CA County by County Covid-19 Key Metrics: Rate of CV-19 Spread over Time and Hospitalizations as % of Total Care Capacity

Actually we do. Other countries report the same thing regarding kids. In a variety of countries schools for instance are open as just one example.

It makes far more sense to "lock up your 19 and 13 yr old" to protect you than it does locking down or severely limiting other people and families who have little to no risk. Now if everything is opened up and you still prefer to let them go out, that is on you. Either way that is a far smarter strategy vs locking down/limiting the vast majority of the population that doesnt have any real risk.



It certainly is changing all the time. The numbers in terms of fatality rate gets better and better. So on that I agree. And we should open up more based on who we see is at risk, etc. Again this isn't just US numbers. We see the same risk patterns in all the other countries as well.

Again why? We know who is at risk and who isn't.
Your risk analysis and approach remind me of the approach used to justify internment camps during World War II. You are not the only one and that is what is sad.
 

watfly

GOLD
You should lose your obsession with minimizing Covid-related deaths and maximizing your purely invented "lockdown caused non-Covid deaths." It's irresponsible gibberish. The fact that, unlike so many others on here, you can actually speak, makes it even more irresponsible.
While we can disagree to the extent of the non-Covid impacts, its far from an invention, many real experts are very concerned. You just don't believe based upon emotion, so I will never convince you, but nonetheless attached is a well sourced article on the non-Covid impacts. While some might not impact our country directly its still a very serious issue.
 
While we can disagree to the extent of the non-Covid impacts, its far from an invention, many real experts are very concerned. You just don't believe based upon emotion, so I will never convince you, but nonetheless attached is a well sourced article on the non-Covid impacts. While some might not impact our country directly its still a very serious issue.
You are talking to a CPA with over 25 years auditing SEC clients....I do not work off of emotion. I have presented the numbers. You can do the calculations. We had an 18.5% increase average over 3 days last week in hospitalizations and a 13% increase in ICU beds for last week. You do the math. Is this the guy that is an anti-vaccine guy that has no medical background?
 
While we can disagree to the extent of the non-Covid impacts, its far from an invention, many real experts are very concerned. You just don't believe based upon emotion, so I will never convince you, but nonetheless attached is a well sourced article on the non-Covid impacts. While some might not impact our country directly its still a very serious issue.
I scanned the article. My argument has always been simple....look at the number of hospital beds and ICU beds we have in OC and the increasing trend of usage and you will see we are going to run into a capacity problem if something doesn't change. Good thing we do not have issues with Malaria and the like as discussed in this article.
 

watfly

GOLD
You are talking to a CPA with over 25 years auditing SEC clients....I do not work off of emotion. I have presented the numbers. You can do the calculations. We had an 18.5% increase average over 3 days last week in hospitalizations and a 13% increase in ICU beds for last week. You do the math. Is this the guy that is an anti-vaccine guy that has no medical background?
Keepermom2 that emotion comment was clearly directed at Messy, not you. You articulate your positions, Messy just goes on unintelligible, name calling rants.

Joke for you (probably heard it before):
"What's it like when a CPA shows up at a party?"
"It's like having 5 fun people leave"

I'm actually nearing 30 years a CPA myself, although haven't practiced publicly in 18, and not audited in 28. (No Sarbanes-Oxley for me) Mostly consulting, forensics and expert witness work when public. Third generation CPA. Not saying I'm proud of that, just saying :D.
 
Keepermom2 that emotion comment was clearly directed at Messy, not you. You articulate your positions, Messy just goes on unintelligible, name calling rants.

Joke for you (probably heard it before):
"What's it like when a CPA shows up at a party?"
"It's like having 5 fun people leave"

I'm actually nearing 30 years a CPA myself, although haven't practiced publicly in 18, and not audited in 28. (No Sarbanes-Oxley for me) Mostly consulting, forensics and expert witness work when public. Third generation CPA. Not saying I'm proud of that, just saying :D.
I almost married a CPA. Opposites attract, that's for sure :)
 
Keepermom2 that emotion comment was clearly directed at Messy, not you. You articulate your positions, Messy just goes on unintelligible, name calling rants.

Joke for you (probably heard it before):
"What's it like when a CPA shows up at a party?"
"It's like having 5 fun people leave"

I'm actually nearing 30 years a CPA myself, although haven't practiced publicly in 18, and not audited in 28. (No Sarbanes-Oxley for me) Mostly consulting, forensics and expert witness work when public. Third generation CPA. Not saying I'm proud of that, just saying :D.
I am fricken funny!!! LOL My personality isn't completely that of a CPA (I worked at Nordstrom as a makeup artist during college) but I am a SOX consultant so I can also be a stay at home mom as a single parent. I see my friends making close to a mil a year and remind myself of the joy of being a stay at home mom doing unintelligent (SOX) work.

You should be able to do the calculations I am talking about and understand the hospitalization increase rate is the operable number that will determine if we should lock up all "at risk" people in internment camps or do something else to lower that increase in hospitalization rate which will only get worse once the flu season hits in September. I literally put the formula in based on the recent increase rate and figure out how many days and/or weeks it will take us to reach capacity. That is why I say something will have to change or we will be left with no other options.
 

watfly

GOLD
I am fricken funny!!! LOL My personality isn't completely that of a CPA (I worked at Nordstrom as a makeup artist during college) but I am a SOX consultant so I can also be a stay at home mom as a single parent. I see my friends making close to a mil a year and remind myself of the joy of being a stay at home mom doing unintelligent (SOX) work.

You should be able to do the calculations I am talking about and understand the hospitalization increase rate is the operable number that will determine if we should lock up all "at risk" people in internment camps or do something else to lower that increase in hospitalization rate which will only get worse once the flu season hits in September. I literally put the formula in based on the recent increase rate and figure out how many days and/or weeks it will take us to reach capacity. That is why I say something will have to change or we will be left with no other options.
People have told me that I didn't seem like a CPA. I take that as a compliment. I'm not funny, just sarcastic, which I was told was the lowest form of humor, but she was pretty uptight so I took it with a grain of salt.

I totally get your math and understand your position. I just haven't seen Covid follow a straight line. There are just too many variables to predict its outcome. That's why I rely on what actually has happened (even though some of that is in dispute) vs. projections, which have been consistently wrong regardless of the source. Would I be concerned in regards to OC's ICU beds, somewhat, but I don't think its going to happen. I need to keep my word of not posting regarding Covid. But lets revisit in a few months and see what actually happens.
 
People have told me that I didn't seem like a CPA. I take that as a compliment. I'm not funny, just sarcastic, which I was told was the lowest form of humor, but she was pretty uptight so I took it with a grain of salt.

I totally get your math and understand your position. I just haven't seen Covid follow a straight line. There are just too many variables to predict its outcome. That's why I rely on what actually has happened (even though some of that is in dispute) vs. projections, which have been consistently wrong regardless of the source. Would I be concerned in regards to OC's ICU beds, somewhat, but I don't think its going to happen. I need to keep my word of not posting regarding Covid. But lets revisit in a few months and see what actually happens.
Lets revisit in 2 weeks not a couple of months. As you know, projections based on historical data is a pretty common practice. Having said that, a 3 day average or 1 week average isn't enough to establish a pattern. This week will be more telling to me to see if we keep with the pattern established last week. We never have decreased from week to week since the beginning. For the projections I did to be wrong, our weekly rate of hospitalizations would have to decrrease.
 
Your point is very clearly received and utterly compassionate....fuck society I need to live my life.
Actually it seems to be on you. You are saying I am at risk, therefore everyone else must cater to my risk even though the vast majority of people. don't have any risk.

The logical solution is for people like you to self quarantine if you feel you need to. And if you have kids and worry about them infecting you, then self quarantine them.

What you seem to be proposing is have everyone self quarantine or limit their business income, education, etc. even though they are not at risk but you are.

Which option makes more sense? Focus on who is at risk...or shut down most things that are not risky?
 

wc_baller

SILVER ELITE
Actually it seems to be on you. You are saying I am at risk, therefore everyone else must cater to my risk even though the vast majority of people. don't have any risk.

The logical solution is for people like you to self quarantine if you feel you need to. And if you have kids and worry about them infecting you, then self quarantine them.

What you seem to be proposing is have everyone self quarantine or limit their business income, education, etc. even though they are not at risk but you are.

Which option makes more sense? Focus on who is at risk...or shut down most things that are not risky?
ICU’s are so full in your state that today your governor just shut down bars, movie theaters, night clubs, gyms and other businesses for the next month.
 
ICU’s are so full in your state that today your governor just shut down bars, movie theaters, night clubs, gyms and other businesses for the next month.
Well well well....that is very telling. If DH represents the views of his State, all has become clear. It also shows the complete ignorance to decisions that have to be made because of the risk of overwhelming the healthcare system. His governor waited too long. The LA mayor essentially just said everything I said in the above posts related to the increasing rates leading to overwhelming LA healthcare system. I said it related to the OC healthcare system. We were put on the Governor watch list today. Once you are at 75% capacity, it is too late to start making changes.

 
Boris Johnson to take a “Rooseveltian approach” to help the UK economy come back.
Surprising terminology, but that’s national leadership.
 
Okay...so from here on out we will call it "approximate" deaths from COVID to stop this argument going down a rabbit hole which we are already half way down. You already agree that there are reasons for it to go up and down. The overall argument about deaths being mis-characterized as COVID has been debunked long ago. You are right that we won't know the final number for probably years....there will be audits etc. that will occur because of COVID funding etc., but understand that usually when accumulating data on illnesses other than COVID, the number of deaths related to a specific illness go up. When you are dealing with such a large number in deaths over a short period of time, the likelihood of statistically significant # of deaths being mischaracterized is very low.
Thank you Dr.
 
You are talking to a CPA with over 25 years auditing SEC clients....I do not work off of emotion. I have presented the numbers. You can do the calculations. We had an 18.5% increase average over 3 days last week in hospitalizations and a 13% increase in ICU beds for last week. You do the math. Is this the guy that is an anti-vaccine guy that has no medical background?
Quit rioting.
 
Well well well....that is very telling. If DH represents the views of his State, all has become clear. It also shows the complete ignorance to decisions that have to be made because of the risk of overwhelming the healthcare system. His governor waited too long. The LA mayor essentially just said everything I said in the above posts related to the increasing rates leading to overwhelming LA healthcare system. I said it related to the OC healthcare system. We were put on the Governor watch list today. Once you are at 75% capacity, it is too late to start making changes.

Send the illegals packing.
 
Spoke to a friend whose wife is a nurse at a hospital in Texas. I asked him for the truth behind the scenes and what is really going on. I can;t mention the place she works, but they have seen a big up tic in younger folks coming to the hospital and having a very hard time breathing. So, in the spirit of compassion and just needed to let go my selfishness on wanting my dd to play one more soccer game, I surrender to the lock down and will just go and make sure we all stay healthy on celery juice, carrot juice and vegan food. Yes, its super political but that is what life is really about on earth. He did add this and I though this was very important. Also, another Dr friend from OC and Seattle all say the same thing, stay healthy!!! All the young patients in the hospital were over weight and had hypertension and were not healthy before Corona. I'm not judging those who choose to eat bad. Our family, years before the Corona, made the commitment and sacrifice of saying "no" to ice cream, candy, sugar, bad starchy carbs, wheat, process food, dairy,fast food, grease that fills your arteries to help block blood flow and many other poisons my wife got out of our house. It was so hard but super healthy and that was a choice and the right choice. I'm grateful for my wife for helping me see why I need to be healthy and protect myself and others from the Corona and I've been told to be super healthy because this sucker will kill and it comes with much suffering. Stay safe AZ, TX and all the states in our Union, regardless of political juice. One thing we all can control is the way we eat :)
 
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