Hüsker Dü
DA
Bottom line trump lied people died you can’t negotiate that away.
Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
- Start date
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Sad that so many people have to live under this type of rule.
www.cnn.com
China’s truthtellers: The people who shared details of the Covid-19 pandemic that Beijing left out
Doctors and journalists tried to raise the alarm in the early days of the pandemic. A year on, many have been silenced
www.cnn.com
Desert Hound
DA
It.is a dictatorship. And many people/countries excuse this and line up to do biz with them.Sad that so many people have to live under this type of rule.
China’s truthtellers: The people who shared details of the Covid-19 pandemic that Beijing left out
Doctors and journalists tried to raise the alarm in the early days of the pandemic. A year on, many have been silenced
Cases are rising again in South America. Brazil Argentina Chile Peru have all had slight turn ups. India too. Some of these nations have been hit in prior waves (despite rigorous lockdowns) very hard. The question the talking heads are discussing is if this is some kind of seasonal effect or is it the variants at work. Re seasonality though there has been no upturn in either Australia (despite a relaxing of lockdowns) or South Africa (despite the variant) but both may be too far south yet to feel the seasonal effects. That sets up an awful scenario considering vaccine rollout in South America has been even more of s show then Europe. Economically South America is on its knees and a third wave would be just devastating. Attended a talk on Thursday predicting the us, given likely approvals for 2 more vaccines coming down the pike and the vaccine refusal rate, likely faces a vaccine glut by may. May need to donate some of that to South America before it goes bad.
In Europe the plateau effect has been hitting Scandinavia, particularly Norway which up to now had escaped the worst of things. There are also some signs some other countries may have hit a plateau.
In Europe the plateau effect has been hitting Scandinavia, particularly Norway which up to now had escaped the worst of things. There are also some signs some other countries may have hit a plateau.
That's your response? Weak. When you can finally admit that both sides (because you have sides) are wrong then you will finally demonstrate adulthood. trump lied, hc lied, susan rice lied, lied. I can keep going, holder lied. in each of these cases, US Citizens were murdered because of lies. It's what politicians do. When you are smitten to one side, you ignore your own lies and highlight others. Pathetic state of being.
But I get it, trump is your boogey man. At some point it (whatever the "it" flavor of the day it) will no longer be trump's fault, then what? I'm sure another boogey man will be picked.
Happy, where two fight, no one is right. I see that in my own life and how I wanted to be right all the time. That was wrong of me. I went on a few rants and rambles on here that has made some hate me. I want love Happy, not hate. I'm doing my part starting today. I see how wrong I was. Today, I'm just happy that the kids are seeing hope for sports and school
Glitterhater
SILVER ELITE
Honest question- does anyone actually believe ANY politician? Left or Right? I think you need to be a professional liar to be in politics.
Glitterhater
SILVER ELITE
Am I allowed to ask what talk you attended/listened to? If you can't share, no worries.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
4 weeks down, 2-10 to go. We did see a slight bump up this week. However, I'm feeling that the actual increase is due to the storm in TX pushing tests out making the week starting at 2/14 artificially low and pushing those tests later making the following week higher. Either way, we are flattening out which is not ideal. Next week we should be removed from the effect of that storm on testing.
Texas
US
Storm definitely threw a monkey wrench into the data.
But the storm doesn’t explain the drift in sequencing results. Nor does the storm explain the level spot in national numbers the last 2 weeks. Or the fact that other countries with high past caseloads (like Brazil) are also seeing an increase.
The simplest explanation for all three is that some variants have a higher transmissibility than others. The same behavior which leads to Rt=0.8 for vanilla covid may mean Rt=1.1 or 1.2 for some of the new variants. (transmission is higher by 35-45% for the UK one.)
So, it isn't the storm. It's the variant. And, if that is correct, the national numbers will go back up over the next 3-4 weeks. (Then drop, as total immunity gets high enough to offset the higher transmissibility.)
Which means this comment is in the correct thread.
But the storm doesn’t explain the drift in sequencing results. Nor does the storm explain the level spot in national numbers the last 2 weeks. Or the fact that other countries with high past caseloads (like Brazil) are also seeing an increase.
The simplest explanation for all three is that some variants have a higher transmissibility than others. The same behavior which leads to Rt=0.8 for vanilla covid may mean Rt=1.1 or 1.2 for some of the new variants. (transmission is higher by 35-45% for the UK one.)
So, it isn't the storm. It's the variant. And, if that is correct, the national numbers will go back up over the next 3-4 weeks. (Then drop, as total immunity gets high enough to offset the higher transmissibility.)
Which means this comment is in the correct thread.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Specifically, I stated, "the actual increase is due to the storm". I believe the numbers do show that it dropped "artificially" low for a week so when testing resumed, many positives that would have counted earlier got counted later and that's why there was an actual rise. I also state, "Either way, we are flattening out which is not ideal." So, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if the variants are playing a part in that. I never said they weren't.
This is in the Bad News Thread because of the prediction of a Biden "advisor".
Fair enough.
The question is whether this is a temporary flat on the way down, or the flat spot before it turns up.
We will know in a few weeks, I guess.
Osterholm says it's the flat before another, larger mountain, but I don't quite follow his numbers on that. ( Not that I have any real qualifications. Just sport for me. )
Yeah can’t sorry. But the presentation was by some big name medical reporters talking vaccines.
The monkey wrench in this is that South Africa despite having what’s been reported as the worst of the variants isn’t exhibiting the same behavior (yet). I agree that the most likely explanation of what happening is the variants. But it also doesn’t explain why all Scandinavia is behaving the same. There’s another factor here we aren’t fully understanding (maybe spring/fall season affects but who knows).
Ps the reason I bring up Norway’s is because the Norwegian borders have been closed through February.
Who do they work for?
Norway, Jan 30 --
Norway to gradually ease capital's COVID-19 lockdown from February 3
Norway to gradually ease capital's COVID-19 lockdown from February 3
The Norwegian government will gradually loosen the capital region's coronavirus lockdown, allowing some shops and recreational activities to reopen from Feb. 3 onwards, Health Minister Bent Hoeie said on Saturday.
www.reuters.com
Norway, Feb 28 --
Norway's capital tightens lockdown to fight faster virus spread
Norway's capital tightens lockdown to fight faster virus spread
Norway's capital Oslo will tighten lockdown measures to combat a sharp rise in coronavirus infections linked to a more contagious variant, the city's governing mayor said on Sunday.
www.reuters.com
How so? SA had a large mid winter outbreak in July/August, and a second outbreak when the SA variant hit them in January.
Seems completely consistent with a high transmissibility SA variant.
It is the same behavior, it just hit them early, and did not come on top of a winter Christmas surge.
Agree but it requires some scary assumptions: that the South Africa variant was an early variant which crowded out other variants in sa leading to the dec surge, that the infection rates are much higher than testing indicates (plausible given it’s a 3rd world country) and that so many people have been infected by the new variant (including those who had the prior variants because prior immunity is imperfect) that they are now close to herd immunity. It would be a trifecta of awfulness and (is the seasonal variance isn’t holding up due to this new variant) awful news for our summer. The only decent news then would be it’s not much deadlier seeing sa hasn’t had a wave of death on par with say Italy at the beginning of the pandemic, despite being close to herd immunity. I’m skeptical of this scenario but I agree it’s possible
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
I think we'd likely be looking at another significant wave if it wasn't for the vaccine. It wouldn't surprise me to see a relatively small mountain. However, 3 weeks from now we are looking at 20% vaccinated another 30% who haven't been vaccinated who already had it and we'll be vaccinating about 1% / day. I just don't see where the big mountain gets all its bodies.