Bad News Thread

So the latest doom befalling us is the delta variant.

Lets look at cases vs deaths and see if there is anything to worry about.

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I think all three examples shown are ≥50% 18 and older at least one pop. So if we get past the expected lag between cases and deaths and they still appear uncoupled its really good news, especially since a lot, if not most, cases will be delta. Anybody know of any equivalent recent spike data for a low vax country?
 
Now compare the above charts vs Russia. They either have a bad vaccine, low vaccination rates, or both.

Either way we see the rise in cases ARE corresponding with a big rise in deaths.

We are not seeing this in the west with better vaccines and high vaccination rates. I believe the concern over the delta variant is overblown based on what we are seeing so far.

2021-07-20_1350.png2021-07-20_1351.png
 
Now compare the above charts vs Russia. They either have a bad vaccine, low vaccination rates, or both.

Either way we see the rise in cases ARE corresponding with a big rise in deaths.

We are not seeing this in the west with better vaccines and high vaccination rates. I believe the concern over the delta variant is overblown based on what we are seeing so far.

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So the pattern at least fits with a substantial life protective effect in high vax Western countries although we're clearly arm chair quarterbacking with a small subset of data. Encouraging though. As the data emerges, things epidemiologists will be wondering in making policy recommendations include: so we got a mixture of people who appear to be more resistant to at least the Covid19 part of Cov-2, likely as a result of acquired immunity through previous infection, through vaxx, or both. We've also got a higher burst variant that's coming on strong. For those that test positive by PCR (which I assume largely = cases), maybe show a range of non-life threatening symptoms, what sort of viral titer are they producing? Its possible that the numbers right now could mean that the increase in viral production associated with the delta variant basically just cause people that would have been asymptomatic to now feel low level symptoms and therefore go get tested and get scored as cases, even though their lives were never in any danger. In that case the data might indicate that with delta we are just going more effective sampling. Or it could be that with vaxx there is now just a longer lag between cases and morbidity in susceptible people, especially if we bin the mortality data by age or other co-morbities. How much protection are the most susceptible segments of the population getting? Stuff like that. Everyone's really tired of this but we're just now starting to get a look at what the vaccines might be doing out there in the real world.

Best case scenario would be that the most effective vaccines not only save peoples lives but also substantially lower the amount of virus produced during an infection.
 
By which you mean an adaptive (ie making antibodies) response to Cov-2 acquired through infection?

Or do you mean natural immunity as in a broad conception of innate immunity, encompassing all the processes that prevent healthy people from getting sick in the first place. The interconnection between physical/mental vitality affecting a host of processes like complement, interferon, endogenous RNA viral genome chopping stuff, etc?
Yes.
 
I think all three examples shown are ≥50% 18 and older at least one pop. So if we get past the expected lag between cases and deaths and they still appear uncoupled its really good news, especially since a lot, if not most, cases will be delta. Anybody know of any equivalent recent spike data for a low vax country?
Like Los Angeles?
 
Now compare the above charts vs Russia. They either have a bad vaccine, low vaccination rates, or both.

Either way we see the rise in cases ARE corresponding with a big rise in deaths.

We are not seeing this in the west with better vaccines and high vaccination rates. I believe the concern over the delta variant is overblown based on what we are seeing so far.

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The virus doesn't care what you believe.
 

In an acute respiratory virus epidemic, natural immunity as general health throughout the population determines how many and whom in the population is the most susceptible. Same thing with cold and flu. Natural immunity as adaptive immunity to prior infection rather than vaxx is likely a big chunk of the adaptive immunity that's out there. So what's being overlooked or not considered? Peeks behind the curtain. Is this a herd immunity thing?
 
The last 10 seconds were the best, so feel free to skip ahead.

Fauci was, as usual, candid and forthright. Paul was, as usual, a bully.
Fauci's game was to keep insisting that there was no proof he specifically funded the covid-19 creation itself -- while ignoring Paul's point that he had previously denied funding any gain of function research at Wuhan, which now is proven to be a lie.
 
So the pattern at least fits with a substantial life protective effect in high vax Western countries although we're clearly arm chair quarterbacking with a small subset of data. Encouraging though. As the data emerges, things epidemiologists will be wondering in making policy recommendations include: so we got a mixture of people who appear to be more resistant to at least the Covid19 part of Cov-2, likely as a result of acquired immunity through previous infection, through vaxx, or both. We've also got a higher burst variant that's coming on strong. For those that test positive by PCR (which I assume largely = cases), maybe show a range of non-life threatening symptoms, what sort of viral titer are they producing? Its possible that the numbers right now could mean that the increase in viral production associated with the delta variant basically just cause people that would have been asymptomatic to now feel low level symptoms and therefore go get tested and get scored as cases, even though their lives were never in any danger. In that case the data might indicate that with delta we are just going more effective sampling. Or it could be that with vaxx there is now just a longer lag between cases and morbidity in susceptible people, especially if we bin the mortality data by age or other co-morbities. How much protection are the most susceptible segments of the population getting? Stuff like that. Everyone's really tired of this but we're just now starting to get a look at what the vaccines might be doing out there in the real world.

Best case scenario would be that the most effective vaccines not only save peoples lives but also substantially lower the amount of virus produced during an infection.

Part of the issue with the testing, though, is that there is now a disconnect. Certain people are being mandatorily tested even if asymptomatic: hollywood movie sets, some schools, some colleges, some fire and police, the military, government officials, hospital admits. Certain asymptomatics are being referred to testing, for example if they've been exposed to a known case. But on the other end, because the virus is less severe if you are vaccinated or asymptomatic, we might be missing quite a few cases (since if someone just has the sniffles they might not get tested thinking they just have a cold). It's going to distort the numbers on both ends making cases an unreliable measure of what's happening.. Maybe positivity would give a better picture, but it's still being distorted by the asymptomatics....it being better to know who actually develops illness, and among those showing illness what percentage is COVID out there right now among the vaxxed .v. nonvaxxed
 
So the pattern at least fits with a substantial life protective effect in high vax Western countries although we're clearly arm chair quarterbacking with a small subset of data. Encouraging though. As the data emerges, things epidemiologists will be wondering in making policy recommendations include: so we got a mixture of people who appear to be more resistant to at least the Covid19 part of Cov-2, likely as a result of acquired immunity through previous infection, through vaxx, or both. We've also got a higher burst variant that's coming on strong. For those that test positive by PCR (which I assume largely = cases), maybe show a range of non-life threatening symptoms, what sort of viral titer are they producing? Its possible that the numbers right now could mean that the increase in viral production associated with the delta variant basically just cause people that would have been asymptomatic to now feel low level symptoms and therefore go get tested and get scored as cases, even though their lives were never in any danger. In that case the data might indicate that with delta we are just going more effective sampling. Or it could be that with vaxx there is now just a longer lag between cases and morbidity in susceptible people, especially if we bin the mortality data by age or other co-morbities. How much protection are the most susceptible segments of the population getting? Stuff like that. Everyone's really tired of this but we're just now starting to get a look at what the vaccines might be doing out there in the real world.

Best case scenario would be that the most effective vaccines not only save peoples lives but also substantially lower the amount of virus produced during an infection.
You should be able to look at the rate of increase in places with very high vax rates. Pick places with so many vaccinations that you’d expect some herd immunity.

If those places have a high rate of case growth, then it may be that Delta can spread though the vaccinated population.

Just looked at Vermont, Massachusetts, and San Francisco. All three have cases doubling in 1 week or less. So, either they have a VERY social anti-vax minority, or Delta is spreading through the vax majority. (though perhaps not bothering them much as it moves about.)
 
Fauci's game was to keep insisting that there was no proof he specifically funded the covid-19 creation itself -- while ignoring Paul's point that he had previously denied funding any gain of function research at Wuhan, which now is proven to be a lie.
I'm pretty sure Fauci got distracted from the gain of function because Paul said he was responsible for 4M deaths and that caught his attention. Paul then backed off that and went back to gain of function, while Fauci was still caught up in refuting the accusation that he was complicit in the deaths of 4M people.

On balance, I kinda think I might be more inclined to deal with the 4M death accusation in a limited time frame, than the gain of function one, but maybe others would ignore that.

I do think the gain of function defense he had seemed weak (qualified people up and down the chain all agreed it wasn't) vs Paul's definition and reading of what happened. Then again, I'm not qualified to read the report or make the assessment. Bottom line is that the US government (among others) funds research into all manner of things, many of them dangerous and deadly. We just don't want to know unless they get out. All this funding comes from ... Congress.
 
I'm pretty sure Fauci got distracted from the gain of function because Paul said he was responsible for 4M deaths and that caught his attention.
No that actually refers to testimony he had some time before....ie another date.

Since that time info came out showing there was in fact funding paid that went to the Wuhan lab.

So his story has changed.
 
No that actually refers to testimony he had some time before....ie another date.

Since that time info came out showing there was in fact funding paid that went to the Wuhan lab.

So his story has changed.
I'm not particularly defending Fauci, and as I said, I thought his defense was weak, i.e. qualified people said it wasn't. You could say he dealt with it and moved on to the far more egregious accusation by Paul that he was complicit in the deaths of 4M people. Paul shouldn't have said that and just stuck to the gain of function.

Let's be honest, if you take Paul's apparent argumentative thread on the 4M dead and Fauci or whoever approved the spend as being responsible, then you could surely say that Congress actually approved the spend, so the House and Senate are responsible for 4M dead. Throw in the fact that Congress has various oversight committees and the ability to review what is being spent, and they have full power over the purse strings, including these. Add both Obama and Trump who would have signed off on the spend and you've gone all the way to the top.

I'm good with that.
 
I'm not particularly defending Fauci, and as I said, I thought his defense was weak, i.e. qualified people said it wasn't. You could say he dealt with it and moved on to the far more egregious accusation by Paul that he was complicit in the deaths of 4M people. Paul shouldn't have said that and just stuck to the gain of function.

Let's be honest, if you take Paul's apparent argumentative thread on the 4M dead and Fauci or whoever approved the spend as being responsible, then you could surely say that Congress actually approved the spend, so the House and Senate are responsible for 4M dead. Throw in the fact that Congress has various oversight committees and the ability to review what is being spent, and they have full power over the purse strings, including these. Add both Obama and Trump who would have signed off on the spend and you've gone all the way to the top.

I'm good with that.
Neither obama nor trump would have reviewed the level of detail in the budget for a grant to some third party (checked to see what the third party was and what it did) and line itemed it (us presidents do not have a line item power). They are both responsible only in a buck stops here sort of way (as is Biden to the extent he hasn’t fired fauci for it). Congress is a little more true since as you say they have oversight power…but they’ve surrendered a lot of that detail oversight to the executive over the years (hence recent flurries or executive orders).
 
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