BAD NEWS THREAD

dad4

PREMIER
Hey please don't put words in my mouth. You're better than that. I never said they weren't relevant. I'm open to the idea they might reduce viral loads but I'm skeptical that they'd help much except in indoor locations where you might find ill people and get stuck interacting randomly with them: grocery stores, buses and subways, schools (with the exception of younger kids where they might not transmits though more study still needs to be done), airplanes, sadly church. I've also written that we need to stop using the bandanas (which might be worse than nothing) and paper masks and focus on geting really good masks. I also think the evidence is clear they can't stop an outbreak. I'm open to the idea they help...but because the big transmissions are in private events or in the home (where people don't wear masks) or in medical settings (where there's a lot of virus potenitally) I don't think they help very much.

As to news sources, I read everything from The Nation to Breitbart. Sadly, when it comes to this topic the right leaning papers have just generally been more well thought out, though at the beginning when they were arguing this was "just the flu" I was also skeptical.
Then why the steady drip drip drip of claims that masks "dont help much"?

You know as well as I do that a 30% reduction in transmission is significant. Why constantly argue against it?
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Then why the steady drip drip drip of claims that masks "dont help much"?

You know as well as I do that a 30% reduction in transmission is significant. Why constantly argue against it?
Because I'm a truth seeker and it's become gospel that masks are the end all be all. Remember if everyone would just wear masks things would disappear?

I'm a red pill advocate. Masks are part of the solution but they lie somewhere between small-modest impact. But I think the most important thing is we need to move off the idea we have any chance of controlling this. I'd like a mask policy that is rational and makes sense: indoors only, exempt small kids, govt gets good masks. I hate that incident that happened witht the airline trying to force a 1 year old to wear a mask....that's why I speak out because stuff like that is crazy and tormenting a baby is not o.k.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Because I'm a truth seeker and it's become gospel that masks are the end all be all. Remember if everyone would just wear masks things would disappear?

I'm a red pill advocate. Masks are part of the solution but they lie somewhere between small-modest impact. But I think the most important thing is we need to move off the idea we have any chance of controlling this. I'd like a mask policy that is rational and makes sense: indoors only, exempt small kids, govt gets good masks. I hate that incident that happened witht the airline trying to force a 1 year old to wear a mask....that's why I speak out because stuff like that is crazy and tormenting a baby is not o.k.
 
The author lost my attention when he discussed the size of the virus instead of the size of the aerosol particles in which the virus travels.

He has no clue what he is talking about with particle sizes. Why would I trust his summary of someone else's study? Chances are, he does not understand it. At best, he accurately reports the studies that agree with him and ignores those that do not.

Ok. You and Grace want to be told that masks and distance are irrelevant. And you seek out anyone who will tell you what you want to hear.

I get it. Go to Breitbart or the Blaze. They will tell you what you want to hear.
In fairness to Grace, you could have mentioned the NY Times and their article about how we might be closer to herd immunity than we think. Of course, that article came out weeks after she posited the idea - to the disdain of many on this board. She followed the data and didn't let prior assumptions keep her from thinking critically.

I watched the first lecture of the MIT class based on COVID-19 (link below - 2nd lecture is also up now). Dr. Richard Young lead with a few words including stating that the complexities of COVID-19 confound the experts. So yes, we need to listen to experts, but we also need to follow the data as there is much the experts don't understand. We need to questions assumptions that are not backed by data. There is much to learn and we don't get there by assuming we know it all now. My concern is that the guidance is generally stated, "if you can't socially distance, (you must) wear a mask." The problem is that social distancing does an excellent job of protecting us, but wearing a mask may not and people tend to equate the two and believe that wearing a mask and being close is as safe as social distancing.

 

Grace T.

PREMIER
In fairness to Grace, you could have mentioned the NY Times and their article about how we might be closer to herd immunity than we think. Of course, that article came out weeks after she posited the idea - to the disdain of many on this board. She followed the data and didn't let prior assumptions keep her from thinking critically.
It's interesting both Denmark and Norway passed Sweden today in daily new cases. It's very clear at this point there's a soft barrier that slows things down at a certain point. It's also very clear, from Madrid, that barrier is pretty soft and if you stick a bunch of people on a boat with an infected person or in a prison the number infected is going to be way higher than 20%, though the vast majority will not get seriously ill (perhaps because of the cross-immunity).

Incidently my position on masks is the same as on HDQ. If we aren't sure, they should reasonably part of the solution until we know for sure otherwise....so long as we aren't seriously hurting someone (like the 1 and 3 year olds on the plane) or aren't doing stupid stuff (like free HDQ for everyone or mandatory masks outside).
 

Emma

SILVER ELITE
It's interesting both Denmark and Norway passed Sweden today in daily new cases. It's very clear at this point there's a soft barrier that slows things down at a certain point. It's also very clear, from Madrid, that barrier is pretty soft and if you stick a bunch of people on a boat with an infected person or in a prison the number infected is going to be way higher than 20%, though the vast majority will not get seriously ill (perhaps because of the cross-immunity).

Incidently my position on masks is the same as on HDQ. If we aren't sure, they should reasonably part of the solution until we know for sure otherwise....so long as we aren't seriously hurting someone (like the 1 and 3 year olds on the plane) or aren't doing stupid stuff (like free HDQ for everyone or mandatory masks outside).
Yes, use helpful precautions with common sense. Don't take anything to an extreme unless you're donating money to me.
 

Copa9

GOLD
I’ll stick to what the Scientists are telling me, wasn’t that your suggestion a while back?

Do you ever get tired of trying to counter my posts and being wrong?

PS - I still know more kids (not know of, know) that have died from Over Dose and being hit by cars in the past 4 months than those who have had any type of complication from Covid. Still care to debate that one?
Just saw your post. The reason I mentioned it was because I was surprised. It was my dentist who told me about the young man. He lives in Newport and knows the family. That's all. Take it or leave it, an anecdotal story.
 

Copa9

GOLD
The difference is that the AAP and CDC comments don’t make it pass the bull shit test this time. In what other context does the CDC recommend anyone maintain 150 daily indoor contacts?

I am convinced that there is a high social cost to keeping kids out of school.

I am also convinced that maintaining 150 daily indoor contacts is a bad idea.

If you gave me an option of high school in stable 20 person cohorts, I’d take it.

Unfortunately, the only options you ( or the school districts ) give are:
__1 complete closure, or
__2 same schedule as we always do.

Neither makes any sense. Even your CDC article was comparing the same two bad options, claiming option 2 must be good because option 1 really stinks.
So do you think it is possible that all twenty student cohorts take exactly the same subjects? One high school teacher can not teach AP Chem, Honors English, AP Euro History, Spanish 3, PE, and Algebra 2 so they would have to at the minimum rotate to different teacher. Repeat for 2,400 students at the school. A nightmare. Not possible. So the teacher will see how many different cohort groups in a day? Most of our local high schools are doing a hybrid program, two days in school the rest on line. That cuts the class size at least in half. Probably the best we can do for now unless you are at a private expensive school.
 

dad4

PREMIER
So do you think it is possible that all twenty student cohorts take exactly the same subjects? One high school teacher can not teach AP Chem, Honors English, AP Euro History, Spanish 3, PE, and Algebra 2 so they would have to at the minimum rotate to different teacher. Repeat for 2,400 students at the school. A nightmare. Not possible. So the teacher will see how many different cohort groups in a day? Most of our local high schools are doing a hybrid program, two days in school the rest on line. That cuts the class size at least in half. Probably the best we can do for now unless you are at a private expensive school.
Who said all students get to pick all their classes independently of each other? Or that all classes are in person?

If your goal is to have math and english in person, you can do that with one teacher per cohort. Just group by math level, and pick new books for English.

For most cohorts, you can add in history and a lab science - though it might not be the time period or particular science they want.

For the kid, that's a perfectly reasonable half day schedule. And, yes, I know how ugly 4 preps in 4 areas would be. I've done three more than once.

But it's better than the traditional schedule, which would be speed dating for covid.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Interesting. Sweden is seeing a rise in respiratory viruses, but COVID is still holding steady. Still on par with Norway and Denmark's cases (Denmark on a rising curve will soon regularly exceed Sweden's numbers). So something is definitely holding the COVID steady. But Madrid is definitely in the middle of a second spike despite it's near 20% seroprevalence (though the surrounding areas of Castille and La Mancha definitely aren't being hit as hard as the first).

 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Interesting but not a great study. Can't really draw definitive conclusions from it. But thought provoking. Biggest counter against it is if true, Los Angeles should be seeing a much steeper drop off and places like the OC and SD a slower drop off notwithstanding population density

 

dad4

PREMIER
Interesting but not a great study. Can't really draw definitive conclusions from it. But thought provoking. Biggest counter against it is if true, Los Angeles should be seeing a much steeper drop off and places like the OC and SD a slower drop off notwithstanding population density

Not sure I follow you on that.

If LA had some covid early, numbers were still very small compared to the summer outbreak. Less than 1% of total cases so far, by any estimate.

A small number of December cases would not change overall case numbers enough to result in "a much bigger dropoff".
 
Interesting but not a great study. Can't really draw definitive conclusions from it. But thought provoking. Biggest counter against it is if true, Los Angeles should be seeing a much steeper drop off and places like the OC and SD a slower drop off notwithstanding population density

Anecdotally, I have heard numerous people associated with the soccer team talk about a bad "respiratory cold" they got in January. Several suspected COVID, but thus far none tested positive for antibodies.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Not sure I follow you on that.

If LA had some covid early, numbers were still very small compared to the summer outbreak. Less than 1% of total cases so far, by any estimate.

A small number of December cases would not change overall case numbers enough to result in "a much bigger dropoff".
My skepticism is that if the blip in December was wide enough to be noticed by the study then, given what we know about curve accelerations (particularly from the recent cases in Australia and NZ where they accelerated from near 0 and now have widespread testing in place unlike March), by March Los Angeles should have been spiking as bad as NYC and our seroprevalence should be much higher than it is. It could be that: a) Maybe AUS/NZ really weren't near zero and it was much more widespread than thought, b) maybe there's something about the virus and it periodically enters dormant periods, c) maybe there's something that distinguishes Los Angeles from NY in February, d) maybe there's a widespread group that doesn't develop antibodies (my son seemed to have but not me despite having the same illness)...... among other explanations too.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
So Ventura County is getting really frustrated by the states new metrics. They are at 8 cases per 100,000 daily and need to be at 7. The reason for the higher number is the county jail. 69 inmates tested positive over the last week. The state had assured the counties the jail system would not be used against them (since it would discourage the transfer of prisoners into the county from other overcrowded facilities) but no the state welched on that assurance. So Ventura will remain purple and schools remain closed for time being. Meanwhile, COVID hospitalizations are at 46, the lowest number since the last week of May.
 

Desert Hound

PREMIER
Interesting argument...the distinguishing factor for the death rate of Norway/Denmark/Finald/Hungary v. Sweden and other west European countries seem to be the excess mortality in recent years from flu. If flu took a lot of lives, COVID didn't take as many olders. If flu didn't take a lot of lives, COVID had a lot of brush to burn.

That is a very interesting video. Very worth the watch. @dad4

Thanks for sharing.
 
Interesting argument...the distinguishing factor for the death rate of Norway/Denmark/Finald/Hungary v. Sweden and other west European countries seem to be the excess mortality in recent years from flu. If flu took a lot of lives, COVID didn't take as many olders. If flu didn't take a lot of lives, COVID had a lot of brush to burn.

The "casedemic" was interesting as well. I hadn't previously seen anything regarding that.
 
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