BAD NEWS THREAD

Grace T.

PREMIER
The "casedemic" was interesting as well. I hadn't previously seen anything regarding that.
I thought the seasonality was the most interesting. Peru and Brazil have the same results despite very different lockdown policies (Peru actually a little bit worse). It means unless we are vastly underestimating immunity, the northern part of the US (including NorCal) are in for a very bad winter if they don't roll out the vaccine to at least health care workers December. For us it means under the California metrics, schools may reopen briefly only to have them close again if all things otherwise remain the same.
 

notintheface

SILVER ELITE
Why would you? These kids aren't living in a bubble, they go out to the grocery store and infect someone else, that's community spread. The virus doesn't care who it infects.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
In a sign of how absurdist anti-COVID regs have become, Hawaii has approved bubble quarantines in certain resort hotels. Now, if you go to Hawaii, you don't have to be locked into your room for 14 days. Instead, they can lock and ankle monitor on you to make sure you don't leave the resort and you are free to wander so long as you stay on resort property. I'm sure a ton of tourists will flock to be ankle braceleted. Who hasn't fantasized about having the prisoner experience after all? Meanwhile, it does very little for stopping community spread because workers still have to come in to serve the cocktails poolside, man the restaurants, open the stores on property. Science!
 
In a sign of how absurdist anti-COVID regs have become, Hawaii has approved bubble quarantines in certain resort hotels. Now, if you go to Hawaii, you don't have to be locked into your room for 14 days. Instead, they can lock and ankle monitor on you to make sure you don't leave the resort and you are free to wander so long as you stay on resort property. I'm sure a ton of tourists will flock to be ankle braceleted. Who hasn't fantasized about having the prisoner experience after all? Meanwhile, it does very little for stopping community spread because workers still have to come in to serve the cocktails poolside, man the restaurants, open the stores on property. Science!
Hawaii is not well-positioned to withstand an influx of the infection, but people have to eat, right? Zero good "options" for them.

In terms of the vaccine, my impression is that they need to get it to the states with the low seroprevalence ASAP as it will make a bigger overall impact there. If immunity for those infected holds, there's at least a chance that the areas already hit pretty hard won't have another big outbreak. HI would be my number one target in the US as they get so many visitors from all over and they have had relatively few infections. WA and OR also appear to be unusually low and WA gets a pretty fair number of international visitors.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Hawaii is not well-positioned to withstand an influx of the infection, but people have to eat, right? Zero good "options" for them.

In terms of the vaccine, my impression is that they need to get it to the states with the low seroprevalence ASAP as it will make a bigger overall impact there. If immunity for those infected holds, there's at least a chance that the areas already hit pretty hard won't have another big outbreak. HI would be my number one target in the US as they get so many visitors from all over and they have had relatively few infections. WA and OR also appear to be unusually low and WA gets a pretty fair number of international visitors.
Given the pattern emerging in Europe, it's becoming pretty clear seasonality plays a huge role. If true, WA and OR will be the epicenter of a storm this coming winter.

Madrid is increasingly showing that the 20% seroprevalence level is a soft barrier. We see the difference in what's happening in Norway/Sweden too...Norway is edging out Sweden in daily cases but they are in the same range. Spain typically kicks off the flu season since its weather pattern is unusual for Europe...Europe typically gets hit before we do. Given that, I'm not sure the NE doesn't avoid a 2nd wave.
 

Desert Hound

PREMIER
In a sign of how absurdist anti-COVID regs have become, Hawaii has approved bubble quarantines in certain resort hotels. Now, if you go to Hawaii, you don't have to be locked into your room for 14 days.
What is happening is a couple of things...not necessarily in order of importance.

- The states and municipalities are taking a huge financial hit. Continuing on like this is unsustainable. They have various financial obligations that rely on tax revenue. Pensions anyone? Anaheim is pushing the state to open Disneyland again. They have taken a 100 million hit in tax revenue due to that place being closed and of course all the other businesses that live off people visiting the area.
- The virus for the VAST majority of people is not an issue.

You add those 2 things up and you start to see them open up....even if in the beginning it is the hotel bubble in Hawaii (which as you point out has a ton of locals working there).

Over time the financial pressure to just open up and live with the virus will force the hands of states, counties, etc.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
What is happening is a couple of things...not necessarily in order of importance.

- The states and municipalities are taking a huge financial hit. Continuing on like this is unsustainable. They have various financial obligations that rely on tax revenue. Pensions anyone? Anaheim is pushing the state to open Disneyland again. They have taken a 100 million hit in tax revenue due to that place being closed and of course all the other businesses that live off people visiting the area.
- The virus for the VAST majority of people is not an issue.

You add those 2 things up and you start to see them open up....even if in the beginning it is the hotel bubble in Hawaii (which as you point out has a ton of locals working there).

Over time the financial pressure to just open up and live with the virus will force the hands of states, counties, etc.
But in the mean time governments will continue to punish the least powerful, the kids, who are also the most vulnerable and possibly the least likely to spread, because the kids don't vote and their parents don't riot.
 

Desert Hound

PREMIER
So many have said shut the bars and restaurants. They are places where the virus spreads.

We just found out the the Mayor of Nashville was hiding #s showing how few transmissions actually occurred. Stats baby.

"Tennessee Lookout reporter Nate Rau asks, “The figure you gave of 'more than 80' does lead to a natural question: If there have been over 20,000 positive cases of COVID-19 in Davidson and only 80 or so are traced to restaurants and bars, doesn’t that mean restaurants and bars aren’t a very big problem?"

 
But in the mean time governments will continue to punish the least powerful, the kids, who are also the most vulnerable and possibly the least likely to spread, because the kids don't vote and their parents don't riot.
It's consistent with the core of our state leadership's support in SF. SF is not a good place to raise children as "voted on" by people not raising their children in SF.

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NorCalDad

BRONZE
Interesting argument...the distinguishing factor for the death rate of Norway/Denmark/Finald/Hungary v. Sweden and other west European countries seem to be the excess mortality in recent years from flu. If flu took a lot of lives, COVID didn't take as many olders. If flu didn't take a lot of lives, COVID had a lot of brush to burn.

Probably worth reading the rebuttal to all of this:

 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Probably worth reading the rebuttal to all of this:

Some good points....some points that have been discredited. He misunderstands, for example, the argument around T-cells. It's not necessarily that it prevents the virus, but that it gives resistance to the virus (so exposure--->less likely to get it, if you get it---> less likely to be serious, if you get it bad----> less likely to die). It's also a pretty good explanation for what is happening in children, which no other theory so far has been able to address....kids are highly susceptible to the flu, therefore they should be dying equally as much as old people. We know from some prison and boat experiences if you have a superspreader, up to 80% of the people on the confined space might get it. We know from Madrid that whatever is happening at the 20% barrier is very soft. But at the same time the deaths are relatively stable across Europe (he keeps bringing up the "yet" argument but we saw this in the American south which wasn't NY/NJ). So at this point it's VERY self-evident something is going on, but that something is not enough to stop the virus.

The only other competing theory that's been put forward to address what's happening is that the virus is somehow mutating into something weaker. Neither of them really address this point, because there isn't really a whole lot of data to support that. Instead, it's basically an argument over what "immunity" means....one sems to think it means you never catch the virus, while the other seems to think it means some sort of natural resistance to the virus.
 

NorCalDad

BRONZE
What seems clear to me is we have a lot of evidence that kids are not transmitting covid-19 on the soccer fields, or any fields for that matter. Our three kids have been practicing three times a week since 7/13. Even more before that with side training. Some of that included scrimmaging and close contact activities prior to the 8/3 "youth sports" guidelines. There have been no issues throughout the club.

I'm actually a bigger advocate for allowing outdoor activities to resume versus getting kids back into the classrooms (I understand that comes from a place of privilege). Our club has been a godsend for our kids to interact with kids their own age in person. I worry about all the other kids out there that don't have that opportunity. This isn't coming from a "insane soccer dad" place.

I do have a friend that passed away from covid-19, so the seriousness around this isn't lost on me. It just seems that we know outdoor activities are pretty much proven to be safe especially for children. The prioritization of opening up indoor activities prior to that seems mind boggling to me.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Canada, one of the last of the non-Draconian, non-island nations to have seemingly "controlled" COVID going into a second wave.. With Finland and Denmark moving into second waves that leaves the picking sparse: Norway (no mask mandate), Germany (their curve is increasingly looking like Los Angeles), South Korea, Sweden.

 

dad4

PREMIER
Canada, one of the last of the non-Draconian, non-island nations to have seemingly "controlled" COVID going into a second wave.. With Finland and Denmark moving into second waves that leaves the picking sparse: Norway (no mask mandate), Germany (their curve is increasingly looking like Los Angeles), South Korea, Sweden.

Germany's curve looks like LA? Do we need to look up the data?

We both know that, if we did, Germany's total cases per capita look nothing like LA's total cases per capita. ( LA is about 7 times as high. )

So why post the claim? It isnt true. You know it isnt true. I know it isnt true. Why make the claim?
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Germany's curve looks like LA? Do we need to look up the data?

We both know that, if we did, Germany's total cases per capita look nothing like LA's total cases per capita. ( LA is about 7 times as high. )

So why post the claim? It isnt true. You know it isnt true. I know it isnt true. Why make the claim?
Look at the shape. Of course the numbers will be different. Of course the times will be different. the shapes are the same. And its werid because LA's curve looked different from even the other southern outbreaks....Germany's is looking very different from what's happening in France/Spain/UK/Denmark/Finland/Italy. It's odd.
 
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