2007 DA

Wow. You think Arsenal will score a goal?!?
Match last year’s total in the first game?!?
Lol
Joke...
I am curious though about Murrieta. Their Stoke City kickball style may not translate to the big pitch. That game will be interesting to me.

SDSC v Albion will be very interesting.
I’m not convinced on Strikers yet and disappointed in Surf.
I agree that LAG has weakened and think that LA Surf could draw there.
What’s with the hate on Chula Vista? 10? Wow. Savage. Lol.
 
Murrieta Surf 1-0 over Arsenal.
What I heard: Surf had 2 shots on target, both saved. Goal came off the back of an Arsenal defender's head from Surf's second of two corners. Arsenal had 10 shots on target and controlled possession. Both teams did things well.
What I know: Murrieta beat Arsenal like 8-1 to end last year... and now they only win 1-0 on an own goal. That's interesting to me...

A friend whose kid plays for Surf said it was a "smash and grab that Surf didn't deserve to win."
A friend with Arsenal said Arsenal over ran Surf but struggled to finish. Said, the encouraging thing was we [Arsenal] had a set game plan and style and were able to execute it, just couldn't finish.
That's interesting to me. I've always been a fan of Arsenal's DOC who is apparently now coaching their 07s.

LAGSD beat Nomads 4-1. LAGSD shows signs of individual skill while struggling to come together as a team. LAGSD face SDSC next week.
Nomads seemed slow and goals came easily off pressuring them high and fast or just being able to connect around them.
I think the LAGSD v. SDSC game will be a good one to watch to see if LAGSD is improving. I still like that SDSC team as the strongest San Diego team.
 
Heard Strikers beat OC Surf 1-0. I think Strikers has declined... probably because they cut my friend's kid. lol
Surf 4-0 over CV, not much can be read from that one if Chula Vista is poor. I'd like to see Strikers v Surf next week. Last year, those two were neck and neck.
 
RedDevilDad said:
Heard Strikers beat OC Surf 1-0. I think Strikers has declined... probably because they cut my friend's kid. lol
Surf 4-0 over CV, not much can be read from that one if Chula Vista is poor. I'd like to see Strikers v Surf next week. Last year, those two were neck and neck.
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Any update on LA area scores? Insight?
 
Here's predicts vs actual for this last weekend (9/7/19). As a reminder, the predicts below are an experiment based on last season's u12 data. Lots of things changed from last year. Field size. Kid size. Going to 11v1 etc. Accuracy will get better as there is more 2019-20 data. (By the way, lots of good commentary above. Very cool.)

Los Angeles:
predict: LA Galaxy 2 vs LA Surf 4 Actuals: LA Galaxy 1 vs LA Surf 3
Sounds like LAG didn't play well. Any other commentary or more details here?

predict: LAFC 2 vs TFA 2 . Actuals: LAFC 8 vs TFA 1 (thx Zacrob!)
will completely reboot algo after this one. Any commentary/details on how it went so terribly wrong for TFA?

predict: LAUFA 4 vs Pateadores 2 Actuals: LAUFA 4 vs Pateadores 4
Good on LAUFA for a solid start to season. Pats have some work to do defensively. Will be interesting to look at Pats roster vs last year as see what changed. Would have thought they would be stronger this year. Any other commentary or more details here?

predict: Legends 3 vs Ventura Fusion 2 Actuals: Legends 3 vs Ventura Fusion 2
Solid away performance by Ventura. Any other commentary or more details here?

predict: Santa Barbara SC 2 vs Real SoCal 4 Actuals: Santa Barbara SC 0 vs Real SoCal 3
Santa Barbara reverted to their mean against RSC. Also, this match confirms that Pats are not as strong as last year. Any other commentary or more details here?

San Diego
predict: Arsenal 1 vs Murrieta Surf 3. Actuals: Arsenal 0 vs Murrieta Surf 1
Looks like a decent enough game with the goal coming late in the 2nd half.

Here's wom commentary from RedDevilDad (thx!): "What I heard: Surf had 2 shots on target, both saved. Goal came off the back of an Arsenal defender's head from Surf's second of two corners. Arsenal had 10 shots on target and controlled possession. Both teams did things well.What I know: Murrieta beat Arsenal like 8-1 to end last year... and now they only win 1-0 on an own goal. That's interesting to me... A friend whose kid plays for Surf said it was a 'smash and grab that Surf didn't deserve to win. 'A friend with Arsenal said Arsenal over ran Surf but struggled to finish. Said, the encouraging thing was we [Arsenal] had a set game plan and style and were able to execute it, just couldn't finish. That's interesting to me. I've always been a fan of Arsenal's DOC who is apparently now coaching their 07s."

Agreed on yoy improvement by Arsenal being interesting. Good on them.

predict: OC Surf 1 vs Strikers 5. Actuals: OC Surf 0 vs Strikers 1
will recalibrate algo on this one. seems like Strikers declined. Any addt'l commentary or details here?

predict: San Diego Surf 10 vs Chula Vista 0. Actuals: San Diego Surf 4 vs Chula Vista 0
CV kept it a lot closer than expected. Was only 2-0 at half, plus SD Surf had three yellows (none for CV). So CV was doing something right to frustrate SD Surf. Any addt'l commentary or details here?

predict: Nomads 0 vs LAGSD 3. Actuals: Nomads 1 vs LAGSD 4

predict: San Diego SC 1 vs Albion 2 Actuals: San Diego SC 6 vs Albion 1
well, Bob's your uncle... SDSC announced that they came to play in 2019-20 with a strong showing over Albion last week and a good win over SD Surf the week before. Next week's match against LAGSD may be one to watch. For SDSC, DR went for five goals against Albion and two against SD Surf.
 
Final score for LAFC vs TFA was pretty indicative of gameplay. LAFC was dominant throughout although they only led 2-1 at half. LAFC missed a lot of chances and a PK in the first half. That PK call was a tough call in my opinion. But as soccer goes, the ball doesn't lie and LAFC missed the ensuing PK. Only difference between first and second half was that LAFC converted their chances, including two second half PKs that were legitimate calls in my opinion (takedowns in the box without touching the ball) and both were converted. TFA could not really get anything going on offense (I think 3 total shots on goal) although their goal was a nice interplay on a counter between a big kid they bring in from Fresno to play in big games and one of the new players that came from LAG. While TFA may have been beaten badly in this one, their midfield looked better to me. There were far fewer long balls out of the back and they really tried to play soccer the way their 06's do. Gametime temperature was nearly 90 degrees outside and they played on a 120 yard turf field so conditions were pretty tough for the boys.
 
Xman said:
Not sure how their midfield looked but 8-1 speaks volumes
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What exactly does it mean? That one team is better at recruiting players versus developing them? That one coach is more focused on winning another on development? That one team has a lot of size another doesn’t? That one team is going to produce more professional players than the other?

They are 12. And there are so many variables. They may have just been hot and given up once the score was 5-1. Not great but again, they are 12. And this is the first season of 11 v 11. That’s a big transition for some more than others. They are not professionals. 8-1 in the premiere league would speak volumes.

What would be more telling is other factors. How many times did they play out of the back versus punting? How many passes did they complete? Did they execute the things they were working on in training last week? How many chances did they create? How many players have been with the club 2+ years versus new this year? Did PT players get minutes? It is the “development” academy right?

Scores are a part of and can help assess a teams progress but too much focus on scores and standings at 12 is just perpetuating the issues in youth sports and our inability to produce world class soccer players.
 
So the team that brings a big kid from Fresno to play in big games is really focusing in development?
lol
8-1 dude
 
Xman said:
So the team that brings a big kid from Fresno to play in big games is really focusing in development?
lol
8-1 dude
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I should have been clear that I wasn’t making assumptions about either team but was responding to your comment that a large score discrepancy speaks volumes at the U13 level.

I don’t have a stake in either of those teams, just kids playing soccer in general
 
foreveryoung said:
I should have been clear that I wasn’t making assumptions about either team but was responding to your comment that a large score discrepancy speaks volumes at the U13 level.

I don’t have a stake in either of those teams, just kids playing soccer in general
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Yeah, there is probably some truth to your point... amazing how mental plays a role at this age... some of these kids (not mine of course, haha) can't turn drama off and focus on the game, understandably so. Amazing how they can play as world beaters one weekend and then be annoyed that they had to go to bed at 9:30 instead of staying up till midnight, wake up in a bad mood and then act like they have never seen a soccer ball before. lol
 
foreveryoung said:
What exactly does it mean? That one team is better at recruiting players versus developing them? That one coach is more focused on winning another on development? That one team has a lot of size another doesn’t? That one team is going to produce more professional players than the other?

They are 12. And there are so many variables. They may have just been hot and given up once the score was 5-1. Not great but again, they are 12. And this is the first season of 11 v 11. That’s a big transition for some more than others. They are not professionals. 8-1 in the premiere league would speak volumes.

What would be more telling is other factors. How many times did they play out of the back versus punting? How many passes did they complete? Did they execute the things they were working on in training last week? How many chances did they create? How many players have been with the club 2+ years versus new this year? Did PT players get minutes? It is the “development” academy right?

Scores are a part of and can help assess a teams progress but too much focus on scores and standings at 12 is just perpetuating the issues in youth sports and our inability to produce world class soccer players.
Click to expand...

I generally agree with you. However, the reality of DA is it's really not about development at the end of the day. This is a result of what DA calls "meaningful games", which is a euphemism for winning. Coaches are under tremendous pressure to win. Particularly those coaches at clubs that don't have a full complement of DA age groups. If you don't win you won't be considered for additional age groups. With the creation of A & B tiers for the 18/19 age group, which I expect to trickle down to other ages, the pressure to win will be even greater. Some clubs also have a reputation to uphold, so losing isn't an option. If a club has the choice of recruiting a kid that rates a 9 on a scale of 10, or keeping a loyal kid that's a 8 that has the potential to be a 10, the club is most likely going to take the recruit. Clubs prefer shiny new objects.

Development of a DA team really only occurs within the span of a season. The development of teams then resets at the beginning of each season as teams gain or lose players. Recruitment takes priority over development, although some clubs are more aggressive at recruitment than others and some are better at development.

I think the fact we're all over analyzing the results of 12 year olds has more to do with entertainment value than anything else. Do I love winning, absolutely, but I prefer a well played loss over a poorly played win. Or at least that's what I need to keep telling myself this year because its unlikely that my son's team will be near the top half of the bracket.
 
watfly said:
DA is it's really not about development at the end of the day.
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Agree... The way it ends up being about development is when quality coaches are involved. They develop talent because they are good coaches not because of the DA system.


watfly said:
Do I love winning, absolutely, but I prefer a well played loss over a poorly played win. Or at least that's what I need to keep telling my self this year because its unlikely that my son's team will be near the top half of the bracket this year.
Click to expand...

We may be teammates and not know it. hahahaha... I've been telling myself this for 2 years and figure I have to stop saying it somewhere around 16. hahaha. #TooReal
 
Speaking of over-analyzing, here's predicts for this weekend.

(but, first, a quick note, the point of these predicts is to provide context to look at a team and see if they're improving relative their own past performance i.e are they developing. For example, the 1-8 loss that TFA took vs LAFC last week is notable, not because TFA lost 1-8 (lots of teams will lose by that kind of margin to LAFC this season), but because they had only lost in aggregate 4-8 to LAFC last year, and because TFA was the #2 team in the region.

The Boys DA would be more accurately be called the Identification Academy because US Soccer primarily sees the DA system as a means to ID players for the YNT. This isn't casting aspersions, this is what they've said.

But only 10% of the players will ever be called into a YNT camp (note difference btw camp and training center here), and that 10% likely have shot at playing "pro" somewhere (pro can be everything from EPL to tier 4 in Switzerland to a PDL club in the US hence the "pro" designation).

For the other 90% , DA provides families with the possibility to 1) leverage soccer to get into a college their kid might not otherwise get into 2) maybe get a partial scholarship.

But, again, this is not US Soccer's focus - at all - on the boys side.

Btw, can confirm a 100% that most teams/coaches/clubs - despite what they say or imply - do not develop players.

Have been looking at team improvement/decline over time for two years for socal clubs across u12 thru u15 age groups, hoping that some evidence of player development will show up but have only seen one (maybe two) instance where improvement occurred over time without adding new players and without overloading the team with early birthday - i.e. older - kids.)​

here's predicts for this weekend. home team is listed first. Have incorporated 2019-20 results but the algo is still largely based on 2018-19 u12 results, so please insert appropriate caveats about accuracy here.

San Diego
Albion 6 vs Arsenal 1
OC Surf 5 vs Chula Vista 1 note: Chula Vista generated an interesting result last week, keeping what the algo said was going to be a big blow-out manageable (although still 0-4). Will be interested to see if CV can beat the algo again this week.
Strikers 1 vs San Diego Surf 4
LAGSD 1 vs San Diego SC 6 note: key for LAGSD will trying to keep SDSC's DR ( seven goals in the last two games) under control
Murrieta Surf 5 vs Nomads 0

Los Angeles
Legends 1 vs TFA 2
Ventura Fusion 4 vs LAUFA 1
FC Golden State 2 vs Santa Barbara SC 4
LAFC 12 vs Pateadores 2
Real SoCal 2 vs Los Angeles Surf 3

 
In your order:
I think Arsenal and Albion will be a lot closer then 6-1.
I think Strikers has maintained and Surf dropped, meaning that could go either way and will be closer.
I also think FCGS has improved and won’t get 4 on them.
 
watfly said:
I generally agree with you. However, the reality of DA is it's really not about development at the end of the day. This is a result of what DA calls "meaningful games", which is a euphemism for winning. Coaches are under tremendous pressure to win. Particularly those coaches at clubs that don't have a full complement of DA age groups. If you don't win you won't be considered for additional age groups. With the creation of A & B tiers for the 18/19 age group, which I expect to trickle down to other ages, the pressure to win will be even greater. Some clubs also have a reputation to uphold, so losing isn't an option. If a club has the choice of recruiting a kid that rates a 9 on a scale of 10, or keeping a loyal kid that's a 8 that has the potential to be a 10, the club is most likely going to take the recruit. Clubs prefer shiny new objects.

Development of a DA team really only occurs within the span of a season. The development of teams then resets at the beginning of each season as teams gain or lose players. Recruitment takes priority over development, although some clubs are more aggressive at recruitment than others and some are better at development.

I think the fact we're all over analyzing the results of 12 year olds has more to do with entertainment value than anything else. Do I love winning, absolutely, but I prefer a well played loss over a poorly played win. Or at least that's what I need to keep telling myself this year because its unlikely that my son's team will be near the top half of the bracket.
Click to expand...

So we just accept the reality and continue to perpetuate it by being hyper focused on scores/standings?

Aren’t the parents (paying customers) a pretty big influence on the clubs/coaches? Yes I know they have the league to deal with but isn’t also about the parents and their demand to win? Don’t we have some role in the reality of the current atmosphere? If we really wanted to see the clubs/coaches focused on development then we should start being hyper focused on things that matter with regards to development. That means on this forum, on the sidelines, letting our coaches know, and in our decisions about what club and/or coach they play for. Find a coach or club that believes in development and creating a great soccer experience for their players and stick with them, even through the losses. This is how change happens.

On a related note, I spontaneously asked a dozen or so 2006 DA boys milling around before training (who didn’t know me and there were no other adults or coaches in ear shot) why they play soccer. Almost all of them responded without hesitation with some version of “because it’s fun”. A couple seemed shocked by the question and I wondered if those are the “because my parent makes me” kids. No one said “to play in college”, “to get a scholarship”, “to win”, “to be a professional player someday”, “to stay fit and competitive”. Just “because it’s fun”.

I then asked if you were on a team that lost all the time would you still want to play soccer or would you rather not play at all. They all said they would rather play soccer and lose all the time then not play at all.

We've created an environment that serves the adults and not the kids. I'm just suggesting we be more aware of that and if we want that to change, be aware of how we contribute to it.
 
Kante said:
Have been looking at team improvement/decline over time for two years for socal clubs across u12 thru u15 age groups, hoping that some evidence of player development will show up but have only seen one (maybe two) instance where improvement occurred over time without adding new players and without overloading the team with early birthday - i.e. older - kids.)
Click to expand...

Are you are using scores/standings to assess team improvement/decline or are there other factors as well?
 
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