I thought the seasonality was the most interesting. Peru and Brazil have the same results despite very different lockdown policies (Peru actually a little bit worse). It means unless we are vastly underestimating immunity, the northern part of the US (including NorCal) are in for a very bad winter if they don't roll out the vaccine to at least health care workers December. For us it means under the California metrics, schools may reopen briefly only to have them close again if all things otherwise remain the same.The "casedemic" was interesting as well. I hadn't previously seen anything regarding that.
Why would you? These kids aren't living in a bubble, they go out to the grocery store and infect someone else, that's community spread. The virus doesn't care who it infects.As the possibility of a return to a more restrictive tier looms over San Diego County, local leaders are asking the state to remove San Diego State University’s COVID-19 case numbers from the county’s total.www.nbcsandiego.com
Hawaii is not well-positioned to withstand an influx of the infection, but people have to eat, right? Zero good "options" for them.In a sign of how absurdist anti-COVID regs have become, Hawaii has approved bubble quarantines in certain resort hotels. Now, if you go to Hawaii, you don't have to be locked into your room for 14 days. Instead, they can lock and ankle monitor on you to make sure you don't leave the resort and you are free to wander so long as you stay on resort property. I'm sure a ton of tourists will flock to be ankle braceleted. Who hasn't fantasized about having the prisoner experience after all? Meanwhile, it does very little for stopping community spread because workers still have to come in to serve the cocktails poolside, man the restaurants, open the stores on property. Science!
Given the pattern emerging in Europe, it's becoming pretty clear seasonality plays a huge role. If true, WA and OR will be the epicenter of a storm this coming winter.Hawaii is not well-positioned to withstand an influx of the infection, but people have to eat, right? Zero good "options" for them.
In terms of the vaccine, my impression is that they need to get it to the states with the low seroprevalence ASAP as it will make a bigger overall impact there. If immunity for those infected holds, there's at least a chance that the areas already hit pretty hard won't have another big outbreak. HI would be my number one target in the US as they get so many visitors from all over and they have had relatively few infections. WA and OR also appear to be unusually low and WA gets a pretty fair number of international visitors.
What is happening is a couple of things...not necessarily in order of importance.In a sign of how absurdist anti-COVID regs have become, Hawaii has approved bubble quarantines in certain resort hotels. Now, if you go to Hawaii, you don't have to be locked into your room for 14 days.
But in the mean time governments will continue to punish the least powerful, the kids, who are also the most vulnerable and possibly the least likely to spread, because the kids don't vote and their parents don't riot.What is happening is a couple of things...not necessarily in order of importance.
- The states and municipalities are taking a huge financial hit. Continuing on like this is unsustainable. They have various financial obligations that rely on tax revenue. Pensions anyone? Anaheim is pushing the state to open Disneyland again. They have taken a 100 million hit in tax revenue due to that place being closed and of course all the other businesses that live off people visiting the area.
- The virus for the VAST majority of people is not an issue.
You add those 2 things up and you start to see them open up....even if in the beginning it is the hotel bubble in Hawaii (which as you point out has a ton of locals working there).
Over time the financial pressure to just open up and live with the virus will force the hands of states, counties, etc.
It's consistent with the core of our state leadership's support in SF. SF is not a good place to raise children as "voted on" by people not raising their children in SF.But in the mean time governments will continue to punish the least powerful, the kids, who are also the most vulnerable and possibly the least likely to spread, because the kids don't vote and their parents don't riot.
Probably worth reading the rebuttal to all of this:Interesting argument...the distinguishing factor for the death rate of Norway/Denmark/Finald/Hungary v. Sweden and other west European countries seem to be the excess mortality in recent years from flu. If flu took a lot of lives, COVID didn't take as many olders. If flu didn't take a lot of lives, COVID had a lot of brush to burn.
Some good points....some points that have been discredited. He misunderstands, for example, the argument around T-cells. It's not necessarily that it prevents the virus, but that it gives resistance to the virus (so exposure--->less likely to get it, if you get it---> less likely to be serious, if you get it bad----> less likely to die). It's also a pretty good explanation for what is happening in children, which no other theory so far has been able to address....kids are highly susceptible to the flu, therefore they should be dying equally as much as old people. We know from some prison and boat experiences if you have a superspreader, up to 80% of the people on the confined space might get it. We know from Madrid that whatever is happening at the 20% barrier is very soft. But at the same time the deaths are relatively stable across Europe (he keeps bringing up the "yet" argument but we saw this in the American south which wasn't NY/NJ). So at this point it's VERY self-evident something is going on, but that something is not enough to stop the virus.Probably worth reading the rebuttal to all of this:
Germany's curve looks like LA? Do we need to look up the data?Canada, one of the last of the non-Draconian, non-island nations to have seemingly "controlled" COVID going into a second wave.. With Finland and Denmark moving into second waves that leaves the picking sparse: Norway (no mask mandate), Germany (their curve is increasingly looking like Los Angeles), South Korea, Sweden.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Wednesday that Canada is in a second wave of COVID-19 and warned the country is on the brink of a fall season that could be much worse than the spring.www.startribune.com
Look at the shape. Of course the numbers will be different. Of course the times will be different. the shapes are the same. And its werid because LA's curve looked different from even the other southern outbreaks....Germany's is looking very different from what's happening in France/Spain/UK/Denmark/Finland/Italy. It's odd.Germany's curve looks like LA? Do we need to look up the data?
We both know that, if we did, Germany's total cases per capita look nothing like LA's total cases per capita. ( LA is about 7 times as high. )
So why post the claim? It isnt true. You know it isnt true. I know it isnt true. Why make the claim?