GA Cup Predicts - U15 - Feb 14th thru Feb 17th

Kante

GOLD
Have been pinged by multiple folks about predicts for the GA Cup matches this weekend. So giving the people what they want, predicts are below.

Here's u15 predicts for Feb 14th. Predicts for the Feb 15th matches will follow as an update to this thread first thing the morning of Feb 15th.

Group A
LAFC 1 - CO Rapids 1 (advantage: LAFC)
Portland Timbers 1 - FC Dallas 5
Vancouver 2 - Houston Dynamo 2 (advantage: none)

Group B
Minnesota 1 - Sporting KC 2
San Jose Earthquakes 1 - Chicago Fire 2
Seattle Sounders 4 - LA Galaxy 1 note: LAG has been impressive lately, so this may be closer than the algo is saying

Group C
Inter Miami 1 - Philadelphia Union 2
New England Revolution 2 - DC United 4
New York Red Bulls 1 - Real Salt Lake 1 (advantage: NYRB)

Group D
Montreal 3 - Orlando City 1
New York City FC 1 - Atlanta United 1 (advantage: NYCFC)
Toronto 1 - Crew SC 1 (advantage: Toronto)
 

Kante

GOLD
Slept on the Sounders vs LA Galaxy match. Couple of things kept popping to mind. LAG is playing at home. The resurgence of LAG since the holiday break (eg, beating Nomads 7-1 despite playing most of the match w/ 10, 1-1 tie w/ LAFC in a match that most said could have gone either way etc). The Sounders being off since late November etc.

So, twisted some knobs and dials on the algo to try to account for these items.

Have LAG 1 - Sounders 3. Biggest item appears to be LAG's defense' tendency to give up goals.

Here's the quick book on Seattle:

Defensively
Seattle has only given up seven goals across nine DA games, but three of those goals came in the first ten minutes of the match.

Seattle also tends to ease up a bit defensively right before half, and have surrendered two goals came in the 31st to 40th minutes, right before half.

Caveat on these notes is that this a very small sample.

Offensively
Seattle tends to start strong, wide open and increasingly aggressive over the first thirty minutes, and almost half of their goals coming in this first thirty .

The 21st to 30th minute period is a particularly dangerous time for other teams, with Seattle scoring their most goals per minute in that period of time.

Seattle tends to ease up a bit offensively a bit in the 31st to 70th minutes, likely due to holding the lead in most matches.

They then tend to crank things back up in the 71st to 80th minutes (but it'd be fair to characterize this as a bit of garbage time).

Keys to stopping Seattle's offense:
  1. Per game reports, Seattle has 11 players who have scored, so the offense is keyed off solid ball movement/distribution, rather than 1-2 dominant goal scorers.
  2. #82/BF is their leading goal scorer but only accounts for about 20% of their total goals. However, he's scored four of his five goals in the 15th to 25th minutes, so something for LAG to keep an eye on at that point in the game.
  3. Seattle's second leading goal scorer is an 06, ML. Not sure if he'll be at GA Cup but if he's there, he typically scores late in the game, with three of his four goal coming in the last 15 minutes.
  4. Seattle's third leading scorers are #74/IF and #88/AH. IF has done all his scoring early in the first 15 minutes of the 2nd half while AH tends to score in the 31st to 40th minute period, right before first half (AH is the only Sounder to score in that time period this season)
  5. Seattle plays a former striker - #65/JH - back at outside back, and JH - a YNT call-up who went to Poland - is dangerous getting forward to score as well.
All said, Seattle's a handful offensively, and LAG 's D, which has been shaky most of this season, will have their work cut out for them.

Seattle does a lot of overlapping runs with their outside backs, which tend to draw opposing mids a little wide, opening space behind for late runs from Seattle's mids, and then goals are scored.

So LAG's mids - and particularly their 6 - will have to be disciplined and LAG's outside backs will have to be able to manage the 2v1s.

LAG has decent size so pushing Seattle wide and then dealing w/ the crosses may be a reasonable solution.

Having said all that, there will be oppty for LAG to counter up to the wings, and maybe up to the 10 and then out wide.

Should be a really fun match to watch.
 

Kante

GOLD
An interesting item from soccerwire talking about the MLS expanding the GA Cup. Of particular note, they're adding a handful of MLS affiliate clubs - i.e. non-MLS clubs - to the competition. These include Met Oval, RSL-AZ, Rio Rapids New Mexico, Sporting St Louis and the Toronto FC Affiliate All-Stars.


Screen Shot 2020-02-13 at 10.54.43 AM.png
 

SoCal23

BRONZE
An interesting item from soccerwire talking about the MLS expanding the GA Cup. Of particular note, they're adding a handful of MLS affiliate clubs - i.e. non-MLS clubs - to the competition. These include Met Oval, RSL-AZ, Rio Rapids New Mexico, Sporting St Louis and the Toronto FC Affiliate All-Stars.


View attachment 6383
It would have been nice if they added the 2006 TFA team.
 

futbol10

BRONZE
"... a handful of MLS affiliate clubs."

Plenty of "would have been nice" teams out there, but it's an MLS-sponsored tournament. Plus, 2006s are U14. This is for U15 and U17.
Although the affiliate group doesn't specify the age in the announcement, the RSL-AZ team that is traveling are U14. So, we can assume the other affiliates are also U14.
 

Kante

GOLD
maybe instead of adding non-MLS clubs to the GA cup (aka the Oliver Twist, please sir, may I have another..? approach), it would be more interesting for non-MLS clubs to reach out to Nike about a non-MLS DA/GDI tournament that runs concurrent w/ GA Cup.

For example, plenty of u15 clubs out there that are better than a majority of the MLS u15s. Examples include BW Gottschee, Barca, NC Youth, Dallas Texans, Baltimore Armour etc. Just need, ahem, a broadly accepted ranking system to ID teams. Maybe even a regional play-off system similar to NCAA...
 
maybe instead of adding non-MLS clubs to the GA cup (aka the Oliver Twist, please sir, may I have another..? approach), it would be more interesting for non-MLS clubs to reach out to Nike about a non-MLS DA/GDI tournament that runs concurrent w/ GA Cup.

For example, plenty of u15 clubs out there that are better than a majority of the MLS u15s. Examples include BW Gottschee, Barca, NC Youth, Dallas Texans, Baltimore Armour etc. Just need, ahem, a broadly accepted ranking system to ID teams. Maybe even a regional play-off system similar to NCAA...
FYI there is already a "open" Generation adidas National Cup, playing this weekend in RICHMOND, VIRGINIA
 

Kante

GOLD
Here's predicts for the 2/15 u15 GA Cup matches.

Group A
Houston 1 - LAFC 4
Portland Timbers 1 - Vancouver Whitecaps 2
Colorado Rapids 0 - FC Dallas 1

Group B
LA Galaxy 2 - Minnesota 1
Sporting KC 1 - Chicago Fire 2
San Jose Earthquakes 1 - Seattle 2

Group C
Real Salt Lake 1 - Inter Miami 2
Philadelphia Union 3 - DC United 2
New England Revolution 1 - New York Red Bulls 4

Group D
Toronto 1 - Crew Sc 1 (advantage: Toronto)
Atlanta United 2 - FC Cinncinnati 1
New York City FC 2 - Orlando City 0
 
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