And away we go...Liverpool posts June 6 and 7 tryout dates.

Frank

GOLD
And, how many people died in China? Maybe 4,600 out of a population of 1.4 billion. They certainly contained the virus. South Korea has a population of about 52 million and had under 300 deaths from Covid-19. It doesn't surprise me they are starting to play baseball again. The US has had over 75,000 deaths from covid-19 and the number is still climbing.
As always, if you are scared of transmitting stay home. Let the rest of us get on with our lives to the best of our ability. In OC, there have been ~55 deaths in 3.3M people. I'll take my chances and I do every day. I applaud LFC for trying to get going. Whether it happens or not we will see. At least they drew a line in the sand and are trying to start their business again.
 

chiefs

SILVER ELITE
I put Surf Cup in this category of tone deafness and wishful thinking too. Already asking for club's tournament registration fees for end of July. I don't see how a contact sport in a tournament setting can be safely run in 2-3 months. Individual sports---swimming, tennis, golf, track, etc.---much more likely.
What are you talking about? Last I looked, the death rate of under 18 is ZERO....the symptomatic of kids is close to zero....people have the right obviously to just stay at home.
 
What are you talking about? Last I looked, the death rate of under 18 is ZERO....the symptomatic of kids is close to zero....people have the right obviously to just stay at home.
I hope they have tryouts and everything go’s well and we can all move on.

The problem is that the kids can be carriers and bring it home to adults or Grandparents.

Sweden decided to not have so many restrictions and they are not doing as well as they originally assumed.
 

Copa9

SILVER ELITE
As always, if you are scared of transmitting stay home. Let the rest of us get on with our lives to the best of our ability. In OC, there have been ~55 deaths in 3.3M people. I'll take my chances and I do every day. I applaud LFC for trying to get going. Whether it happens or not we will see. At least they drew a line in the sand and are trying to start their business again.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
 

Copa9

SILVER ELITE
At least the early data would seem to support this. There's some controversy over the studies, but it seems its harder for children to spread to each other or parents (we won't know for sure until the data from the European schools that are reopening emerges). It may be because they carry a lower viral load. But kids can definitely get it from adults and while masks on adults might reduce particle spread, given the resistance in some sectors to wearing masks, and given we knowing yelling can project the virus, I think the health authorities will eventually agree with you.
European schools have smaller class sizes and larger rooms, they are trying hard to space desks apart. Have you seen the classrooms in Orange County? I suppose you could have split sessions. Eleven students from 7:30 - 10:30, eleven students from 11:00 - 2:00, one hour off for lunch for teachers (they will need it), then 3:00 - 6:00 for the last ten or eleven students. Classrooms have to be disinfected between groups as well. That could work. Or I guess you could start at 7:00 and end at 5:30. Scheduling classes and placements would be a nightmare especially if there are siblings at the same school, it is already time consuming. Tough for elementary kids and their parents.
 

Messi>CR7

SILVER ELITE
Daily new cases in Korea:
1588905224316.png

Daily new cases in Germany: (Bundesliga supposedly will start on May 15)
1588905259461.png

Daily new cases in US:
1588905308602.png

Korea and Germany started their various measures to combat Covid-19 weeks ahead of us. I hope by the time we do open up for soccer, our curve would look more like theirs. If not, we all have a decision to make.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
European schools have smaller class sizes and larger rooms, they are trying hard to space desks apart. Have you seen the classrooms in Orange County? I suppose you could have split sessions. Eleven students from 7:30 - 10:30, eleven students from 11:00 - 2:00, one hour off for lunch for teachers (they will need it), then 3:00 - 6:00 for the last ten or eleven students. Classrooms have to be disinfected between groups as well. That could work. Or I guess you could start at 7:00 and end at 5:30. Scheduling classes and placements would be a nightmare especially if there are siblings at the same school, it is already time consuming. Tough for elementary kids and their parents.
Meh. The spacing issue is being shown to not help very much. Schools will rise and fall on how transmissible it is with kids. The teachers union (short on staff due to elderly prob needing to stay home) won't support a 3 block schedule. As goes the schools, so does fall soccer.

Korea and Germany started their various measures to combat Covid-19 weeks ahead of us. I hope by the time we do open up for soccer, our curve would look more like theirs. If not, we all have a decision to make.
-Korea is effectively an island, like Taiwan, New Zealand, Iceland, and Australia (which may or may not have it under control). The thing about these islands is: a. they were outside the ideal weather zone of transmission when it first hit, b. they got lucky (either no superspreader event or one they were able to identify), c. they have fixed borders (neither we nor Germany can control our very large borders), and d. they had testing ready to go relative to the size of the outbreak.
-The US unfortunately: a. has different weather zones (NY was in the ideal when it hit, Seattle escaped by the skin of its teeth), b. was not lucky (early NY and California outbreaks before we were aware of an outbreak), c. has a very long southern and northern border which the D's will never allow a hard shut and also has interstate travel (where NY seeded outbreaks elsewhere) ad d. was late in the testing game and e. even if we had made the dates we are large and have a huge population and would have needed more testing than early curves of manufacturing allowed To make test and trace work you got to catch it early otherwise its impossible to put the genii back in the bottle. It's like a fire...you put it out early enough and you can contain it, otherwise it's going to go out of control. But you need all 4 to work if you are going to catch it or you wind up like Japan.
-Germany a. was outside the ideal weather zone of transmission, b. got lucky (few superspreader events), and d. had good test and trace available. But they've also got a very slow burn going...they haven't completely tamped down like the islands and won't be able to due to their long border. They, like much of the EU, have settled on a controlled burn strategy...let it burn but have test and trace in place to catch hot spots.
-The US curve is being thrown of by its large size. NYC's curve looks like Italy or Spain. California is having a hard time tamping it down but our outbreak curve is being thrown by some outbreaks in prisons and meat packing plants. The southwest is rising (maybe because of their reliance on aircon). Arkansas looks like Austria. Hawaii looks like NZ but we'll see how long they can keep the tourist industry shut down.
-Canada is the counterpoint. Universal health care, small pop, test and trace early. But they were outside of the ideal weather band and are now moving into it. On the eastern cities, they are now reaching peak and have had a hard time hitting peak despite locking down (better than many US areas). They haven't been helped by some seeding from the US and a less agressive travel ban from Europe/China early on.
 

JumboJack

SILVER
I hope they have tryouts and everything go’s well and we can all move on.

The problem is that the kids can be carriers and bring it home to adults or Grandparents.

Sweden decided to not have so many restrictions and they are not doing as well as they originally assumed.
Then isolate them. If anyone is at a higher risk of complications from this virus then they should isolate. They should stay away from anyone that is going about their daily life as should the people that care for them. That is what should have been done from the beginning. The VAST majority of serious cases are the elderly and those with underlying conditions. Yes there have been exceptions but is that a reason to absolutely wreck the economy? Under "normal" flu seasons we don't shut down business because someone could (and will) develop complications from seasonal flu and die.
 
It's not just about isolating. You need adequate testing capabilities and volume (don't have) and tracking capabilities (don't have), and the $$ to pay for it all (don't have). If you have an event like Surf Cup, and one person...just one...tests positive, you need to be able to track all contacts that person had, test all of those people, track all the contacts that those people had and test them too (meanwhile keeping all in isolation until you get the test results back). And, have the $$ to pay for all of that work.

South Korea is a terrible comparison model for multiple reasons, most of all at this stage is the willingness their citizens have to sacrifice personal privacy rights. For example, they allow all of their contacts to be traced via cell phone, their movements tracked via video cam, credit card purchase histories,etc. Read more about it here: https://www.npr.org/2020/05/02/849535944/south-koreas-tracking-of-covid-19-patients-raises-privacy-concerns

Schools have no idea at this point whether regular classes will be in session in September--trust me, I've been in more Zoom meetings than I can count. Big youth sports gatherings are less important than school. So, if you want some clear signs that youth sports might be on a path to returning in a month or so, wait for schools to first announce a return to normalcy, not whether Bundesliga is going to play a few games in an empty stadium. And before that even, the CDC will have to change their recommendation against organized group sports and gatherings.

Going forward, just make sure you're reading/listening to opinions coming from objective folks with some insight and expertise, not those with major financial incentives to make an event happen no matter the health effects (nor a parent who has few interests beyond their kid's soccer).
 

dad4

PREMIER
Then isolate them. If anyone is at a higher risk of complications from this virus then they should isolate. They should stay away from anyone that is going about their daily life as should the people that care for them. That is what should have been done from the beginning. The VAST majority of serious cases are the elderly and those with underlying conditions. Yes there have been exceptions but is that a reason to absolutely wreck the economy? Under "normal" flu seasons we don't shut down business because someone could (and will) develop complications from seasonal flu and die.
I don’t think you can draw a neat little line with everyone over 60 on one side and everyone under 60 on the other. you’d see the virus balloon in the under 60 side, then quickly leak into the over 60 side. You’d have herd immunity at the end, but at a horrible cost.

There is some hope for reopening by changing how we work. Some combination of outdoor workspaces, working from home, and social distancing measures within indoor workspaces. Germany has done a lot with the last one.
 

mirage

GOLD
Glad to see LFCIA attempting to have tryouts in June.

The thread discussion is bit tangential now but still good in that it clearly shows how divided we are about the whole Covid-19 issue.

At the last Capo USD board meeting (what a flog-a-thon!), where they were deciding what to do with grading for the spring semester, one of the parents spoke up - who happens to be a doctor. He said, at the hospital, there were 3 Covid-19 patients. This would be a south OC hospital. What are we doing to ourselves????

Here's the daily link to Covid-19 by OC Health (https://occovid19.ochealthinfo.com/coronavirus-in-oc) and it shows through 5/7/20, cumm cases of 3,092 and death of 66. Total tested 43,351 and there are more stats including however many in each city.

What struck me is that out of population of 3.1M in the county, the positive infection is roughly 1/10 of 1% (or 0.1%) and the death rate is 0.002% of the total population. I willing to bet anything that if you kept the similar stats for ordinary flu, the numbers would be worse.

We've often point to proximity and population density for reason to have high infection rate but, I believe, there is a silent factor not being mentioned for whatever reason. That reason is that vast majority of Americans are not in shape and have lots of issues that can contribute to pre-existing conditions. Just take a look around the country. Obesity and lack of exercise by adults are staggering. Perhaps one of the reasons kids and younger adults are not affected as much is because larger percentage of them are in better shape and are far more active.

Just to be clear, my wife and I are in the 50's with parents in 80s. We have a college student and a senior who is about to start college in the fall. In other words, our views should be more swayed by all the danger hype but we also can read data and interpret it for ourselves. Its my sense that we are doing more harm by shutting down the country.

So going back to the original point, let the kids play. Make them keep preventive hygiene. The teams and parents probably should sit on both side of the sideline (like CSL) and spread out between families. Make the parents take the player temperature before games and adhere to specified rules.

Personally, I am keeping my fingers crossed that our older son gets to play his last year in college this fall. He is on a schedule to graduate after the winter quarter (very proud of him - scholar athlete all years, finishing in less than 4 years and probably will finish out with 3.7 overall GPA with BA Econ....sorry, my bragging moment!!)

We have another month prior to the tryouts and by then, we should be in Stage 3 of reopening by Newsome's description so there's a likelihood that it will happen, in my opinion anyway.....
 

Eagle33

GOLD
Glad to see LFCIA attempting to have tryouts in June.

The thread discussion is bit tangential now but still good in that it clearly shows how divided we are about the whole Covid-19 issue.

At the last Capo USD board meeting (what a flog-a-thon!), where they were deciding what to do with grading for the spring semester, one of the parents spoke up - who happens to be a doctor. He said, at the hospital, there were 3 Covid-19 patients. This would be a south OC hospital. What are we doing to ourselves????

Here's the daily link to Covid-19 by OC Health (https://occovid19.ochealthinfo.com/coronavirus-in-oc) and it shows through 5/7/20, cumm cases of 3,092 and death of 66. Total tested 43,351 and there are more stats including however many in each city.

What struck me is that out of population of 3.1M in the county, the positive infection is roughly 1/10 of 1% (or 0.1%) and the death rate is 0.002% of the total population. I willing to bet anything that if you kept the similar stats for ordinary flu, the numbers would be worse.

We've often point to proximity and population density for reason to have high infection rate but, I believe, there is a silent factor not being mentioned for whatever reason. That reason is that vast majority of Americans are not in shape and have lots of issues that can contribute to pre-existing conditions. Just take a look around the country. Obesity and lack of exercise by adults are staggering. Perhaps one of the reasons kids and younger adults are not affected as much is because larger percentage of them are in better shape and are far more active.

Just to be clear, my wife and I are in the 50's with parents in 80s. We have a college student and a senior who is about to start college in the fall. In other words, our views should be more swayed by all the danger hype but we also can read data and interpret it for ourselves. Its my sense that we are doing more harm by shutting down the country.

So going back to the original point, let the kids play. Make them keep preventive hygiene. The teams and parents probably should sit on both side of the sideline (like CSL) and spread out between families. Make the parents take the player temperature before games and adhere to specified rules.

Personally, I am keeping my fingers crossed that our older son gets to play his last year in college this fall. He is on a schedule to graduate after the winter quarter (very proud of him - scholar athlete all years, finishing in less than 4 years and probably will finish out with 3.7 overall GPA with BA Econ....sorry, my bragging moment!!)

We have another month prior to the tryouts and by then, we should be in Stage 3 of reopening by Newsome's description so there's a likelihood that it will happen, in my opinion anyway.....
I really hope we can re-open youth sports in June, but I can bet you it will not happen.
 

Messi>CR7

SILVER ELITE
Glad to see LFCIA attempting to have tryouts in June.

The thread discussion is bit tangential now but still good in that it clearly shows how divided we are about the whole Covid-19 issue.

At the last Capo USD board meeting (what a flog-a-thon!), where they were deciding what to do with grading for the spring semester, one of the parents spoke up - who happens to be a doctor. He said, at the hospital, there were 3 Covid-19 patients. This would be a south OC hospital. What are we doing to ourselves????

Here's the daily link to Covid-19 by OC Health (https://occovid19.ochealthinfo.com/coronavirus-in-oc) and it shows through 5/7/20, cumm cases of 3,092 and death of 66. Total tested 43,351 and there are more stats including however many in each city.

What struck me is that out of population of 3.1M in the county, the positive infection is roughly 1/10 of 1% (or 0.1%) and the death rate is 0.002% of the total population. I willing to bet anything that if you kept the similar stats for ordinary flu, the numbers would be worse.

We've often point to proximity and population density for reason to have high infection rate but, I believe, there is a silent factor not being mentioned for whatever reason. That reason is that vast majority of Americans are not in shape and have lots of issues that can contribute to pre-existing conditions. Just take a look around the country. Obesity and lack of exercise by adults are staggering. Perhaps one of the reasons kids and younger adults are not affected as much is because larger percentage of them are in better shape and are far more active.

Just to be clear, my wife and I are in the 50's with parents in 80s. We have a college student and a senior who is about to start college in the fall. In other words, our views should be more swayed by all the danger hype but we also can read data and interpret it for ourselves. Its my sense that we are doing more harm by shutting down the country.

So going back to the original point, let the kids play. Make them keep preventive hygiene. The teams and parents probably should sit on both side of the sideline (like CSL) and spread out between families. Make the parents take the player temperature before games and adhere to specified rules.

Personally, I am keeping my fingers crossed that our older son gets to play his last year in college this fall. He is on a schedule to graduate after the winter quarter (very proud of him - scholar athlete all years, finishing in less than 4 years and probably will finish out with 3.7 overall GPA with BA Econ....sorry, my bragging moment!!)

We have another month prior to the tryouts and by then, we should be in Stage 3 of reopening by Newsome's description so there's a likelihood that it will happen, in my opinion anyway.....
Congrats on your son. We have all earned the rights to brag when each milestone is passed.

The only part I disagree is looking at the current infection rate and determined after the fact that we did more harm by shutting down the economy. We have an acceptable infection/death rate is because we did shut down the economy.

Was it worth it? I don't know. I'm lucky enough to work from home and continue to provide. If I'm unemployed, I would want to get back to work immediately. I'm however a lot more cautious when it comes to my kids.

If we do have games in the fall, I very much look forward to not sitting next to any parents :).
 

mirage

GOLD
...The only part I disagree is looking at the current infection rate and determined after the fact that we did more harm by shutting down the economy. We have an acceptable infection/death rate is because we did shut down the economy.

Was it worth it? I don't know. I'm lucky enough to work from home and continue to provide. If I'm unemployed, I would want to get back to work immediately. I'm however a lot more cautious when it comes to my kids....
Good point. Have to agree with the statement. Shelter-in-place has worked as intended.

That said, its your follow up that I'm questioning too. Was it worth it? I don't know either. Both my wife and I are working out of our home office since mid March with no definite return date. Only a notional timeframe in June~July because everyone is saying in gradual groups.
 

Grace T.

PREMIER
Hmmmm. A growing number of kids (in the 50s in ny which is still a very small number but 3 dead; about the same in the UK) have been developing Kawasaki syndrome which they suspect is related to Covid. Most were otherwise healthy. If that trend continues it could be game over for kid sports and school resumption. Hopefully it’s just a rare autoimmune blip.
 

chiefs

SILVER ELITE
European schools have smaller class sizes and larger rooms, they are trying hard to space desks apart. Have you seen the classrooms in Orange County? I suppose you could have split sessions. Eleven students from 7:30 - 10:30, eleven students from 11:00 - 2:00, one hour off for lunch for teachers (they will need it), then 3:00 - 6:00 for the last ten or eleven students. Classrooms have to be disinfected between groups as well. That could work. Or I guess you could start at 7:00 and end at 5:30. Scheduling classes and placements would be a nightmare especially if there are siblings at the same school, it is already time consuming. Tough for elementary kids and their parents.
Which basically means Nobody knows and it’s a tremendous small percentage; it’s more sky is falling mentality or fear mongering.
 
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