here's predicts for this weekend (10/19). home team is listed first and games are listed in home team alpha order.
The algo is kicking out some interesting predicts this week. There's a number of matches where conventional wisdom would say that one team should dominate but the algo is saying otherwise. We'll see what happens.
Note: u15 is the first year where age-related developmental differences are just starting to flatten out. Some teams - eg, LAFC and Strikers - may have benefitted disproportionately from having a large number of early developer players but now may be seeing that edge starting to recede. Have been looking at player dobs and their statistical relationship to outcomes and, at a prelim look, it appears that there's a strong correlation (and maybe causation) btw having players born in certain months and game outcomes. Shocking, right?. Will be digging into it to quantify this early developer advantage more in the next month or so...
SoCal
Albion 3 vs Arsenal 0
Crossfire 1 vs Barca 2 - match to watch
note: two strong teams in one of the toughest DA groups in the country. Barca - a team with players who are largely new to each other seem to be finding their stride, but it's only been four games... Last match btw these teams was 1-1 at Barca
LAGSD 0 vs SD Surf 1 - match to watch
note: Lots of rivalry and pride at stake in this match. LAGSD has three ex-Surf players, and it's fair to say that SD Surf is a shell of what they were last year. Having said that, SD Surf has shown that they're willing to make tactical decisions to get the result (ex. bunkering vs LAFC for the 0-0 tie). Am betting SD Surf tries to mark LAGSD's big striker out of the match and then XG takes this one on his shoulders offensively for the win. Match should be a fun one to watch.
LA Galaxy 3 vs LAUFA 0 - match to watch
note: So, LA galaxy... They've had some unexpectedly poor results this year. There's been reasons for most of these results including a tough start of the year schedule and JO - leading scorer from last year - being out with injury, but at some point, there's a trend, rather than a series of one-offs. LAG has good players but it seems like last year, and now this year, the whole is less than the sum of the parts. LAG is coming off a disappointing GA cup which featured three losses and -4 goal differential, and am thinking they may use this match to get a little mojo back.
LAUFA, on the other hand, again lost a number of good players this season but only four games in, it's tough to tell the impact. While LAUFA won their last two games, they had an earlier 0-3 loss to FCG despite LAUFA being a man up for the last 20 minutes due to a FCG red card.
End of the day, the LAG vs LAUFA ticket is always worth the price of admission and this will be fun match to watch with a fair amount of subtext.
Real Salt Lake 4 vs Pateadores 1
Real SoCal 1 vs LAFC 2 - match to watch
note: across most age groups, RSC almost always give LAFC a game. To use a SoCal analogy, this match-up has little feeling like UCLA vs USC. UCLA might have a crap season but if they're competitive w/ USC, the UCLA coach gets to keep his job. Likely it's not as dramatic as that for RSC coaches but the gist is there.
RSC has streamlined their roster this year and, aside from 1-5 loss to Strikers, has been having a solid season against one of the toughest u15 DA Cup groups in the country. In addition, RSC seems also to have found a way to consistently score goals which was a big challenge for them last year. Net net, RSC is a better team than they were last year when they beat LAFC 1-0. Also, RSC is bigger and faster (i.e. matches up better with LAFC) than they were last year.
Meanwhile, LAFC is coming off a difficult but reasonably successful GA Cup. However, this game is the first since the u15 YNT team was publicly announced. LAFC only had one player called up and that probably stings a bit. Especially since FC Dallas, a team to which LAFC lost a close GA Cup match - 0-1 - , had seven players called up.
The upside of this for RSC is that RW won't be at the match. The downside is that there should be a number of LAFC field players with something to prove including DC, SR, and DR, and probably others.
Last, LAFC has had two unexpected results, a 0-0 tie against a bunkering SD Surf where observers reported second hand that LAFc appeared listless, and 1-1 tie back and forth match vs FCG, and these results call into question where LAFc is at vs tougher SoCal competition. Some data shows that LAFC has benefited disproportionately for a couple of years now from an emphasis on early developer players and maybe this is starting to catch up at the u15 age bracket.
Strikers 3 vs Nomads 1 - match to watch
note: it has been a fascinating thing to watch the Strikers this year. Two of their key players from their last several seasons have left, and it looks like the Strikers, after winning the u12 national championship back in 2017, have come back to Earth a bit. In addition, the Strikers are one of those teams that may have benefitted disproportionately at the u13 and u14 age groups from having older players. Net net, while the Strikers are still a very good team, they're not quite what they were.
Having said that, they too have had a tough early season schedule with all of their games to date being against teams in the toughest DA Cup group in the country. This match vs the Nomads will be the Strikers' first SoCal match of the season and key measuring stick for where they're at this year.
On the other hand, the Nomads may be starting to show a little something something this season. It's tough to tell since it's only four games in and the Nomads schedule hasn't been nearly as rigorous as the Strikers' schedule.
TFA 2 vs FC Golden State 2 - match to watch
note: FCG's two leading scorers - VM and OL - came from TFA, and account for close to 80% of FCG's goals scored this season. However, TFA - despite losing a number of key players from last season - is performing much better than initially expected and seem to be rising to meet their competition in tougher matches with 1-1 tie with LAG and a 2-1 win against RSL. TFA's defense has been to their success so far and will be interesting to see how their D does against familiar faces.
On the other hand, FCG, club wide across age groups, seems to be making play to move into the top tier of academy competition and their 05 team is not exception. Even though they've had mixed results, FCG has had a tough schedule to date and did manage to pull out competitive outcomes with 1-2 loss to LAG and, by most accounts, a competitive 1-1 tie vs LAFC.
All said, this one will definitely be a fun match to watch.
Non-SoCal
Seattle Sounders 3 vs Vancouver 0
San Jose Earthquakes 3 vs Sacramento Republic 1
Silicon Valley SA 2 vs De Anza 1
Breakers 1 vs Ballistic 4
