2006 DA
- Thread starter Zvezdas
- Start date
I get that and good for those boys. Was just curious how they got in to play vs a lot of other non-DA teams out there that could have also played.
whatithink
GOLD
Not sure how they got to play but they are the youth club for a professional team that (desperately) wants MLS. They are also pretty strong on the boys side competing in the SW division of ECNL and top currently in U14, U15, U16, U17 & U18/19 age groups - basically every age group except U13.
So seem pretty strong candidates for an expansion team ...
Kante
PREMIER
here's predicts for this weekend (11/9). home team is listed first.
Los Angeles
LAUFA 2 - Ventura Fusion 2 - match to watch (edge to Ventura)
LA Surf 1 - LAFC 6 (TDS #8 in country)
Legends 1 - LA Galaxy 3 (TDS #24)
Santa Barbara SC 1 - Real SoCal 3
TFA 6 (TDS #1) - Pateadores 1
San Diego
Albion 1 - SC del Sol 1 - match to watch (edge to Albion)
Albion 0 - Real Salt Lake 3
LAGSD 5 - Arsenal 3
Nomads 1 - SDSC 2
OC Surf 0 - Murrieta Surf 2
San Diego Surf 1 - Strikers 1 - match to watch (edge to SD Surf)
Los Angeles
LAUFA 2 - Ventura Fusion 2 - match to watch (edge to Ventura)
LA Surf 1 - LAFC 6 (TDS #8 in country)
Legends 1 - LA Galaxy 3 (TDS #24)
Santa Barbara SC 1 - Real SoCal 3
TFA 6 (TDS #1) - Pateadores 1
San Diego
Albion 1 - SC del Sol 1 - match to watch (edge to Albion)
Albion 0 - Real Salt Lake 3
LAGSD 5 - Arsenal 3
Nomads 1 - SDSC 2
OC Surf 0 - Murrieta Surf 2
San Diego Surf 1 - Strikers 1 - match to watch (edge to SD Surf)
So the spread was exactly as predicted by the algorithm above.
Kante
PREMIER
here's predicts vs actuals for this last weekend (11/9). home team is listed first.
Los Angeles
predict: LAUFA 2 - Ventura Fusion 2 - (edge to Ventura) - actuals: LAUFA 1 - Ventura Fusion 3
note: Ventura got a goal in the first minute on a lapse by LAUFA but it was tight after that for 1-0 at half. After half it loosened up a bit with goals by both teams around the 45th minute for 2-1 Ventura, and LAUFA allowed an own goal at the 65th minute for 3-1 final result
predict: LA Surf 1 - LAFC 6 (TDS #8 in country) - rescheduled
predict: Legends 1 - LA Galaxy 3 (TDS #24) actuals: pending - does anyone have the score here?
predict: Santa Barbara SC 1 - Real SoCal 3 actuals: Santa Barbara SC 0 - Real SoCal 1
note: per game report, looks like a tight match with RSC getting the game winner at the 77th minute. Santa Barbara had a yellow in the 2nd minute to start the game. other notes are that, per DMs, Santa Barbara has at least three players out with injury. interesting result and the algo expected RSC to do better, something a lot closer to the 3-1 result the last time these teams played. any other commentary here?
predict: TFA 6 (TDS #1) - Pateadores 1 actuals: TFA 5 - Pateadores 0 (thx advantage for the score!)
San Diego
predict: Albion 1 - SC del Sol 1 - (edge to Albion) actuals: Albion 0 - SC del Sol 0
predict: Albion 0 - Real Salt Lake 3 actuals: Albion 2 - Real Salt Lake 3
note: per game report, looks like fun match to watch. Albion had an early breakdown and allowed RSL two quick ones in the first five minutes, but Albion's CD got one back right before half for 2-1 RSL at ht. in the 2nd half, CD put another one in at the 69th minute to tie it 2-2 but RSL had the last word w/ a 79th minute goal for the 3-2 win.
predict: LAGSD 5 - Arsenal 3 actuals: LAGSD 3 - Arsenal 0
note: per game report, Arsenal had a yellow at the 2nd minute and it seems like it was downhill from there. LAGSD's AMontesinos put one in at the 30th minute and another at the 71st minute, and AMunoz finished it with one at 72nd minute for the 3-0 result. The algo had this as a much more wide open match, any commentary/insight here?
predict: Nomads 1 - SDSC 2 actuals: Nomads 0 - SDSC 3
note: SDSC took control early with GE getting a goal in the 2nd minute, and then another right before half. SDCS closed the books w/ a last goal at the 73rd minute for the 3-0 final result
predict: OC Surf 0 - Murrieta Surf 2 actuals: OC Surf 0 - Murrieta Surf 3
note: per game report, looks like Murrieta had the match well in hand most of the way with RE getting an early goal at the 3rd minute and BH making it 2-0 before half. Murrieta lost a player to a red at the 55th minute but RE still managed one more goal at the 62nd minute for the final 3-0 result.
predict: San Diego Surf 1 - Strikers 1 - (edge to SD Surf) actuals: San Diego Surf 1 - Strikers 2
note: note to self, create unique thread for the next SD Surf vs Strikers matches... sounds like u13 match was solid soccer and looks like the u14 match was no different.
per the game report, it was a stalemate in the first half w/ 0-0 scoreline at ht. In the 2nd half, SD Surf scored first, VP getting on the board at the 44th minute to make it 1-0. Striker kept at it though and tier it up 1-1at the 57th minute w/ a goal from AR. Back and forth after that point, but Strikers pulled it out w/ DZ putting another one in the back of the net at the 75th minute. only other note is that SD Surf was missing their second leading scorer. any other commentary/insight here?
Los Angeles
predict: LAUFA 2 - Ventura Fusion 2 - (edge to Ventura) - actuals: LAUFA 1 - Ventura Fusion 3
note: Ventura got a goal in the first minute on a lapse by LAUFA but it was tight after that for 1-0 at half. After half it loosened up a bit with goals by both teams around the 45th minute for 2-1 Ventura, and LAUFA allowed an own goal at the 65th minute for 3-1 final result
predict: LA Surf 1 - LAFC 6 (TDS #8 in country) - rescheduled
predict: Legends 1 - LA Galaxy 3 (TDS #24) actuals: pending - does anyone have the score here?
predict: Santa Barbara SC 1 - Real SoCal 3 actuals: Santa Barbara SC 0 - Real SoCal 1
note: per game report, looks like a tight match with RSC getting the game winner at the 77th minute. Santa Barbara had a yellow in the 2nd minute to start the game. other notes are that, per DMs, Santa Barbara has at least three players out with injury. interesting result and the algo expected RSC to do better, something a lot closer to the 3-1 result the last time these teams played. any other commentary here?
predict: TFA 6 (TDS #1) - Pateadores 1 actuals: TFA 5 - Pateadores 0 (thx advantage for the score!)
San Diego
predict: Albion 1 - SC del Sol 1 - (edge to Albion) actuals: Albion 0 - SC del Sol 0
predict: Albion 0 - Real Salt Lake 3 actuals: Albion 2 - Real Salt Lake 3
note: per game report, looks like fun match to watch. Albion had an early breakdown and allowed RSL two quick ones in the first five minutes, but Albion's CD got one back right before half for 2-1 RSL at ht. in the 2nd half, CD put another one in at the 69th minute to tie it 2-2 but RSL had the last word w/ a 79th minute goal for the 3-2 win.
predict: LAGSD 5 - Arsenal 3 actuals: LAGSD 3 - Arsenal 0
note: per game report, Arsenal had a yellow at the 2nd minute and it seems like it was downhill from there. LAGSD's AMontesinos put one in at the 30th minute and another at the 71st minute, and AMunoz finished it with one at 72nd minute for the 3-0 result. The algo had this as a much more wide open match, any commentary/insight here?
predict: Nomads 1 - SDSC 2 actuals: Nomads 0 - SDSC 3
note: SDSC took control early with GE getting a goal in the 2nd minute, and then another right before half. SDCS closed the books w/ a last goal at the 73rd minute for the 3-0 final result
predict: OC Surf 0 - Murrieta Surf 2 actuals: OC Surf 0 - Murrieta Surf 3
note: per game report, looks like Murrieta had the match well in hand most of the way with RE getting an early goal at the 3rd minute and BH making it 2-0 before half. Murrieta lost a player to a red at the 55th minute but RE still managed one more goal at the 62nd minute for the final 3-0 result.
predict: San Diego Surf 1 - Strikers 1 - (edge to SD Surf) actuals: San Diego Surf 1 - Strikers 2
note: note to self, create unique thread for the next SD Surf vs Strikers matches... sounds like u13 match was solid soccer and looks like the u14 match was no different.
per the game report, it was a stalemate in the first half w/ 0-0 scoreline at ht. In the 2nd half, SD Surf scored first, VP getting on the board at the 44th minute to make it 1-0. Striker kept at it though and tier it up 1-1at the 57th minute w/ a goal from AR. Back and forth after that point, but Strikers pulled it out w/ DZ putting another one in the back of the net at the 75th minute. only other note is that SD Surf was missing their second leading scorer. any other commentary/insight here?
According to Legends' twitter account, it beat LA Galaxy 2006 1-0
Kante
PREMIER
here's predicts for this weekend (11/16). home teams are listed first. ordered alpha by home team. some good matches in LA. several tier 2, defensive minded teams w/ aspirations playing each other this weekend. In SD, couple of decent matches as well.
Los Angeles
FC Golden State 1 - LA Surf 0 - match to watch
LAFC 6 - Santa Barbara SC 0
LA Galaxy 5 - Ventura Fusion 2
LA Surf 0 - TFA 6
LAUFA 1 - Legends 1 (edge to Legends) - match to watch
Real SoCal 1 - FC Golden State 0 - match to watch
TFA 2 - Legends 1 - match to watch
San Diego
Albion 1 - San Diego SC 1 (edge to Albion) - match to watch
Murrieta Surf 1 - LAGSD 2 - match to watch
San Diego Surf 5 - OC Surf 0
Strikers 5 - Arsenal 0
Los Angeles
FC Golden State 1 - LA Surf 0 - match to watch
LAFC 6 - Santa Barbara SC 0
LA Galaxy 5 - Ventura Fusion 2
LA Surf 0 - TFA 6
LAUFA 1 - Legends 1 (edge to Legends) - match to watch
Real SoCal 1 - FC Golden State 0 - match to watch
TFA 2 - Legends 1 - match to watch
San Diego
Albion 1 - San Diego SC 1 (edge to Albion) - match to watch
Murrieta Surf 1 - LAGSD 2 - match to watch
San Diego Surf 5 - OC Surf 0
Strikers 5 - Arsenal 0
Kante
PREMIER
here's standings as of last weekend. highlighted best offensive teams (top 5 in socal and top 3 in group) and best defensive teams (same). SoCal standings are presented first and group standings are presented second.
of note, so far, TFA is head and shoulders above the rest of the SoCal on both sides of the ball (and they've been playing a handful of 06s up w/ their 05s), and Strikers stand out as the top defensive team in SoCal.
Notable SoCal results from the showcase are:
TFA 1 - Strikers 0
Strikers 2 - Real SoCal 0
Real SoCal 1 - Real Salt Lake 0
Pateadores 4 - Real Salt Lake 2
LA Galaxy 4 - San Diego Surf 0
San Diego Surf 2 - Real SoCal 0
San Diego Surf 3 - Pateadores 0
of note, so far, TFA is head and shoulders above the rest of the SoCal on both sides of the ball (and they've been playing a handful of 06s up w/ their 05s), and Strikers stand out as the top defensive team in SoCal.
Notable SoCal results from the showcase are:
TFA 1 - Strikers 0
Strikers 2 - Real SoCal 0
Real SoCal 1 - Real Salt Lake 0
Pateadores 4 - Real Salt Lake 2
LA Galaxy 4 - San Diego Surf 0
San Diego Surf 2 - Real SoCal 0
San Diego Surf 3 - Pateadores 0
SOCCerJunKIE
BRONZE
Interesting stats so far? Strikers and TFA top teams with Strikers Goal Allowed per Game is pretty impressive
Kante
PREMIER
yup, it's too bad LAFC didn't play the Strikers at the showcase. Would have been an interesting match.
Kante
PREMIER
Usually would post something like this in the Soccer Nerd thread - https://www.socalsoccer.com/threads/going-full-soccer-academy-nerd.17391/page-2#post-297541 - but today is different. Today, the USMNT is playing Canada in the second leg of the Nations Cup. Coverage for the USMNT vs Canada starts at 4pm pst on ESPN2, Unimas and TUDN.
Why does it matter?
The stakes are high for the match this evening in a way they haven't been for the USMNT since last WC qualifying, and we all know how that went.
Because of new FIFA rules, Canada must win today to have a 100% shot at qualifying for the 2022 WC. Last match, they beat the US 2-0 with the best Canadian team - and best Canadian coach - in a generation. Worse, the US looked really bad in the loss, and most thought the 0-2 scoreline was generous to the US. If Canada draws, they have 50/50 shot at getting a chance to qualify for the WC and if they lose, there's only a small possibility.
On the flip side, after the 0-2 loss, the USMNT coach, Greg Berhalter - went on the public record as saying the second US v Canada match was a " must win." US Soccer GM Earnie Stewart this week walked that statement back a bit, saying one result would not determine the fate of Berhalter but...
For background, here's one the best articles on the current state of the USMNT is below. Here's the article - https://theathletic.com/1379646/2019/11/15/no-country-for-usmnt-fans/
(One point that is missed a bit - is that at the youth level - the window for the kids is small, and waiting out the US Soccer dysfunction, the way one might wait out a pro sports team's run of poor performance, is not really an option imo.)
View attachment 5638
Why does it matter?
The stakes are high for the match this evening in a way they haven't been for the USMNT since last WC qualifying, and we all know how that went.
Because of new FIFA rules, Canada must win today to have a 100% shot at qualifying for the 2022 WC. Last match, they beat the US 2-0 with the best Canadian team - and best Canadian coach - in a generation. Worse, the US looked really bad in the loss, and most thought the 0-2 scoreline was generous to the US. If Canada draws, they have 50/50 shot at getting a chance to qualify for the WC and if they lose, there's only a small possibility.
On the flip side, after the 0-2 loss, the USMNT coach, Greg Berhalter - went on the public record as saying the second US v Canada match was a " must win." US Soccer GM Earnie Stewart this week walked that statement back a bit, saying one result would not determine the fate of Berhalter but...
For background, here's one the best articles on the current state of the USMNT is below. Here's the article - https://theathletic.com/1379646/2019/11/15/no-country-for-usmnt-fans/
(One point that is missed a bit - is that at the youth level - the window for the kids is small, and waiting out the US Soccer dysfunction, the way one might wait out a pro sports team's run of poor performance, is not really an option imo.)
View attachment 5638
I fully agree, it would be nice if the top southern teams played the top northern teams more often. It would be beneficial for all players and the regional talent!
I usually agree with your predictions but TFA 2-1 to legends? I think you are way off
Kante
PREMIER
yup, the da cup matches facilitating games btw like teams from different regions from u15+have been solid. USSDA didn't roll it out as well as they could have, i.e. didn't tell anyone ahead of time, but overall the concept is solid.
Legit_play
SILVER
TFA 4-0 Legends, match was pretty one-sided.
Kante
PREMIER
here's predicts vs actuals for this last weekend (11/16). home teams are listed first. ordered alpha by home team.
Los Angeles
predict: FC Golden State 1 - LA Surf 0 actuals: actuals: pending - anyone have the score for this match?
predict: LAFC 6 - Santa Barbara SC 0 actuals: LAFC 2 - Santa Barbara SC 1
note: WHAT ... ???
The last time these two teams played at the end of the 2018-19 season, it was 8-0 LAFC and LAFC rostered 10 07s for that match.
So what happened? Here's the breakdown (apologies for the length of the comments but there's a lot going on here):
1) Bigger picture. LAFC, in general, is starting to come back to earth, from the 07s all the way up to the 04s.
When they first premiered in 2017-18 as u13s and u14s, the 05 and 04 LAFC teams set an incredibly high standard. The LAFC 05s went undefeated that season, outscoring opposition by some ridiculous margin like 100 to 12 (don't remember exactly what it was but 100 to 12 is close...) in the 2017-18 season and then going on to win the Concacaf club championship in August 2018. The 04s were not quite as dominant but close, and ended up in the USSDA u15 final last year, losing in the last ten minutes to Toronto after taking an early lead.
a) A significant %, not all, but a significant %, of the LAFC advantage had/has to do with bigger/faster/stronger due to a combination of early developers and older players. At some point, though, everybody catches up...
exhibit A is how the 04s did w/ Toronto where they didn't have a size/speed advantage. Still really really good but not otherworldly...
exhibit B is how the 04s are doing playing u17 this year
b) the market adjusts... LA teams now know that, to compete w/ LAFC, they need size and much higher quality, and are adjusting their player rosters accordingly. not a great trend for SoCal soccer in the opinion of some because it has teams focusing exponentially more on near term size/speed advantages that will eventually even out, and reducing opportunity by younger, quality players. To be fair, this has always been an issue but the need to compete with LAFC teams has made the trend worse.
exhibit C - see the RSL and Barca reboots at the u15 level this year, LAG's reboot last year and FCG's adjustments both last year and this year.
c) the extremely high level that LAFC set w/ the 05s and 04s is just to hard to maintain over time. these are still kids after all.
exhibit D - in the 2018-19 season, about six weeks after the 05s won the Concacaf championship, the LAFC 05s/u14s lost 0-1 to Real SoCal, a team that would finish that year in the bottom third of the group standings. exhibit e - LAFC 04s offense consistently decline over time last season
d) LAFC players may be having a tough time maintaining intensity during matches vs lesser teams.
exhibit E - according to folks at the match vs Santa Barbara, LAFC players didn't have a lot of movement. from reports, it sounds like most of the game was an LAFC back bringing the ball up to the top of Santa Barbara's final third and then looking to slip an attacking player in. the handful of times when there was more LAFC movement led to goals. point being is that reports have LAFC looking a little lackadaisical vs Santa Barbara. This "lackadaisical" comment is similar to reports from the 05s match vs SD Surf (see below)...
2) Teams are adjusting tactics and style of play, and honestly, the shock and awe has worn off a bit.
exhibit F - SD Surf 05s - after their roster was starting roster was gutted this year, still came away with a 0-0 tie vs LAFC 05s this season by - according to in person accounts, bunkering and looking to counter, FCG's three teams at 07, 06, and 05 came away with an aggregate 2-3 results across three matches playing LAFC at home, and now Santa Barbara SC only loses 1-2, largely by putting nine players behind the ball/in their final third to defend and making LAFC play 6 v 9 and sometimes 7 v 10 for the vast majority of the game.
3) LAFC 06s are very good but may not actually, in fact, be Galacticos, at least not match in and match out.
exhibit G - here's a chart showing LAFC's offensive performance over time against LA group opponents, with LAFC goal scoring as a % of average goals allowed by opponents. across all matches, LAFC is scoring +59% more goals than opponents typically allow (the blue arrow line), but, if you take out the matches against TFA (game #1 - LAFC's most competitive match of the year) and the match against RSC (game #6 - LAFC's best offensive performance of the year which happened after going down to RSC 0-2 early in the first half), LAFC only scores a much more pedestrian +9% more goals than opponents typically allow (the orange arrow line).
exhibit H - here's a chart showing LAFC defensive performance over time against LA group opponents, with LAFC goals allowed as a % of average goals scored by opponents. across all matches, LAFC is now allowing about -25% more goals than opponents typically score (the blue arrow line). Not bad but not best in the nation by far, and the trend is clearly going in the wrong direction.
So short version on the match
, Santa Barbara bunkered, got a fortunate goal early and LAFC didn't seem to have the motivation and/or creativity to break down Santa Barbara's low block. This seems to be an issue across age groups, although that conclusion is based on a small data set.
Short version on the LAFC big picture: Despite publicly stated commitments last year to developing players for the first team and playing players up, LAFC, so far this season, doesn't seem to be keeping to that, to the detriment, ironically, of both results and player development.
For example, of the 56 players rostered on the 07, 06 and 05 teams (i.e. the players who could play up), only four have played up with an older age group so far this season.
Meanwhile the rest of the LA group is catching up...
predict: LA Galaxy 5 - Ventura Fusion 2 actuals: LA Galaxy 7 - Ventura Fusion 1
predict: LA Surf 0 - TFA 6 actuals: LA Surf 0 - TFA 2
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: LAUFA 1 - Legends 1 (edge to Legends) - actuals: LAUFA 2 - Legends 2
predict: Real SoCal 1 - FC Golden State 0 - actuals: Real SoCal 1 - FC Golden State 1
predict: TFA 2 - Legends 1 - actuals: pending - anyone have the score for this match?
San Diego
predict: Albion 1 - San Diego SC 1 (edge to Albion) - actuals: Albion 4 - San Diego SC 1
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: Murrieta Surf 1 - LAGSD 2 - actuals: Murrieta Surf 6 - LAGSD 2
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: San Diego Surf 5 - OC Surf 0 - actuals: San Diego Surf 3 - OC Surf 0
predict: Strikers 5 - Arsenal 0 - actuals: Strikers 5 - Arsenal 1
Los Angeles
predict: FC Golden State 1 - LA Surf 0 actuals: actuals: pending - anyone have the score for this match?
predict: LAFC 6 - Santa Barbara SC 0 actuals: LAFC 2 - Santa Barbara SC 1
note: WHAT ... ???
The last time these two teams played at the end of the 2018-19 season, it was 8-0 LAFC and LAFC rostered 10 07s for that match.
So what happened? Here's the breakdown (apologies for the length of the comments but there's a lot going on here):
1) Bigger picture. LAFC, in general, is starting to come back to earth, from the 07s all the way up to the 04s.
When they first premiered in 2017-18 as u13s and u14s, the 05 and 04 LAFC teams set an incredibly high standard. The LAFC 05s went undefeated that season, outscoring opposition by some ridiculous margin like 100 to 12 (don't remember exactly what it was but 100 to 12 is close...) in the 2017-18 season and then going on to win the Concacaf club championship in August 2018. The 04s were not quite as dominant but close, and ended up in the USSDA u15 final last year, losing in the last ten minutes to Toronto after taking an early lead.
a) A significant %, not all, but a significant %, of the LAFC advantage had/has to do with bigger/faster/stronger due to a combination of early developers and older players. At some point, though, everybody catches up...
exhibit A is how the 04s did w/ Toronto where they didn't have a size/speed advantage. Still really really good but not otherworldly...
exhibit B is how the 04s are doing playing u17 this year
b) the market adjusts... LA teams now know that, to compete w/ LAFC, they need size and much higher quality, and are adjusting their player rosters accordingly. not a great trend for SoCal soccer in the opinion of some because it has teams focusing exponentially more on near term size/speed advantages that will eventually even out, and reducing opportunity by younger, quality players. To be fair, this has always been an issue but the need to compete with LAFC teams has made the trend worse.
exhibit C - see the RSL and Barca reboots at the u15 level this year, LAG's reboot last year and FCG's adjustments both last year and this year.
c) the extremely high level that LAFC set w/ the 05s and 04s is just to hard to maintain over time. these are still kids after all.
exhibit D - in the 2018-19 season, about six weeks after the 05s won the Concacaf championship, the LAFC 05s/u14s lost 0-1 to Real SoCal, a team that would finish that year in the bottom third of the group standings. exhibit e - LAFC 04s offense consistently decline over time last season
d) LAFC players may be having a tough time maintaining intensity during matches vs lesser teams.
exhibit E - according to folks at the match vs Santa Barbara, LAFC players didn't have a lot of movement. from reports, it sounds like most of the game was an LAFC back bringing the ball up to the top of Santa Barbara's final third and then looking to slip an attacking player in. the handful of times when there was more LAFC movement led to goals. point being is that reports have LAFC looking a little lackadaisical vs Santa Barbara. This "lackadaisical" comment is similar to reports from the 05s match vs SD Surf (see below)...
2) Teams are adjusting tactics and style of play, and honestly, the shock and awe has worn off a bit.
exhibit F - SD Surf 05s - after their roster was starting roster was gutted this year, still came away with a 0-0 tie vs LAFC 05s this season by - according to in person accounts, bunkering and looking to counter, FCG's three teams at 07, 06, and 05 came away with an aggregate 2-3 results across three matches playing LAFC at home, and now Santa Barbara SC only loses 1-2, largely by putting nine players behind the ball/in their final third to defend and making LAFC play 6 v 9 and sometimes 7 v 10 for the vast majority of the game.
3) LAFC 06s are very good but may not actually, in fact, be Galacticos, at least not match in and match out.
exhibit G - here's a chart showing LAFC's offensive performance over time against LA group opponents, with LAFC goal scoring as a % of average goals allowed by opponents. across all matches, LAFC is scoring +59% more goals than opponents typically allow (the blue arrow line), but, if you take out the matches against TFA (game #1 - LAFC's most competitive match of the year) and the match against RSC (game #6 - LAFC's best offensive performance of the year which happened after going down to RSC 0-2 early in the first half), LAFC only scores a much more pedestrian +9% more goals than opponents typically allow (the orange arrow line).
exhibit H - here's a chart showing LAFC defensive performance over time against LA group opponents, with LAFC goals allowed as a % of average goals scored by opponents. across all matches, LAFC is now allowing about -25% more goals than opponents typically score (the blue arrow line). Not bad but not best in the nation by far, and the trend is clearly going in the wrong direction.
So short version on the match
, Santa Barbara bunkered, got a fortunate goal early and LAFC didn't seem to have the motivation and/or creativity to break down Santa Barbara's low block. This seems to be an issue across age groups, although that conclusion is based on a small data set.Short version on the LAFC big picture: Despite publicly stated commitments last year to developing players for the first team and playing players up, LAFC, so far this season, doesn't seem to be keeping to that, to the detriment, ironically, of both results and player development.
For example, of the 56 players rostered on the 07, 06 and 05 teams (i.e. the players who could play up), only four have played up with an older age group so far this season.
Meanwhile the rest of the LA group is catching up...
predict: LA Galaxy 5 - Ventura Fusion 2 actuals: LA Galaxy 7 - Ventura Fusion 1
predict: LA Surf 0 - TFA 6 actuals: LA Surf 0 - TFA 2
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: LAUFA 1 - Legends 1 (edge to Legends) - actuals: LAUFA 2 - Legends 2
predict: Real SoCal 1 - FC Golden State 0 - actuals: Real SoCal 1 - FC Golden State 1
predict: TFA 2 - Legends 1 - actuals: pending - anyone have the score for this match?
San Diego
predict: Albion 1 - San Diego SC 1 (edge to Albion) - actuals: Albion 4 - San Diego SC 1
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: Murrieta Surf 1 - LAGSD 2 - actuals: Murrieta Surf 6 - LAGSD 2
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: San Diego Surf 5 - OC Surf 0 - actuals: San Diego Surf 3 - OC Surf 0
predict: Strikers 5 - Arsenal 0 - actuals: Strikers 5 - Arsenal 1
Legit_play
SILVER
The reply just above states TFA 4-0 Legends, pretty one-sided. Personally missed the TFA vs LA Surf match so, I can't comment on it.here's predicts vs actuals for this last weekend (11/16). home teams are listed first. ordered alpha by home team.
Los Angeles
predict: FC Golden State 1 - LA Surf 0 actuals: actuals: pending - anyone have the score for this match?
predict: LAFC 6 - Santa Barbara SC 0 actuals: LAFC 2 - Santa Barbara SC 1
note: WHAT ... ???
The last time these two teams played at the end of the 2018-19 season, it was 8-0 LAFC and LAFC rostered 10 07s for that match.
So what happened? Here's the breakdown (apologies for the length of the comments but there's a lot going on here):
1) Bigger picture. LAFC, in general, is starting to come back to earth, from the 07s all the way up to the 04s.
When they first premiered in 2017-18 as u13s and u14s, the 05 and 04 LAFC teams set an incredibly high standard. The LAFC 05s went undefeated that season, outscoring opposition by some ridiculous margin like 100 to 12 (don't remember exactly what it was but 100 to 12 is close...) in the 2017-18 season and then going on to win the Concacaf club championship in August 2018. The 04s were not quite as dominant but close, and ended up in the USSDA u15 final last year, losing in the last ten minutes to Toronto after taking an early lead.
a) A significant %, not all, but a significant %, of the LAFC advantage had/has to do with bigger/faster/stronger due to a combination of early developers and older players. At some point, though, everybody catches up...
exhibit A is how the 04s did w/ Toronto where they didn't have a size/speed advantage. Still really really good but not otherworldly...
exhibit B is how the 04s are doing playing u17 this year
b) the market adjusts... LA teams now know that, to compete w/ LAFC, they need size and much higher quality, and are adjusting their player rosters accordingly. not a great trend for SoCal soccer in the opinion of some because it has teams focusing exponentially more on near term size/speed advantages that will eventually even out, and reducing opportunity by younger, quality players. To be fair, this has always been an issue but the need to compete with LAFC teams has made the trend worse.
exhibit C - see the RSL and Barca reboots at the u15 level this year, LAG's reboot last year and FCG's adjustments both last year and this year.
c) the extremely high level that LAFC set w/ the 05s and 04s is just to hard to maintain over time. these are still kids after all.
exhibit D - in the 2018-19 season, about six weeks after the 05s won the Concacaf championship, the LAFC 05s/u14s lost 0-1 to Real SoCal, a team that would finish that year in the bottom third of the group standings. exhibit e - LAFC 04s offense consistently decline over time last season
d) LAFC players may be having a tough time maintaining intensity during matches vs lesser teams.
exhibit E - according to folks at the match vs Santa Barbara, LAFC players didn't have a lot of movement. from reports, it sounds like most of the game was an LAFC back bringing the ball up to the top of Santa Barbara's final third and then looking to slip an attacking player in. the handful of times when there was more LAFC movement led to goals. point being is that reports have LAFC looking a little lackadaisical vs Santa Barbara. This "lackadaisical" comment is similar to reports from the 05s match vs SD Surf (see below)...
2) Teams are adjusting tactics and style of play, and honestly, the shock and awe has worn off a bit.
exhibit F - SD Surf 05s - after their roster was starting roster was gutted this year, still came away with a 0-0 tie vs LAFC 05s this season by - according to in person accounts, bunkering and looking to counter, FCG's three teams at 07, 06, and 05 came away with an aggregate 2-3 results across three matches playing LAFC at home, and now Santa Barbara SC only loses 1-2, largely by putting nine players behind the ball/in their final third to defend and making LAFC play 6 v 9 and sometimes 7 v 10 for the vast majority of the game.
3) LAFC 06s are very good but may not actually, in fact, be Galacticos, at least not match in and match out.
exhibit G - here's a chart showing LAFC's offensive performance over time against LA group opponents, with LAFC goal scoring as a % of average goals allowed by opponents. across all matches, LAFC is scoring +59% more goals than opponents typically allow (the blue arrow line), but, if you take out the matches against TFA (game #1 - LAFC's most competitive match of the year) and the match against RSC (game #6 - LAFC's best offensive performance of the year which happened after going down to RSC 0-2 early in the first half), LAFC only scores a much more pedestrian +9% more goals than opponents typically allow (the orange arrow line).
View attachment 5678
exhibit H - here's a chart showing LAFC defensive performance over time against LA group opponents, with LAFC goals allowed as a % of average goals scored by opponents. across all matches, LAFC is now allowing about -25% more goals than opponents typically score (the blue arrow line). Not bad but not best in the nation by far, and the trend is clearly going in the wrong direction.
View attachment 5680
So short version on the match
Short version on the LAFC big picture: Despite publicly stated commitments last year to developing players for the first team and playing players up, LAFC, so far this season, doesn't seem to be keeping to that, to the detriment, ironically, of both results and player development.
For example, of the 56 players rostered on the 07, 06 and 05 teams (i.e. the players who could play up), only four have played up with an older age group so far this season.
Meanwhile the rest of the LA group is catching up...
predict: LA Galaxy 5 - Ventura Fusion 2 actuals: LA Galaxy 7 - Ventura Fusion 1
predict: LA Surf 0 - TFA 6 actuals: LA Surf 0 - TFA 2
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: LAUFA 1 - Legends 1 (edge to Legends) - actuals: LAUFA 2 - Legends 2
predict: Real SoCal 1 - FC Golden State 0 - actuals: Real SoCal 1 - FC Golden State 1
predict: TFA 2 - Legends 1 - actuals: pending - anyone have the score for this match?
San Diego
predict: Albion 1 - San Diego SC 1 (edge to Albion) - actuals: Albion 4 - San Diego SC 1
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: Murrieta Surf 1 - LAGSD 2 - actuals: Murrieta Surf 6 - LAGSD 2
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: San Diego Surf 5 - OC Surf 0 - actuals: San Diego Surf 3 - OC Surf 0
predict: Strikers 5 - Arsenal 0 - actuals: Strikers 5 - Arsenal 1