DA Playoffs - Results by Division

Discussion in 'Girls Development Academy' started by SocalPapa, Jun 30, 2018.

  1. SocalPapa

    SocalPapa

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    Well the Southwest - West Division has its first DA National Champion. Congrats to LAFC Slammers U-18/19!

    But how has Southwest done in the DA playoffs overall? Pretty darn awesome! Here's a summary:

    U15 W-L-T (# of teams in semi-finals) [avg. wins per team]
    Southwest - West Division 18-6-4 (2) [2.25]
    Frontier - Central Division 10-2-2 (2) [2.5]
    Mid-America - Central Division 5-5-0 [1.0]
    Northwest - West Division 5-9-2 [1.0]
    Southeast - East Division 4-7-1 [1.0]
    Atlantic - East Division 3-5-1 [1.0]
    Northeast - East Division 0-11-4 [0.0]

    U-16/17 W-L-T (# of teams in semi-finals) [avg. wins per team]
    Frontier - Central Division 10-4-1* (1) [2.5]
    Southwest - West Division 10-8-1 (1) [1.67]
    Atlantic - East Division 7-6-1 [1.75]
    Northwest - West Division 7-6-0 (1) [1.75]
    Mid-America - Central Division 6-8-2 (1) [1.2]
    Southeast - East Division 6-8-1 [1.2]
    Northeast - East Division 2-8-2 [0.5]
    *2 losses vs other Frontier teams

    U-18/19 W-L-T (# of teams in semi-finals) [avg. wins per team]

    Southwest - West Division 8-6-3** (1) (champion) [1.6]
    Frontier - Central Division 4-4-0 (1) [2]
    Southeast - East Division 3-3-3 [1]
    Northeast - East Division 2-2-0 (1) [2]
    Northwest - West Division 2-4-1 (1) [1]
    Atlantic - East Division 1-1-4 [0.5]
    Mid-America - Central Division 1-1-1 [1]
    **2 losses vs other SW teams

    Overall W-L-T (# of teams in semi-finals) [avg. wins per team]
    Southwest - West Division 36-20-8 (4) [1.89]
    Frontier - Central Division 24-10-3 (4) [2.40]
    Northwest - West Division 14-19-3 (2) [1.27]
    Southeast - East Division 13-18-5 [1.08]
    Atlantic - East Division 11-12-6 [1.22]
    Mid-America - Central Division 12-14-3 (1) [1.33]
    Northeast - East Division 4-21-6 (1) [0.40]

    Edit: added average wins per team to give a clearer comparison since SW has more teams in the playoffs than the other divisions.

    Lots of great performances from the younger SW teams. A few that stand out are:
    • Legends' U15 team winning their pool (and making it to the semis) as a #13 seed (beating Solar, which had the #2 RPI).
    • Slammers' U15 team being undefeated in pool play as the #29 seed. That included ties against both NYC FC, the #7 playoff seed, and the Dallas Texans, who was #4 in RPI.
    • SC del Sol's U15 team winning their pool as #22 seed (#3 pot). Unfortunately their reward was an elimination game against the #1 RPI FC Dallas team.
    Surf's U15 team (#16 seed) beating Tophat (#4 seed) was also impressive (though they were closer in RPI - #7 and #6, respectively).
     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2018
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  2. SocalPapa

    SocalPapa

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    More fun with Excel...

    The NCAA RPI formula proved slightly more predictive of outcome than tournament seeding.
    • Out of 263 total playoff games so far the lower-ranked RPI team won 58 times (with an average RPI differential of 8.24), while the lower seeded team won 68 times (with an average seeding differential of 9.45). So RPI was slightly more accurate by this measurement.
    • There were 34 ties (meaning that both a lower-ranked RPI team and a lower seeded team did better than predicted).
    So, which division performed better than expected? Southwest of course!

    RPI Underdog Wins by Division (# of Teams Upset in the Division)
    Southwest - West Division 32 (22) +10
    Northwest - West Division 14 (12) +2
    Southeast - East Division 12 (20) -8
    Atlantic - East Division 10 (14) -4
    Northeast - East Division 10 (6) +4
    Frontier - Central Division 8 (12) -4
    Mid-America - Central Division 6 (6) even

    Seed Underdog Wins by Division (# of Teams Upset in the Division)
    Southwest - West Division 34 (28) +6
    Atlantic - East Division 14 (12) +2
    Northeast - East Division 12 (6) +6
    Northwest - West Division 12 (14) -2
    Southeast - East Division 12 (22) -10
    Frontier - Central Division 10 (14) -4
    Mid-America - Central Division 8 (6) +2

    above figures treat ties as an upset


    The number of upsets by the Southwest division compared to the other divisions is pretty stunning. It suggests two things to me: 1) the good Southwest teams beat up on each other in league play and 2) Southwest underperformed at the showcases (perhaps travel being the difference, as others have suggested).

    Edit: I just looked at the other side of the equation - what was the division of the team that was upset? While Southwest was on the winning end of a lot of upsets, they were on the losing end of a lot of upsets too. I added those figures to the charts above. Southwest still impressive, but not quite so, taking that figure into account.
     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2018
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  3. Soccer43

    Soccer43

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    I was curious to see how the performance of the different divisions play out or are connected to the selections on the YNT. If you look at the U17 roster that will be playing in the World cup 58% of the players will be from non DA teams at the time that they play:

    5 from ECNL teams
    5 from clubs that are leaving DA and back to ECNL by then
    1 from a non DA/non ECNL team
    only 8 players from DA teams

    how does US Soccer answer this - especially the 5 players that played in the DA and will now be back in ECNL??

    If you look at the Divisions - although 5 players are from the SW which seems like a lot - compared to the number of teams from SW that are in the DA playoffs it seems like they are missing talent. 8 of the rostered players are from 3 divisions that have either 1 or no teams advancing.

    A lot could be said about this but what it seems like to me is a lot of focus on players from divisions that are just not that competitive.
     
  4. SocalPapa

    SocalPapa

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    15 Most Impressive Underdog Wins/Ties (on paper):

    Wins
    U-18/19 Legends FC (14 RPI/15 Seed) beat NC Courage (3 RPI/3 Seed) 4-0
    U-16/17 Legends FC (14 RPI/9 Seed) beat Crossfire Premier (5 RPI/2 Seed) 4-2
    U-16/17 La Roca Futbol Club (35 RPI/27 Seed) beat IMG Academy (18 RPI/17 Seed) 3-1
    U-16/17 Real Colorado (10 RPI/13 Seed) beat FC Dallas (1 RPI/3 Seed) 2-1
    U-18/19 Sky Blue - PDA (7 RPI/5 Seed) beat Crossfire Premier (2 RPI/1 Seed) 2-1
    U-15 Real Colorado (30 RPI/20 Seed) beat Charlotte Soccer Academy (15 RPI/9 Seed) 2-0
    U-18/19 Michigan Hawks (17 RPI/13 Seed) beat San Diego Surf (6 RPI/7 Seed) 2-1
    U-16/17 Charlotte Soccer Academy (29 RPI/32 Seed) beat Real So Cal (17 RPI/20 Seed) 4-3
    U-16/17 Beach Futbol Club (31 RPI/31 Seed) beat Washington Spirit Academy - Virginia (20 RPI/18 Seed) 2-0

    Ties
    U-15 LAFC Slammers (26 RPI/29 Seed) tied Dallas Texans (4 RPI/15 Seed) 1-1
    U-16/17 Real So Cal (17 RPI/20 Seed) tied Nationals (2 RPI/4 Seed) 0-0
    U-18/19 La Roca Futbol Club (21 RPI/14 Seed) tied NTH Tophat (5 RPI/8 Seed) 0-0
    U-15 Charlotte Soccer Academy (15 RPI/9 Seed) tied Beach Futbol Club (3 RPI/5 Seed) 2-2
    U-15 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (22 RPI/10 Seed) tied San Jose Earthquakes (12 RPI/3 Seed) 2-2
    U-15 NC Courage (28 RPI/26 Seed) beat La Roca Futbol Club (18 RPI/14 Seed) 3-0
     
  5. Simisoccerfan

    Simisoccerfan Silver

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    It will be interesting to see if any of these 19 girls change teams/clubs.
     
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  6. Simisoccerfan

    Simisoccerfan Silver

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    How about the showcase teams?
     
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  7. Fact

    Fact Silver

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    SoCalPapa nice job on the stats.

    However you still have not gotten through to the clueless Pansy Simi. He does not get that the Showcase is an opportunity to get uncommitted players seen. The best coaches in this group don’t care about winning games but rather winning college opportunities for their players.
     
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  8. MWN

    MWN Silver

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    I believe you are looking at this wrong or not appreciating the Federation's motivations.

    The Federation views the Youth National Teams as goodwill ambassadors for youth soccer. The YNT makes no money for the federation and represents a significant expense. That said, if the Federation is going to field YNT teams, it wants to build the best all-star team it can. The YNT picks players, not leagues or clubs.

    Because the Federation truly wants to identify the "best" talent to invite to camp, it really is inconsequential what club or league these girls play in. The process is find the best 36 players in the age group and invite them to the DA camp. Of those 36, find the best 20 for the roster.

    If there are two players of equal ability, then politics may come into play and the DA player might get a nod over the non-DA player, but the Federation really don't care what club/league/region, just as long as they think they have the best talent.

    The DA league does enable the Federation to identify talent more easily because all these players are registered directly with the USSF and the YNT coaches attend the DA showcases and playoffs and have access to the game reports, film, etc., which will give DA players a leg up. That said, they still watch and will continue to watch the ECNL and to a smaller extent the ODP for that matter.
     
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  9. Soccer43

    Soccer43

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    everyone was told - players in the DA will get consistent training following an approved curriculum by top coaches, it is the pathway to the national team, it will have superior competition and premier development, etc, etc.

    Not proving to be true, US Soccer is pouring money into a program that doesn't seem to be doing anything other than causing chaos for the high school age players. I am not the only one that thinks this. Many of the top clubs with the top DA teams are leaving the system. I suppose people will say, oh, it's only been a year so you can't judge the success after only 1 year. I can definitely say that after one year it has created a lot of chaos and little to no benefit for the current players.
     
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  10. MWN

    MWN Silver

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    I don't know what to tell you, but whoever said all those things was "fortune telling" and assumed they could treat HS aged girls just like HS aged boys. The jury is still out and its too early to say how long.

    From my perspective the only pathway that truly matters from a Federation perspective should be the pathway to the National Team. It goes something like this:

    Boys/Men - Get identified by a professional club at age 14-15, hopefully circumvent Title 19 restrictions, move oversees, avoid college at all costs and go prove your self on a division 1 team. Return to the US and play on the National Team.

    Girls/Women - Go to college. Get drafted by a girls semi-pro league (WPSL), play in the league for less than a McDonald's Assistant Manager makes, become a superstar in the league, get invited to the National Team camp and punch your ticket as 1 of 22. Go back and train in your semi-pro league but now get subsidized with a living wage by the Federation.

    Please note, the National Team and the future of soccer is dictated by the professional level (or semi-pro level for women). I say semi-pro because any league that doesn't pay a living wage is semi-pro.

    All of that said, the girls DA is still young. The older girls U16+ that are Youth National "All-Star" Team material are already committed to their colleges and teams. The Girls USSDA does nothing for the HS aged group. Over the next few years it will grow stronger and you will see some excellent talent, but most girls have their goal as college and not the National Team, thus, the girls DA will not ever fulfill all of those promises, unless it changes its stance on HS soccer, which is much more important for girls. What you will also see is pockets of strength in less talent rich areas (Mid-West, etc.) where the ECNL will reign supreme. In So Cal there is enough talent for the ECNL and DA to thrive and all those girls will get their college exposure (assuming they are starters).
     
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  11. LadiesMan217

    LadiesMan217 Silver

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    My DD plays DA and is in high school. What chaos?

    A few of the top clubs (some are actually top in training) with top teams are leaving the system. Others will join DA and I suspect eventually (3-5 years) the defectors will be left out in the cold.

    Leaving the system because it cuts into profits and throws a big twist into your coaching staff (or lack thereof) is exactly what you just witnessed in SoCal. LAFC Slammers (and their ECNL board member) did not leave DA for the benefit of the players no matter how they will try to twist it. The consistent training by top coaches was not a year 1 objective but is coming. One qualified coach is not going to work.
     
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  12. SocalPapa

    SocalPapa

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    Wasn't showcase just 3 unseeded games? What type of analysis would you be looking for?
     
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  13. Soccer43

    Soccer43

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    One example for an '02 player:

    8th/9th graders played together in ECNL

    9th grade - new team/pure birth age inECNL so team from previous year split

    10th grade DA starts/could be another new team depending on how the club handled it - also some 02 girls in ECNL for two years now kicked to 2nd tier teams

    11th grade - dual age split and new team again

    12th grade - 1/2 of older girls graduate - new team again

    Now if your club was ECNL and then dropped to go DA or other clubs got DA that weren't in ECNL then changes in clubs as well. Maybe you were a fortunate one that had a smooth situation, others have not - count your blessings.
     
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  14. LadiesMan217

    LadiesMan217 Silver

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    I hear you. I believe in the u16/u17 and u18/u19 model. Heck I want a single u16/u17/u18/u19 model.
     
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  15. SocalPapa

    SocalPapa

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    DA already has 15 (or so) clubs that have no business participating in elite soccer. Only one of the new clubs joining next season looks to have a chance at being even an average-level DA team. Slammers is not only a top club, they are undefeated at all 3 age levels in the DA playoffs (so far), with a record of 10-0-2. Slammers will do fine with ECNL. Short term or long term, I can't see this as anything other than a loss for DA.
     
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  16. LadiesMan217

    LadiesMan217 Silver

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    Slammers is a winning club attracting some of the top players to their top team - attracted my DD. We won almost every game except vs Blues playing their kickball (hey it works) and a few eastern teams that actually train the girls the game. It was fun to win. My DD learned very little from the club - no development other than the experience on the field during games. I expect most people to call it a top club... All good.
     
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  17. Josep

    Josep Bronze

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    The one thing I never see mentioned here in all of this Slammers leaving DA and DA is so awful hyperbole is what about slammers having 2 ecnl teams?

    Slammers truly is the elite club with two ecnl teams and by having 2 teams they have some flexibility to draw more and dilute the pool, and shift resources perhaps? In my limited view of things, I see this being more of a factor of dilution and hurting the other clubs than DA. It’s not that they just left DA for ECNL. ECNL gave them two teams, right?
     
  18. SocalPapa

    SocalPapa

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    I can't speak to the training your DD received, but the ability of a club to put together teams of girls with like/exceptional talent would seem to be a positive for their players' development.
     
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  19. timbuck

    timbuck

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    Seeing the DA semi finals posted on FB
    Why does US Soccer Development Academy include teams from Canada? Montreal Impact (boys u16/17) and Vancouver Whitecaps (Boys u18/19) have teams in the semis.
    Isn’t the purpose of the DA to identify and develop players for the US National Teams?
    Why include Canada? Isn’t Canada worse off than the US in terms of soccer performance? How do they have 2 teams make it this far?
     
  20. younothat

    younothat Silver

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    MLS

    There are several Nationalities that have players in the DA: Canada, Mexico, France, Etc. Galaxy has players that play for the Mexican Youth National Teams for example.
     

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