COVID Herd Immunity - NY Times

Well Grace, you may be on to something. You took a lot of heat for even considering the idea "something was happening" to slow the spread long before any experts were saying anything out loud. Some experts are now thinking the same thing.

 

Desert Hound

PREMIER
And.....

"Gottlieb said seroprevalence studies overall indicate that roughly 8% of the U.S. population has been exposed to the coronavirus, though the rate of exposure varies depending on whether states have experienced outbreaks. In Arizona, for example, roughly 25% of the population has been exposed based on modeling, while as much as 20% of the population in Florida has been exposed, he said.

"That's getting closer to a level of immunity where the rate of transmission will start to decline," Gottlieb said. "It's not quite herd immunity, but you're to see declines in the rate of transmission because of that level of infection."


So it seems locking down just prolongs the whole process.
 
And.....

"Gottlieb said seroprevalence studies overall indicate that roughly 8% of the U.S. population has been exposed to the coronavirus, though the rate of exposure varies depending on whether states have experienced outbreaks. In Arizona, for example, roughly 25% of the population has been exposed based on modeling, while as much as 20% of the population in Florida has been exposed, he said.

"That's getting closer to a level of immunity where the rate of transmission will start to decline," Gottlieb said. "It's not quite herd immunity, but you're to see declines in the rate of transmission because of that level of infection."


So it seems locking down just prolongs the whole process.
Your infections / 100,000 (12.9) are dropping like a rock and the Rt that is being calculated by rt.live is the lowest in the US. If that's correct, AZ will continue to drop in infections/100,000. The only thing I'd be concerned about would be adding back the known riskier behavior like bars and big crowds - especially inside. That would raise the infection rate and it's unknown how much it would rise.

1597679676879.png
 

dad4

PREMIER
And.....

"Gottlieb said seroprevalence studies overall indicate that roughly 8% of the U.S. population has been exposed to the coronavirus, though the rate of exposure varies depending on whether states have experienced outbreaks. In Arizona, for example, roughly 25% of the population has been exposed based on modeling, while as much as 20% of the population in Florida has been exposed, he said.

"That's getting closer to a level of immunity where the rate of transmission will start to decline," Gottlieb said. "It's not quite herd immunity, but you're to see declines in the rate of transmission because of that level of infection."


So it seems locking down just prolongs the whole process.
Only half right. If you take the time to read the articles, masks and distancing decrease the infection percentage needed for herd immunity. A population which is immune at 30% with masks and closures might need need 40 or 50% infected to achieve immunity without masks and closures.

In other words, going out to dinner and bars without masks means herd immunity comes sooner, but you accumulate more deaths along the way.
 
In other words, going out to dinner and bars without masks means herd immunity comes sooner, but you accumulate more deaths along the way.
I know you understand this, but you left it unstated. To acquire fewer deaths, it also requires that you never go back to indoor dinner and bars, or you get a viable vaccine before you do so.

In some sense, if you believe the Rt for AZ = 0.8 as shown on rt.live, AZ has reached herd immunity for their current level of "activity". Change the level of activity and it is possible Rt rises above 1.0 again and the number of infections grows again.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
You have to understand bars are still open. They have 2 categories. Bars that dont serve food...closed. Bars that do...open.

So this photo is one I took 3 weeks ago while sitting at a bar. People are out and about. They just cant go to a neighborhood bar that doesnt serve food.

View attachment 8669
Seems like Utah is similar. The old saloon is usually packed
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Well Grace, you may be on to something. You took a lot of heat for even considering the idea "something was happening" to slow the spread long before any experts were saying anything out loud. Some experts are now thinking the same thing.

What’s happening in Spain seems to support this. The outbreak is strongest in Barcelona which never got to 20%. That said as prison have shown it seems to be a soft barrier which slows things down. Not a hard one which says you are at herd immunity. And if seasonality isn’t a thing then we may see additional small peaks but nothing like the initial waves

beyond Spain the other great experiment is Australia and New Zealand. How effective their suppression measures are should give us the read on what impact these measures have. And when they lift them (if they don’t have 20%) we’ll get to see if they did anything or just pushed the wave back
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Well Grace, you may be on to something. You took a lot of heat for even considering the idea "something was happening" to slow the spread long before any experts were saying anything out loud. Some experts are now thinking the same thing.

What’s happening in Spain seems to support this. The outbreak is strongest in Barcelona which never got to 20%. That said as prison have shown it seems to be a soft barrier which slows things down. Not a hard one which says you are at herd immunity. And if seasonality isn’t a thing then we may see additional small peaks but nothing like the initial waves

beyond Spain the other great experiment is Australia and New Zealand. How effective their suppression measures are should give us the read on what impact these measures have. And when they lift them (if they don’t have 20%) we’ll get to see if they did anything or just pushed the wave back
 

whatithink

SILVER ELITE
You have to understand bars are still open. They have 2 categories. Bars that dont serve food...closed. Bars that do...open.
Pedant alert: its actually based on your license, so if you have a 12, then you are classed as a restaurant and can open, whereas if you have a 6, you are classed as a bar and have to remain closed for in person (can still do take out food/drink). The amount of food you serve has nothing to do with it.

It's arbitrary and our beloved Gov deciding which businesses survive and which don't.
 
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