinated for the flu every year.

RNA viruses are challenging.
 
Grace T. said:
From a systems point of view: a. there aren't enough N95s to go around for everyone (you and I agree govt should have done more in this area). Every N95 you use is an N95 which is not available to a medical worker or vulnerable person like my folks. Every N95 that you buy drives up the price incrementally from people that want them and have an argument that they really need them.
b. you've said surgicals works....why don't you use them then? You're using an N95 in the supermarket is going to do very much to help the others around you....aren't you in education too....aren't you getting tested?...the odds of you asymptomatically passing something onto others given you are also vaccinated are very small.
c. The n95 is about you....it's not about others. You either believe the science you've been pushing or you don't. Either the masks work or they don't.
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False dichotomies.
 
what-happened said:
Not likely (not being a debbie downer). It's a RNA virus, continuous vaccination will likely cause constant mutation of the vaunted "spike protein". Other challenges as well - not everyone will want to get a yearly vaccine (that's the direction this is headed). Roughly 50% get vaccinated for the flu every year.

RNA viruses are challenging.
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Yes, RNA viruses are challenging, and respiratory viruses are challenging. By the way, poliovirus is also an RNA virus, and it has a pretty high mutation rate too. This is also contributes to the probability of getting vaccine associated paralytic polio from the oral attenuated vaccine. (The Sabin version.). The Sabin oral vaccine has mutations introduced that make it so it is not neurovirulant. (But, as the crippled virus replicates in your gut, there is a small probability that it will acquire the right set of reversions to make it neurovirulant.) An advantage of attenuated virus is that the community gets an immune boost too.

The inactivated Salk vaccine was developed first, and is typically 90% effective after two shots- better after more. But, to make that vaccine back in the 50's they did have to sacrifice a lot of monkeys. There was also some manufacturing quality control problems where some vaccine doses we're contaminated with highly infectious virus. Not good. They've fixed/improved the manufacturing issues. The inactivated vaccine also doesn't elicit as strong of intestinal immunity as the attenuated vaccine. Over time there have been improvements in the protocols too, and vaccination schedules used to include a mix of the inactivated vaccine and the attenuated. With the eradication campaign, the oral attenuated vaccine will need to be stopped, but it is still used in other countries.

By the way, vaccination will have absolutely no effect on the mutation rate of the SARS-CoV2 virus. As long as the virus can replicate, it will make copying mistakes - and it will also recombine with other SARS-CoV2 genomes in the infected cell. At some probability, some combinations of changes could alter / reduce the effectiveness of neutralizing antibodies.
 
Roadrunner said:
Yes, RNA viruses are challenging, and respiratory viruses are challenging. By the way, poliovirus is also an RNA virus, and it has a pretty high mutation rate too. This is also contributes to the probability of getting vaccine associated paralytic polio from the oral attenuated vaccine. (The Sabin version.). The Sabin oral vaccine has mutations introduced that make it so it is not neurovirulant. (But, as the crippled virus replicates in your gut, there is a small probability that it will acquire the right set of reversions to make it neurovirulant.) An advantage of attenuated virus is that the community gets an immune boost too.

The inactivated Salk vaccine was developed first, and is typically 90% effective after two shots- better after more. But, to make that vaccine back in the 50's they did have to sacrifice a lot of monkeys. There was also some manufacturing quality control problems where some vaccine doses we're contaminated with highly infectious virus. Not good. They've fixed/improved the manufacturing issues. The inactivated vaccine also doesn't elicit as strong of intestinal immunity as the attenuated vaccine. Over time there have been improvements in the protocols too, and vaccination schedules used to include a mix of the inactivated vaccine and the attenuated. With the eradication campaign, the oral attenuated vaccine will need to be stopped, but it is still used in other countries.

By the way, vaccination will have absolutely no effect on the mutation rate of the SARS-CoV2 virus. As long as the virus can replicate, it will make copying mistakes - and it will also recombine with other SARS-CoV2 genomes in the infected cell. At some probability, some combinations of changes could alter / reduce the effectiveness of neutralizing antibodies.
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I love how @espola gives his thumbs up. Cracks me up.

This is a soccer forum and certainly not a meeting place for renowned disease ecologist, evolutionary biologists, and the such. Who knows, you may be one of them. Many of us are not. I get the basics (just the required course load). Plenty of research out there that supports the idea that vaccines drive RNA mutation. There just is. As is with science and especially in these fields, plenty of planted flags on either side of the equation. But, you sound like you know what you are talking about and I kinda understand where you are coming from. Great rundown.
 
what-happened said:
I love how @espola gives his thumbs up. Cracks me up.

This is a soccer forum and certainly not a meeting place for renowned disease ecologist, evolutionary biologists, and the such. Who knows, you may be one of them. Many of us are not. I get the basics (just the required course load). Plenty of research out there that supports the idea that vaccines drive RNA mutation. There just is. As is with science and especially in these fields, plenty of planted flags on either side of the equation. But, you sound like you know what you are talking about and I kinda understand where you are coming from. Great rundown.
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I have never seen a peer-reviewed paper with the term "There just is".
 
what-happened said:
Plenty of research out there that supports the idea that vaccines drive RNA mutation. There just is.
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If such research is out there, I haven't seen it. From a biological perspective, this doesn't really make sense. But, there are plenty of news type articles written about how viruses can gain mutations that allow them to escape neutralizing antibodies, and from how these are written, I easily understand how it can be confusing.

The genetic changes arise at a higher rate in RNA viruses because the enzyme complex that copies the RNA makes mistakes that don't get corrected. (But some RNA viruses have higher mutation rates than others- coronaviruses can actually do some proofreading, keeping the error rate lower.) If the changes allow the virus to escape someone's immune system then it will be more likely to continue propagating. But neither the antibodies developed in response to vaccination nor the vaccine itself directly increase the rate of mutation. I don't think this is something scientists disagree about.

And yes, it's a soccer forum... That has a thread about vaccines. Haha.
 
Roadrunner said:
If such research is out there, I haven't seen it. From a biological perspective, this doesn't really make sense. But, there are plenty of news type articles written about how viruses can gain mutations that allow them to escape neutralizing antibodies, and from how these are written, I easily understand how it can be confusing.

The genetic changes arise at a higher rate in RNA viruses because the enzyme complex that copies the RNA makes mistakes that don't get corrected. (But some RNA viruses have higher mutation rates than others- coronaviruses can actually do some proofreading, keeping the error rate lower.) If the changes allow the virus to escape someone's immune system then it will be more likely to continue propagating. But neither the antibodies developed in response to vaccination nor the vaccine itself directly increase the rate of mutation. I don't think this is something scientists disagree about.

And yes, it's a soccer forum... That has a thread about vaccines. Haha.
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Absolutely correct, but somewhat of a semantic disagreement.

Vaccines don’t promote mutations, but do limit the successful pathways of propagation. That provides an evolutionary advantage to the mutations. (Not the frequency, but the likelihood of evolutionary success in propagation.

I assume that you get this based on your posts (tongue-in-check comment as that is abundantly clear), but I also give you credit for the specific diction in your posts that is less than neutral.

Are there a plethora of studies pointing to vaccines as drivers of virus mutations? No. Do strains of viruses propagate more frequently than others? Yes.

Which was the poster referring to? That it is generally accepted that vaccines cause mutations or that vaccines encourage the propagation of mutations more so than the strain that is vaccinated against?

Then again this is the off topic form, so… who knows?
 
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