Anticipating the effects on youth soccer of a long layoff

Dargle

SILVER ELITE
Here are some potential changes if the social isolation policies continue into the summer and there is a risk of the virus flaring up (especially given the possibility it could be seasonal) :

1. With the absence of summer tournaments and coaches moving on to find stable employment, club consolidation will increase
2. Cal South will either create a mid-season transfer window or there will be a lot of mid-season roster additions since players may either miss out on a very abbreviated pre-season tryout period or there may be hesitance before parents allow players back out on the field. Teams that took anyone they could just to field a team may breakup before the end of the season. Brackets will be a mess because player departures will affect competitive balance.
3. Travel will be heavily curtailed. Teams and parents won't want to make travel plans too far in advance for fear that they could lose their $ or get stuck somewhere. There also may be areas that remain hot spots longer than others, which will restrict inbound and outbound travel.
4. Showcases may be significantly reduced because of the cost and because there will be renewed emphasis on video and Zoom methods of talking to coaches/recruits
5. DA and ECNL may be forced to reorganize to provide more local circuit competition to avoid travel. DA will continue to aggressively recruit players throughout the fall from club rosters since they won't have had the time to have a proper tryout season (and they aren't subject to any transfer freeze, if it still existed).
6. As coaches become more comfortable with remote learning/training technologies, geographical barriers to joining teams and holding practices may lessen. You may see coaches in DA, who are supposed to do a 4th practice that could include a film session, using Zoom or Google Classroom to do it and thereby eliminate one day of travel to practice. Clubs will use it for their third day of practice to provide film or fitness sessions, which reduces the demand on field space.
7. More scrimmages or round robins and fewer tournaments because of the inability to plan too far ahead.
8. USYNT/ODP/IOD2 will have to move to more local market camps rather than attempting to bring players from all across the country. Cal South Pro+ will be in particular trouble if it loses all of its revenues from summer camps.
9. Players who come out of the layoffs in the best shape/form will take a big step ahead of their peers and those who weren't able to use this period productively may never catch up.
10. Youth soccer organizations at the USYSA/US Club/USSF may be forced to reorganize because of the loss of revenues. The alphabet soup of leagues may diminish.
 

outside!

PREMIER
10. Youth soccer organizations at the USYSA/US Club/USSF may be forced to reorganize because of the loss of revenues. The alphabet soup of leagues may diminish.
One can only hope, but I doubt it. Everyone will be scrambling to protect their monopoly and money stream.
 
Very unlikely there will be any team soccer through the summer. We will not still be isolated in houses, but still impossible to practice/play under social distance requirements (6ft away). NPSL just cancelled their season, look for the same from NWSL and MLS. And if the pros aren't playing, no way kids will be. Maybe Aug 1 if lucky.
 
Staying in shape is key. My dd lays in her bed all day now because Laguna is on lock down. Atrophy has set in now. Too much ice cream and online school and online life. It's the new way for our kids to live. Our parks and Beaches are closed. The economy in LB has stopped. Hopefully the city will allow the locals some beach play time and walks on our trails soon :)
 
Fortunately, I know coaches that are pushing fitness programs and challenging their players - players are working out regularly and practicing skills. It is boring to be doing this solo but those that are driven will keep it up
 
Fortunately, I know coaches that are pushing fitness programs and challenging their players - players are working out regularly and practicing skills. It is boring to be doing this solo but those that are driven will keep it up
Lots of kids are still training on their own. But that’s not nearly the same as playing at game speed.
Look at NFL athletes who “hold out” for part of training camp or for a few games. They are training on their own. Might even be stronger and faster than they would be at training camp. But they don’t get thrown in to playing every down the day they end their hold out.
 

Kante

GOLD
For what it's worth. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the state of Washington formed the IHME, which has developed a model to show when things w/ the Corona Virus likely will peak and then trail off in CA and other states.

Having said that, there's a pretty wide margin of error included in the model, but eyeballing their forecasts, IHME seems to be pretty close to actuals.
Short version is that IMHE says CA will peak at their worst around the last week of April and then trail down to 0 in July.


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what happens when the virus comes back in November? Another National shut down?
Great question. Were stuck at home for now and all we can do is argue about what ifs in soccer for now. What if we can all go outside by May? What if the GDA is no more? What if SoCal Blues goes all in GDA?
 

Giesbock

SILVER
In 1999, Brandy Chastain introduced the world to the 1st gen sports bra. Maybe Nike is already working on a super cool competition grade face mask!
 
For what it's worth. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the state of Washington formed the IHME, which has developed a model to show when things w/ the Corona Virus likely will peak and then trail off in CA and other states.

Having said that, there's a pretty wide margin of error included in the model, but eyeballing their forecasts, IHME seems to be pretty close to actuals.
Short version is that IMHE says CA will peak at their worst around the last week of April and then trail down to 0 in July.


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The data from the time this was first posted (data through March 24) is good news for CA. It now has data through March 29 and there are a few days (looks like 3 days to me) of "flattening" for the daily number of deaths in the CA data. It may be significant that we are now 2 weeks into social distancing. The next few days to a week should let us know if it made a significant impact on the expected curve. The only data I still have from the 24th projection is for the US and it indicates overall maximum daily deaths down 3% which isn't too significant (peak day at 2271 down from 2341).
 

ChrisD

SILVER
Stay Sharp, my son and I play basketball about 2 - times a day, one on one to 21, horse and then around the world , great little 30 minute sessions, bonding and cardio. And we've been riding the bike a lot , very important to keep loose. Enjoy the down time and let the kids bodies heal for once..
 
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